247
FXUS62 KJAX 290411
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1211 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor Tidal Flooding for NE FL Atlantic beachfront and the St.
  Johns River basin within Duval County through this evening

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at local beaches

- Isolated Thunderstorm Activity Returns Mid to Late Week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Moderate rip current risk at Atlantic beaches

- Minor flooding will continue along the St. Johns River Basin
during times of high tide through this evening

Atmospheric moisture levels will continue to slowly increase as the
steering flow becomes southerly today and southeasterly tonight with
PWATs increasing to 1.5-1.7 inches NE FL and 1.3-1.5 inches for SE
GA. This combined with diurnal heating and inland moving East Coast
sea breeze should be enough to trigger isolated showers across NE FL
this afternoon with PoPs in the 15-25% range, while SE GA should
remain mostly dry. Temps will continue at above normal levels with
highs around 90F over inland areas and middle 80s along the Atlantic
Coast. Any isolated shower activity over inland areas will fade
around sunset, then as flow becomes more Southeasterly expect
scattered showers and isolated to push into the offshore NE FL
coastal waters and may push closer to the NE FL coast towards
morning, but overall rainfall chances remain less than 20 percent.
Low temps will continue to trend back closer to normal values with
lower/middle 60s over inland SE GA and middle/upper 60s over inland
NE FL and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Return to summer like pattern: Scattered thunderstorms Wednesday
and Thursday, mainly NE FL, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

A moistening southeasterly flow will lift the old stalled front well
to north by Wednesday. A weak inverted low level trough offshore
will gradually slide northwestward through Wednesday night,
increasing chances to 40-60% across NE FL by Thursday afternoon as
precipitable water will push toward 1.8"-2.0". There is some
uncertainty in the pace at which deep moisture will push across SE
GA and there`s potential for thunderstorm coverage to trend to
scattered by Thursday with the primary focus for thunderstorm
development along the east coast sea breeze.

The faster Atlantic sea breeze and onshore flow will keep the
coastal counties cooler by 3-6 degrees each day (mid/upper 80s)
while inland areas push toward the 90 degree mark or Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon. Lows will be in the upper 60s inland and low 70s
at the coast Wednesday night and increase to mid/low 70s areawide as
dewpoints increase Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period (Friday through Monday):

- Above normal thunderstorm chances with strong to marginally severe
storms possible Sunday.

- Local Nor`easter Conditions potential next week.

By the end of the week, stacked upper and lower ridging will
decouple as upper ridging retrogrades across the Florida
peninsula this weekend. Though there will be enhanced
subsidence beneath the ridge, which may mitigate coverage
across northeast FL, there will be substantial supply of deep
moisture spread across the area by southeasterly flow.
Convergence along the Atlantic sea breeze will be the primary
focus for scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the
weekend. The blocking ridge over the FL appears to breakdown and
slide southwestward as a stronger upstream shortwave dive
approaches Sunday night and pushing across the area Monday. The
timing of the frontal passage may favor an elevated potential
for stronger possibly severe convection Monday.

Ensemble guidance is in fair agreement with another strong
northeasterly wind surge behind the front through the first half of
next week. With the coinciding elevated astronomical tides as the
new moon approaches, tidal flooding is to expected again and may
linger for several days. Further evaluation on the degree of tidal
flooding will come throughout the next week.

Mostly cloudy, diurnal convection, and a gradually lowering sun
angle will keep temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 each
day with humidity making it feel like its in the upper 90s to
lower 100s each day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions with generally light and variable winds continue
through the period. Patchy fog will be possible for GNV/VQQ around
08-12Z. Have TEMPOs for lower VSBYs. Rainfall chances remain too low
around 20% or less for any inclusion at this time.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure over the region early this week with light and
variable winds, turning onshore in the afternoon over the nearshore
waters from the Atlantic seabreeze circulation. High pressure will
shift northeast of the waters mid to late week with a predominant
east to southeast flow developing and continuing into this weekend.
Increasing moisture in the onshore flow will bring an increase to
numerous showers and embedded thunderstorm activity for Thursday and
Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents: Long period swells and slightly elevated surf heights
around 2 ft range today and expect a Moderate Risk of Rip currents
through Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Locally Low Dispersion For Inland Se Ga This Afternoon
     CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FOR INLAND SE GA THIS
- Afternoon

Light to near absent transport winds and a slow-moving sea breeze
will lead to low inland dispersion this afternoon across inland
areas, mainly in southeast GA where gradual mixing will drop
humidity down to near critical. Elsewhere, conditions will be mostly
dry but an isolated shower across north-central FL cannot be ruled
out during the late afternoon.

Through the second half of the week, transport flow will shift
southeasterly leading to an upward trend in moisture and afternoon
dispersions. With the return of moisture over the area, chances of
showers and storms increase with highest chances over north central
FL as scattered showers and isolated storms will Wednesday and
Thursday. By the end of the week, coverage expands but highest
thunderstorm chances remain focused across northeast FL.

Fog Potential...Patchy fog over inland locations Tonight, mainly for
inland southeast GA where cooler temps, calm conditions, and clear
skies are likely.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical higher than normal tides will continue into this
evening with Minor Flooding occurring during times of high tide
within the St. Johns River Basin and along the NE FL Atlantic
coast/ICWW. Water levels peak during high tide between 1.5 - 2 feet
above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) through this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  65  89  67 /  10  10  20   0
SSI  85  73  84  75 /  10  10  10   0
JAX  90  69  86  69 /  10  10  20   0
SGJ  87  70  84  74 /  20  20  30  10
GNV  89  68  88  67 /  20  10  50   0
OCF  89  68  89  69 /  20  20  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ125-
     132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$