711
FXUS62 KJAX 300600
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Showers and thunderstorms pivoting northward along the southeast
GA coast will arrive at SSI towards 0630Z, with briefly gusty
winds and IFR visibilities possible through the overnight hours as
activity moves slowly. Showers and thunderstorms may also develop
overnight near the CRG and JAX terminals, but confidence in this
scenario is decreasing, and we will likely amend this TAFs to
indicate vicinity shower coverage, as trends are for convection to
remain along the Atlantic coast or just offshore. Periods of MVFR
ceilings are possible overnight at the Duval County terminals and
SGJ, with IFR to LIFR conditions likely developing during the
predawn and early morning hours at GNV. A break in convective
activity is expected towards sunrise at SSI, with MVFR ceilings
likely to continue for much of the day on Saturday. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms is then expected to shift from
northwest to southeast across our area on Saturday afternoon and
evening. Due to low confidence in timing and coverage, PROB30
groups for briefly gusty winds and IFR to MVFR visibilities during
heavier downpours were used at each TAF site during the afternoon
and early evening hours. Once convection shifts southeast of the
terminals after 02Z Sunday, IFR ceilings will likely develop at
SSI, with low MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings then spreading
southward across the northeast FL terminals towards the end of the
TAF period, or during the overnight hours on Saturday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 744 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Waves of showers and isolated storms will continue to move
eastward across the area tonight as upper level short wave energy
passes overhead with a surface front meandering across the local
area. This evening, the front was just south of the NE FL I-10
corridor, with a few isolated storms across the `unstable` sector
south of the front and offshore over the adjacent coastal waters,
while more stratiform areas of rain impacted southeast GA where
cooler temperatures and a more stable airmass prevailed. Through
the night, expect a resurrection of toward the Atlantic coast,
extending inland especially across SE GA toward daybreak Saturday
as the next short wave trough approaches and the surface front
across NE FL pivots northward, with increasing isentropic lift
north of the boundary generating more numerous showers and
isolated storms. Locally heavy rainfall will be more likely
tonight after midnight toward coastal areas, with a few rotating
cells possible over the coastal waters over the coastal waters
near and south of the front toward sunrise.

Mostly cloudy skies prevail with mild lows in the low/mid 70s to
near upper 60s toward the Altamaha River Sound.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday Night)

Generally the same old song and dance pattern continues for the
first two thirds of the holiday weekend, as little change with
respect to the nearly stalled frontal boundary is expected.
Saturday is expected to be particularly unsettled as a shortwave
impulse digs southeastward around the base of an upper trough,
helping to support better lift as well as some slightly cooler
temperatures aloft. Instability will likely be the largest
uncertainty given plenty of cloud cover, some showers and isolated
t`storms likely affecting some areas in the morning hours, in
addition to temperatures only topping out in the low to mid 80s
for most. However, the developing sea breeze combined with the
presence of the front and weak shortwave should be enough to fire
convection during the afternoon and evening hours, with the main
focus area being from about I-10 southward in northeast FL. Heavy
rainfall will be the main hazard, though some isolated stronger
cells that take advantage of the highest instability could produce
downbursts of 40+ mph. A few showers continue overnight near the
coast, but mostly clear to partly cloudy otherwise with lows in
the upper 60s to mid 70s expected.

Flow aloft shifts towards the northwest on Sunday and Sunday
Night as high pressure ridging to the north of the area tries to
build slightly further south into northeast FL. This will both
increase the northeasterly onshore flow and push the frontal
boundary further southward, and temper rain chances the further
north and west you go with some drier air aloft. However, closer
to the boundary and higher moisture in northeast FL will be where
you will find the highest chances for showers and t`storms with
the onshore breeze, especially for areas where diurnal instability
peaks higher with less chances of rain during the morning hours.
High temps will be slightly warmer Sunday, though still generally
in the mid 80s. Isolated to widely scattered showers may once
again affect areas near the coast Sunday Night with lows in the
upper 60s to mid 70s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through next Friday)

Fall-like upper troughing will continue to be the main driving
force of our weather through much of the long term period,
featuring only some "wobbling" north and south of a frontal
boundary and several shortwave impulses moving around the base of
the trough across or just north of the region. This pattern/regime
will continue an unsettled pattern for most of the area but
especially for northeast FL, featuring daily scattered to numerous
showers and t`storms and a breezy northeasterly onshore flow with
ridging located to our north. Towards the end of the long term
period, guidance suggests that the base of the upper trough may
dig all the way into north an central FL, which could once again
bring a surge of drier air across the region. Temperatures start
below normal for the look term before trending towards near normal
by Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...

A stationary front will linger through the weekend as high
pressure strengthens from the north, sending a surge of
northeasterly winds into the waters by Sunday. Strengthening high
pressure will continue breezy northeasterly winds through Monday
as wedges south along the Mid Atlantic and southeastern coast.
Winds will peak near Small Craft Advisory levels Monday and
gradually weaken through Wednesday. Winds are expected to shift
offshore as a trough of low pressure lifts out of the Gulf. With
little movement in the front, waves of showers and embedded
thunderstorms are expected through Monday. There will be the
potential for isolated strong storms capable of excessive
lightning, strong winds, and isolated waterspouts with the
stronger activity.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk through Saturday; a surge of
northeast winds and building surf will increase Rip Current risk
to high levels on Sunday for SE GA beaches and increase at NE FL
beaches by Labor Day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 421 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Locally heavy downpours will be possible this afternoon and
evening, especially for locations along and south of the
Interstate 10 corridor. The Weather Prediction Center has
outlooked most of our area within a "Marginal" Risk (Level 1 of 4)
for Excessive Rainfall later today. Downpours will likely become
more widespread on Saturday afternoon and evening, with waves of
downpours likely continuing through Sunday area-wide. Marginal
Risks for Excessive Rainfall continue this weekend, with the
threat for localized flooding then shifting to northeast and north
central FL during the early to middle portions of next week. As
ground conditions continue to become more saturated, Flood Watches
could be issued during the weekend and early next week, especially
for northeast and north central FL, where total rainfall amounts
of 2-5 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  67  83  66 /  80  20  40  10
SSI  82  74  83  73 /  90  50  70  40
JAX  85  72  85  71 /  80  40  80  40
SGJ  86  73  86  74 /  90  50  80  50
GNV  88  71  88  70 /  80  40  70  20
OCF  88  71  87  72 /  70  30  80  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$