627
FXUS62 KJAX 290443
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1243 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dangerously Hot & Humid Weather Continues. Extreme Heat
  Warning & Heat Advisory Today, Heat Indices of 110-115
  Possible

- Strong to Severe Thunderstorms this Afternoon and Evening.
  Damaging Wind Gusts of 50-70 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes,
  and Localized Flooding Due to Heavy Downpours are Possible

- Numerous Mainly Afternoon & Evening TStorms Thursday through
  Monday. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours Could Result in
  Localized Flooding

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights For Today and Tonight:

- Near Record Heat with Dangerous Heat Indices of 108-115F Today and
Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are now in effect.

- Scattered Severe Storms late this afternoon through tonight with
damaging winds of 50-70 mph possible along with heavy downpours and
localized flooding

Warm temps early this morning around 80F will help set the stage for
extreme heat this afternoon as breezy West-Southwest flow ahead of
southward moving frontal boundary will provide for good mixing and
enough sunshine to push Max Temps into the middle to upper 90s by
early this afternoon, which will combine with slightly higher dew
point temps today into the mid/upper 70s, which will push Heat
Indices into the 110-115F range and have posted an Extreme Heat
Warning for most of NE FL and SE GA near the FL/GA border and left
the Heat Advisory headlines in place across inland SE GA and Flagler
and Marion counties where Heat Indices may stay in the 108-112F
range. For now this Max Temp/Heat Index forecast should remain on
track as long as the convective debris clouds over the region
dissipate this morning and afternoon convection holds off until at
least the 2-4 pm time frame. Some Hi-Res models develop convection
by the early afternoon, which would lead to the forecast falling
short of reaching the current Extreme Heat headlines in place.

Due to the extreme heat, pre-frontal strong to severe storms are
still expected to break out across SE GA by early afternoon and
across NE FL by the mid-late afternoon hours and with high mixed
CAPE values of 3000-4000J, expect scattered severe storms with the
main threat of damaging downburst winds of 50-70 mph possible and
with PWATs of 2 inches or more, expect intense and heavy downpours
with some training of storm activity from West to East which will
lead to localized flood threat, mainly in urban areas due to the
ongoing drought across most of the region.

These strong to severe storms will be ongoing in waves from West to
East as they move slowly southward through SE GA during the early
evening hours and continuing across NE FL through the overnight
hours. The severe threat will slowly lessen after midnight with loss
of surface heating, but the heavy rainfall threat will continue as
the southward progression of storms across NE FL slows towards
morning and will continue to push off the NE Gulf and into inland NE
FL impacting the OCF/GNV metro areas and I-75 corridor through
sunrise. Temps still above normal but falling into the lower/middle
70s SE GA and into the mid/upper 70s NE FL in the more rain cooled
air mass from storm activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong to Severe
Storms Possible

- Heat Advisory Possible Thursday for Northeast FL & the Coast

Frontal boundary will settle essentially right over southeast GA
counties on Thursday, moving very little into Thursday Night.
Numerous to widespread convection will be expected accordingly,
especially from about I-10 southward in NE FL thanks to some drier
air invading southeast GA north of the boundary. Similar to
Wednesday, heavy downpours and strong downbursts will be possible
for any showers and storms that develop during the afternoon to
evening hours. Guidance is in good agreement that some showers and
isolated t`storms linger into at least the start of Thursday Night
as well, mainly over southern areas.

Even despite numerous convection over northeast FL, parts of
northeast FL and the coast may flirt with Heat Advisory criteria
thanks to the higher dew points/humidity south of the front. Mid
90s will be common from near the I-10 corridor north into
southeast GA, and low 90s further south. Lows Thursday Night
will be mild, though not as mild as the few night previous:
generally in the low to mid 70s.

The frontal boundary nudges a bit northward on Friday as a weak
upper ridge builds over the region and surface ridging also
strengthens slightly. This will overall result in a similar regime
with respect to convective coverage, as some drier air aloft
lingering over interior GA will continue to focus activity across
northeast FL as well as towards the I-95 corridor near the sea
breeze in southwest flow. Isolated strong to severe downbursts once
will be possible, as high temperatures top out in a similar range to
Thursday. Also similar to Thursday Night, Friday Night will likely
feature some lingering showers and isolated t`storm into at least
the first half of the night with similar lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily Rounds of Mainly Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms,
Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible

The pattern looks to remain active for the upcoming weekend and
likely into next week as well, as a frontal zone lingers just north
of the region and energy from another upper trough affects the
southeastern states. This regime as well as abundant moisture each
day will support at least numerous showers and t`storms daily,
as well as strong downburst and heavy rainfall potential.
Temperatures overall trend near to slightly below normal during
the long term period given the more active convective pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue overnight and into the start of
Wednesday with increasing coverage of thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon and potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms
over the terminals. Wednesday, a front will approach the area from
the north with breezy west to southwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts
to 20 knots across the Northeast FL TAF sites as the strong flow
will not favor the Atlantic seabreeze moving onshore. Strong heating
and an approaching wave aloft associated with the cold front will
lead to increasing chances for thunderstorms. Have VCTS after 18Z
Wednesday with PROB30 groups at this time for strong thunderstorms
producing wind gusts up to 30 knots and IFR restrictions from very
heavy downpours. Wind gusts in the afternoon may need to be adjusted
upwards in subsequent forecasts due to potential for isolated severe
storms. There is potential for another round of storms after the end
of the period from 00Z-06Z Wednesday night into very early Thursday.
After the storms, VFR conditions will resume late in the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...


Active weather pattern develops today with a surge of southwest
winds to Small Craft Exercise Caution levels which will continue
through tonight. A frontal boundary will then sink into the Deep
South late this week, with this feature becoming stationary during
the weekend. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible well in
advance of this front this afternoon and evening, with stronger
storms potentially producing damaging wind gusts, waterspouts,
frequent lightning strikes, and torrential downpours. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will continue across the northeast Florida
waters on Thursday and Friday, with less coverage currently forecast
for the Georgia waters. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will then
overspread all of our local waters during the upcoming weekend.
Outside of expected thunderstorm activity, southwesterly winds will
prevail with Caution conditions likely through the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents: Low to marginal moderate risk of rip currents is
expected through the end of the week at NE FL and SE GA beaches with
surf/breakers of only 1-2 feet due to the offshore flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Heat Indices Up To 110-115F Today

- Patchy High Daytime Dispersions Inland Through Friday

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Severe Storms Possible Today

A frontal boundary will slide southward throughout the day today,
with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and
evening ahead of the front. Some strong to severe storms will be
possible, with strong gusts of 40-60 mph being the primary potential
hazard. Before the onset of the showers and storms, hot and
more humid conditions will be expected, with an Extreme Heat
Warning in effect for most of the area surrounding the I-10
corridor, and Heat Advisories elsewhere. Breezy southwesterly
flow in the low levels will result in good dispersions for most
as daytime mixing will be very efficient. Some patchy high
dispersions will be possible as well, especially over southeast
GA. An active pattern looks to persist into this weekend as
another frontal boundary approaches the region. Mixing of
slightly drier air over interior southeast GA through Friday
will drop minRH values to around 35-40%, but above any critical
thresholds.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected during
the next several mornings. As mentioned above, isolated to widely
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today. Gusts
up to 40-60 mph will be possible in these storms as well as erratic
winds in/nearby any storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures and record warm minimum
temperatures at our designated climate sites on Wednesday:

July 29:
KJAX: 101/2025   80/1877
KGNV: 100/2025   79/2025
KAMG: 99/2025    77/2017
KCRG: 101/2016   79/2017

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  98  74  96  73 /  30  40  30  10
SSI  96  77  96  78 /  60  60  30  20
JAX  98  76  95  74 /  50  50  60  40
SGJ  96  76  93  75 /  30  40  60  50
GNV  95  76  92  73 /  40  50  70  40
OCF  92  75  90  75 /  40  60  80  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132-
     136-137-220-225-232-233-236-237-322-325-333-422-425-433-
     522-533-633.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ038-138-140-240-340.
GA...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for GAZ153-154-162-163-165-166-264-350-364.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ132>136-149-151-152-250.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$