891
FXUS62 KJAX 290145
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
945 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend. Coastal
  Flood Warning Widespread Moderate Tidal Flooding along the

- Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterway & St. Johns River Basin through
  Thursday. Extended Duration of Moderate Tidal Flooding within
  the St. Johns River Basin. High Surf Advisory through
  Thursday Night at Northeast FL Beaches. High Risk for Rip
  Currents at all Area Beaches through the Upcoming Weekend.
  Major Beach Erosion around Times of High Tide through Friday.
  Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic Waters through Early
  Friday Morning. Gusty Northeasterly Winds Continue at Coastal
  Locations through Friday

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night

&&

.UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast this evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Main Highlights:

- Coastal Flood Warnings Remain in Effect through Thursday Night
along coastal locations of Northeast FL and Southeast GA, the
Intracoastal Waterway, and the Entirety of the St. Johns River
basin.

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend.
Extended Duration of Moderate Tidal Flooding within the St. Johns
River Basin Continues into the Upcoming Weekend. High Surf Advisory
through Thursday Night at the Northeast FL Beaches. High Risk for
Rip Currents at all Area Beaches through the Upcoming Weekend. Major
Beach Erosion around Times of High Tide through Friday. Small Craft
Advisory for the Atlantic Waters through at least Friday. Gusty
Northeasterly Winds Continue at Coastal Locations through Friday.

A dry airmass remains over the area with current GOES-East derived
Total Precipitable Water imagery depicting PWATs from 0.75 to 1.0
inches across SE GA and 1.0 to 1.35 inches across NE FL. Not
expecting much in the way of showers aside from offshore showers
shifting towards coastal locations south of the JAX metro thanks to
the persistent breezy to gusty northeasterly onshore flow. With the
flow, streaks of lower stratus and stratocumulus clouds continue to
push onshore over NE FL locations. Otherwise, daytime highs expected
in the mid 70s to lower 80s with the cooler temperatures along the
coast thanks to the onshore flow. By the evening hours, isolated to
scattered showers are expected to continue to push towards the coast
of NE FL. Overnight Lows in the lower to mid 60s across SE GA and
the Suwannee Valley Region, while mid 60s to lower 70s across the
rest of NE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period: Thursday through Friday night

- Coastal hazards continue

Weakening high pressure will be centered to the north northeast
Thursday, as an inverted trough moves west across southern FL. The
gradient between these features will continue to provide elevated
flow across area waters. With the flow from the northeast, inland
areas will have less wind than closer to the coast. Convergence
associated with gradient between features will be strongest near the
NE FL coast, resulting in showers. Temperatures will be near
seasonal levels near the coast, but above average further inland
Thursday. The northeast flow will provide a wide range in
temperatures Thursday night, with lows over inland SE GA in the
upper 50s, and upper 60s over much of NE FL.

Another high will build to the northwest Friday, then north Friday
night, as weak inverted troughs move through the onshore flow. A few
showers will be expected across coastal NE FL due to the weak
troughs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period: Saturday through Wednesday

- High risk of rip currents continues

High pressure to the north, will move away toward the northeast on
Sunday, as an area of low pressure lifts northeast out of the Gulf.

This low will track across the area Sunday night, then to the north
northeast Monday through Tuesday.

The region will be between high pressure ridging to the northeast
and an area of low pressure to the west northwest.

Rain chances will increase Saturday night through Sunday in response
to this low. Lower shower chances are then expected for Monday
through Wednesday.

High temperatures will be near or little below seasonal average this
period. Lows will trend above average.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
00Z TAF period will begin with a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions with
tempo restrictions for IFR restrictions through 03Z at CRG and SSI.
North northeast winds 10-15 knots will decrease to around 10 knots
and 8-10 knots inland with Atlantic stratocumulus shifting onshore
with prevailing MVFR ceilings 1.0-2.0 kft. moisture will bring in
some showers to SGJ with MVFR restrictions for VSBY and CLNGs near
1.0 kft.

High pressure will shift from the north to the north northeast on
Thursday as a trough moves westward from the Bahamas into south FL.
Elevated winds will not be as high as Wednesday, but increase after
13Z-15Z to around 14-18 knots gusting to 25 knots at the coast while
12-15 knots inland with gusts to 20-25 knots. MVFR ceilings 2.5-3.0
kft will persist into the afternoon for the coastal and duval county
terminals in Northeast FL, lifting to VFR levels at GNV and
scattering out at SSI. Coastal showers will shift onshore to SGJ
and CRG during much of the day with VCSH noted while chances too low
at the remaining TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...


Strong high pressure situated over New England will shift east of
the New England coast overnight as weak low pressure lingers near
southeast FL into Thursday morning. The high pressure ridge axis
will extend from the western north Atlantic waters west southwest
into the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday as the low to the south moves
west across southern FL before weakening. The flow between these two
features will create gusty northeasterly winds through Friday,
keeping Small Craft Advisory conditions in place throughout our
local waters.

Coastal troughing situated over our near shore waters will remain in
place through Saturday, with this feature generating scattered
showers across the local Northeast FL waters tonight. Periods of
isolated to widely scattered showers will then be possible from
Thursday through Sunday morning. Another strong high pressure center
building southeastward from New England and the Mid-Atlantic states
this weekend will result in breezy easterly winds across our local
waters, with another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible as seas build. A disturbance aloft moving across our area
on Sunday and Monday may generate numerous showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High Surf Advisories remain in
effect for the northeast FL beaches through Thursday night, where
breakers of 6 to 9 feet will prevail. Breakers of 3 to 6 feet will
prevail at the southeast GA beaches through Thursday. These
elevated, rough surf conditions will maintain a high risk of deadly
rip currents at all area beaches through the upcoming weekend, and
major beach erosion is likely to occur around times of high tide
during this extended duration onshore wind event.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated flow will continue between high pressure to the north and
an inverted trough to the north through Thursday. Another high will
build to the northwest then north Friday through Saturday. An area
of low pressure will track northeast across the area Sunday into
Monday. This low will then move to the northeast of area Tuesday.

The greatest chance for rain, along with thunderstorms, this period
will be over the weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation
is not expected during the next several days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Northeasterly winds will remain breezy to windy and will combine
with high astronomical tides due to today`s lunar perigee to
maintain moderate tidal flooding through Thursday along our local
Atlantic coast and within the Intracoastal Waterway (ICWW) and the
entirety of the St. Johns River basin. Water levels will generally
reach 2-3 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during times of
high tide through Thursday. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect
for coastal locations of southeast GA and northeast FL, in addition
to within the ICWW and St. Johns River basin through Thursday night.
Moderate tidal flooding may linger into the upcoming weekend within
the St. Johns River basin, with minor flooding potential continuing
around times of high tide along the Atlantic coast and within the
St. Johns River The long duration of this strong onshore wind event
will likely produce major beach erosion during each high tide cycle
through at least Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  81  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  65  75  64  75 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  66  78  66  78 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  70  77  69  78 /  50  50  20  30
GNV  66  81  67  82 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  68  83  68  84 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ038-124-125-
     132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$