953
FXUS62 KJAX 030113
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
813 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Colder than normal temps continue this evening, and we have seen
dewpoints quite low over southeast GA recently. A good setup for
radiational cooling is in store, and winds will be dropping off
as broad high pressure moves in tonight. Already see that most
sites have a calm wind. Given the colder airmass and that models
underperformed with lows last night, have tweaked lows down slightly
in some areas for tonight. This resulted in expansion of the freeze
warning and the frost advisory. For the southern most areas of
the freeze and frost, the meeting of criteria will be bit more
marginal. Otherwise, little other change through Friday with
below normal highs again on Friday with occasionally breezy
westerly flow.

No major changes for the marine forecast update this evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 127 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

Rest of Today...Cold High pressure settles over the SE US states
with a dry Northwest flow across NE FL/SE GA. Mostly sunny skies
expected with just a few cirrus clouds aloft at times, mainly
across NE FL through the rest of the day. Max temps will remain
below normal with highs only in the upper 50s across SE GA and
lower 60s across NE FL. Surface winds will generally be out of the
North at 5-10 mph over inland areas and 10-15 mph along the
Atlantic Coast and St. Johns River Basin.

Tonight...High pressure over the SE States will provide a ridge
across the local area and winds will become near calm over inland
areas under Mostly Clear skies to set up excellent radiational
cooling conditions and will upgrade and expand the Freeze Watch
to a Freeze Warning across all of inland SE GA and along the I-10
corridor West of Jacksonville where lows will drop into the 30-32F
range, along with a Frost Advisory for Coastal SE GA away from
the beaches and along the US 301 corridor in NE FL from JAX-GNV-
OCF, mainly west of the St. Johns River where lows will drop into
the 33-35F range along with widespread Frost Formation. There
still will be some patchy/areas of Frost possible in normally
colder locations for the Atlantic Coastal Counties/I-95 corridor
and along the St. Johns River Basin where temps drop into the
middle to upper 30s, but not enough confidence to post a Frost
Advisory at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 127 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

Weak high pressure over the area Friday with a dry cold front
beginning to make its way into southeast Georgia from the
northwest by the afternoon. As the cold front pushes in, westerly
winds will will increase creating breezy conditions area wide by
the afternoon. Daytime high temperatures in the low 60s over
southeast Georgia and low to mid 60s over northeast Florida. The
cold front will continue to make its way through from the
northwest to the southeast and reach northeast Florida in the
evening hours. Overnight lows will be in the mid 30s over
southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley and upper 30s to low 40s
along the coast and southeast Florida.

Cool dry air fills in behind the front for Saturday with winds
slowing down in the afternoon as pressure gradients loosen up.
Expect clear skies with daytime highs in the mid to upper 50s over
southeast Georgia and mid 50s to low 60s over northeast Florida.
Overnight, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s creating light freeze and frost
conditions over southeast Georgia and low 30s for inland northeast
Florida. Frost will be widespread over southeast Florida extending
to the coast where temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 127 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

Moisture begins to fill back in to the area Sunday, creating
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. High pressure over the area
creates winds out out of the east in the morning hours shifting to
southerly as the high pressure makes its way into the Atlantic in
the afternoon. Moisture continues to increase over the area into
Monday as another cold front pushes in from the northwest,
increasing cloud cover and increasing chances for precipitation in
the early morning hours over southeast Georgia. Expect widespread
scattered showers over the area Monday as the cold front pushes
through the area in the afternoon and clearing out in the evening
hours. cold high pressure will settle in behind the front through
Thursday, bringing cooler drier air to the area.

Temperatures will be near to above normal Sunday and Monday with
temperatures in the 60s and low 70s ahead of the approaching
front, dropping quickly below normal for the rest of the week
behind the front into the upper 40s over southeast Georgia and
upper 40s to mid 50s over northeast Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 800 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

VFR. Mainly thin cirrus clouds tonight. Maintained a chance of MVFR
vsby about 07z-11z for VQQ, but should be brief. Winds will be light
to calm tonight, and increase from the west and northwest on
Friday as the high pressure ridge shifts south of the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 127 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

North winds will continue through Friday Morning at 10-15 knots
with seas 2-4 feet as high pressure remains NW of the local
waters. Next dry cold frontal boundary will push through Friday
afternoon and will increase Northwest winds back into the 15-25
knot range Friday Night and have posted SCA headlines for the
offshore waters, while not as high confidence for the nearshore
waters which may remain in the 15-20 knot range and SCEC headlines
for Friday Night. The gusty Northwest flow will slowly subside by
Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds over the waters. Winds
will become Southwest by Sunday and start to increase Sunday night
ahead of approaching strong cold front and Small Craft Advisory
headlines are expected for all waters on Monday with potential for
frequent gusts to Gale Force with the frontal passage Monday
afternoon and night. Cold offshore Northwest flow will continue on
Tuesday with likely SCA headlines remaining in place for the
offshore waters.

Rip Currents: Offshore flow will keep surf/breakers mainly in the
1-2 ft range and expect a Low Risk of Rip currents to continue the
rest of this week and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  30  60  33  53 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  39  61  39  55 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  33  63  38  57 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  38  62  41  57 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  32  63  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  34  65  38  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-120-136-220-225-232-236-322-422-425-522.

     Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ033-124-125-
     132-137-237-240-325-340.

GA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.

     Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 4 PM EST Saturday for
     AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$