274
FXUS62 KJAX 271154
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
754 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Hot & Humid Weather Continues. Heat Advisory in effect Today
  and expected again on Tuesday. Heat Indices up to 111
  Possible. Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Watches will
  likely be needed for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches.

- Scattered Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Strong
  Storms, Frequent Lightning Strikes & Locally Heavy Downpours
  Possible. Best chance of storms is across inland areas from
  4pm-10pm.

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms
  Tuesday.

- Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Expected on Wednesday and
  Wednesday Evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights For Today and Tonight:

- Heat Advisory Today for NE FL/most of SE GA, Heat Indices
  107-111F.

- Lower rainfall chances, but isolated strong/severe storms
  possible.

Weak shortwave aloft will push southward through the region
early this morning and will allow for slightly drier air mass
to filter in aloft with PWATs falling into the 1.6-1.8 inch
range by this afternoon. This feature will allow for some
isolated showers and storms this morning, but overall expect
mostly dry conditions with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny
this afternoon and will allow for Max temps into the mid/upper
90s over inland areas, while East coast sea breeze developing
and pushing inland to the I-95 corridor will hold Atlantic
Coastal locations with highs in the lower to middle 90s. These
temps combined with the humid air mass will push Heat Indices
into the 107-111F range across all of NE FL and most of SE GA to
the south/east of Waycross and have posted Heat Advisory from
11am-8pm, while areas across inland SE GA to the north/west of
Waycross will peak out with Heat Indices around 105F. The
slightly drier air mass aloft will lessen rainfall chances late
this afternoon and evening, but still expect widely scattered
storms across SE GA with Pops (20-40%), while lingering moisture
across NE FL with still support scattered storms with PoPs
(30-60%) as the East Coast sea breeze pushes inland and will
trigger convection, mainly late in the day from the 5pm-9pm time
frame which should support Heat Advisory headlines due the late
nature of convection. Strong to isolated severe storms with
gusty winds to 40-60 mph still possible in the activity as
movement will be from the NW to SE at 15- 20 mph and some Hi-Res
models are supporting a low chance of an MCS type feature
across Central GA, pushing into SE GA during the evening hours
which could provide the support for a more concentrated wind
threat there due to the lingering extreme heating at the
surface. Any evening convective threat from storms should end by
midnight with the usual fair skies and humid conditions
expected with lows in the 70s inland and near 80F along the
Atlantic Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Below average thunderstorm coverage Tuesday, and above average
  Wednesday.

- Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Watches will  likely be
  needed for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Expected on Wednesday and
  Wednesday Evening.

A cold front will move south toward the area Tuesday, then into SE
GA Tuesday night, where it will stall through Wednesday night.

Some drier air will move into area ahead of the boundary Tuesday,
helping to limit convective potential.

Better moisture will return on Wednesday. The combination of better
moisture, and convergence along surface boundary will yield above
average chances for convection, especially across SE GA. With the
front in the area, convection could extend into the overnight
Wednesday night.

Highs on Tuesday, away from the immediate coast will approach 100,
with heat advisories likely becoming necessary. Temperatures will be
a bit cooler on Wednesday due to convective coverage, but still may
need another heat advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily rounds of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, which
  may become strong to severe.

Frontal boundary will stalled across SE GA through Friday, then
lift  just north of the area on Saturday and Sunday. Due to
ample moisture, and frontal convergence, above average
precipitation chances are forecast throughout this period.

Temperatures will trend above normal through Friday, then near
to a bit below over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 16Z. Showers developing near the terminals this morning
could produce brief periods of MVFR conditions through around
16Z, with ceilings of 1,500 - 2,500 feet possible. Although
showers and thunderstorms should begin to increase in coverage
towards 17Z, confidence in impacts continues to decrease at SSI,
JAX, and CRG, where PROB30 groups were not included for this
TAF cycle. PROB30 groups for briefly gusty surface winds up to
around 25 knots and MVFR conditions during heavier downpours at
VQQ, GNV, and SGJ. Potential convection would favor the time
period before 22Z at SGJ, with the inland moving Atlantic sea
breeze then carrying activity inland towards the VQQ and GNV
terminals after 22Z, with convection potentially lingering
through around 02Z Tuesday. VFR conditions should then prevail
after 04Z, with periods of MVFR visibilities possible overnight
at VQQ. Confidence was too low to indicate prevailing MVFR
conditions at VQQ overnight at this time.

Westerly surface winds sustained around 5 knots will shift to
northwesterly at 5-10 knots by 15Z. The inland moving Atlantic sea
breeze boundary will shift surface winds to east-northeasterly
around 10 knots towards 17Z at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals,
where winds will veer to easterly by 22Z. The Atlantic and Gulf sea
breezes will collide near the U.S. Highway 301 corridor towards 00Z,
with surface winds shifting to southwesterly around 10 knots at GNV
towards 21Z as the Gulf sea breeze boundary crosses the terminal.
Surface winds will become southerly around 5 knots elsewhere later
this evening as convection diminishes.

&&

.MARINE...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary just north of the local
waters will dissipate early this week. Another front will
approach from the north during the middle of the week with
offshore southwest winds increasing to near advisory levels from
Wednesday through Friday. This will bring a return to a stormy
weather pattern to the local waters late in the week and into
next weekend.

Rip Currents: A low end moderate risk of rip currents is
expected today and Tuesday at Northeast FL and Southeast GA
beaches due to an afternoon sea breeze and surf/breakers of 1-2
feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Heat Indices in the advisory range for much of the area Today.

- Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Watches will  likely be
  needed for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Patchy high daytime dispersions this week.

A frontal boundary will be located just to the north of the area
early this week, then lay across southeast Georgia mid week. The
boundary is expected to lift back to the north next weekend.
The first half of this week will have temperatures running above
normal. Daily chances for thunderstorms will increase through
the week.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected
during the next several mornings. Heat Advisories or Excessive
Heat Watches may be needed Tuesday through Wednesday afternoons.
Daily thunderstorm chances this week, with greatest chances
beginning mid week, with strong to severe storms possible.
Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in and near storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily record high temperatures at our designated climate sites
for early this week:

Tuesday, July 28:

KJAX: 104/1872
KGNV: 100/2025
KAMG: 100/2006
KCRG: 100/2025

Wednesday, July 29:

KJAX: 101/2025
KGNV: 100/2025
KAMG: 99/2025
KCRG: 101/2016

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  98  74  99  78 /  20  20   0   0
SSI  94  78  98  82 /  20  20   0   0
JAX  97  77  99  80 /  20  30  20   0
SGJ  93  76  97  79 /  30  20  30   0
GNV  96  76  96  79 /  40  30  40   0
OCF  95  76  95  79 /  60  30  50   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
     136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
     422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ136-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$