027
FXUS62 KJAX 141106
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
706 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Oppressive Heat & Humidity Continues Area -Wide. For Today,
Extreme Heat Warning for Coastal Southeast GA and Heat Advisory
elsewhere. Daily Heat Advisories Likely Continue for Much of Our
Area into Next Week.

- A Few Strong Thunderstorms this Afternoon/Evening & Saturday.
  Scattered Thunderstorms Today and Saturday. Isolated strong
Damaging Wind Gusts of 40-55 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes & Heavy
Downpours are Possible.

- Daily Scattered Afternoon & Evening thunderstorms Sunday into mid
next week.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...

Prevailing VFR conditions forecast through this TAF cycle. The
main aviation concern will be thunderstorms this afternoon.
Changed the PROB30 groups for TSRA at all terminals based to
TEMPO based on higher confidence compared to the 6Z issuance.
Future amendments may be necessary depending on convective
evolution. Light west winds are on tap (higher and erratic in
and around thunderstorms) with a southerly wind at the coastal
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
A trough of low pressure will develop over the southeast states
through the weekend while a high pressure ridge remains
positioned over the eastern Gulf and central Florida. This will
result in westerly winds during the next several days, with the
sea breeze shifting winds to southeast or south over the near
shore waters each afternoon, followed by south evening wind
surges that may briefly increase speeds to near caution levels
before subsiding after midnight. Stronger offshore flow may
develop Monday and Tuesday next week. Isolated to scattered
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will remain possible
each day through the upcoming weekend, and some of the storms
will be capable of producing strong gusty winds and locally high
seas.

Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds and little if any east-
southeast swell energy will keep surf heights near or below 2 feet
at area beaches. Thus, generally low risk of rip currents through
Friday. Only heightened risk of rip currents will be around piers
and jetties and also around the times of low tide, which for today
and Friday will be around 3 PM to 5 PM. Going into the weekend,
there is not much change with low surf heights so the low risk of
rips may continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Heat Headlines in Effect

Hazardous heat and daily afternoon thunderstorms are main fire
weather concerns through the weekend. Prevailing west to southwest
winds are expected outside of the east-coast seabreeze and erratic
directional thunderstorm outflow boundaries. Very warm overnight
lows will not provide much relief. However, isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms may provide some relief and/or
limit the duration of heat index values of advisory level heat
indices.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected. Any late-
night or early-morning fog should be shallow and patchy, mainly in
areas that receive locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  75  96  76 /  50  20  50  10
SSI  95  79  95  80 /  50  10  50  10
JAX  95  76  96  77 /  50  20  60  10
SGJ  94  77  95  77 /  40  10  30  10
GNV  95  74  95  75 /  60  30  30  10
OCF  96  75  96  75 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
     136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
     422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ132>136-149-151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for GAZ153-154-165-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$