517
FXUS62 KJAX 312321
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
721 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue this Weekend. Moderate
  Tidal Flooding Continues Along the St Johns River in Putnam.
  Minor Tidal Flooding Continues Elsewhere Along the St Johns
  River and ICWW. High Rip Current Risk and High Surf at all
  beaches through Sunday. Small Craft Advisories Continue
  through Sunday. Breezy Gusts at the Beaches Sunday (around
  30-35 mph)

- Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flood Potential for NE FL Coast.
Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night. Rainfall
amounts 1-3 localized amounts up to 4 inches for Northeast FL

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Main Highlights:

- Minor to Moderate tidal flooding continues along the St Johns
River basin, NE FL Atlantic Coast, and ICW

- Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue

Scattered showers will spread onshore today, first along the coast
of SE GA early this afternoon ahead of a slowly sinking cold front.
As the front sinks to the FL/GA state line, the showers, driven by
coastal convergence, increasing moisture levels, and lift from the
front will shift southward to the Jacksonville vicinity and the
I- 10 corridor by the mid to late afternoon hours with a few
brief showers even drifting into the NE FL coast southward to
Flagler Beach and Palm Coast areas. Overall rainfall amounts
will be under a tenth of an inch, a bit higher at the immediate
SE GA coast. High pressure will wedge down the southeast coast
north of the front with NE winds increasing to 15-20 mph and
gusting to around 30 mph along the coast and 10-15 mph gusting
to 25 mph inland.

With plentiful cloud cover, highs will be in the upper 70s along the
coast and low 80s over the interior of NE FL west of the St Johns
river and inland Flagler and St Johns counties to near 80 over
inland SE GA.

All Hallows Eve, the sun will set (perhaps never to rise again) and
winds will quell inland to a gentile 5-10 mph while staying higher
along the coast 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Scattered showers along
I-10 will spread into the remainder of NE FL after the midnight hour
and along with gloomy cloud cover will make for dreadfully damp
conditions overnight. Low temperatures will be cooler over the
interior of SE GA into the mid 60s with more humidity and northeast
flow providing for upper 60s along I-10 of NE FL and the lows along
the NE FL coast. No frightful fog is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Slight Risk of Flooding NE FL Coast due to Excessive Rainfall Sun-
Mon

Breezy ENE winds continue across the area as strong high pressure
over the mid-Atlantic wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Rain
chances increase Sunday into Monday as a diffused stationary front
remains draped across central FL and an upper shortwave trough
gradually closes off the SW FL coast. Abundant moisture (PWATs 1.7-
2.0"), strong ascent and frictional convergence will lead to rounds
of showers capable of producing heavy rainfall moving through NE FL
and SE GA, mainly late Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly for NE FL south of
the I-10 corridor where the best lift will be. WPC has placed the I-
95 corridor of NE FL in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for
both Sunday and Monday where convergent bands could develop and
train over coastal areas. Rainfall amounts have trended downward
with this cycle but a few places could see 2-3 inches. Wet and
overcast conditions will keep temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s
during the days with mild conditions in the 60s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm potential returns next week.

- Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone
conditions.

Upper low over south FL on Tuesday weakens and gets absorbed by an
approaching longwave trough digging into the SE US mid-week next
week. Meanwhile, the stationary boundary over south FL lifts
northward as a warm front on Wednesday then a cold front moves
through the SE US Thursday into Friday. Scattered showers with
embedded thunderstorms are anticipated each day across the region
with ample moisture and lift. Onshore flow will shift to SSW toward
the end of the week with the passing cold front bringing a relief to
local coastal hazards especially in the St. Johns river.
Temperatures will trend slightly warmer with highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Low stratus and vicinity showers will continue to impact SSI and the
three Duval sites this evening. Gusts will begin to settle over the
next hour or so, with winds of 5-10 knots overnight.

Sunday, showers will gradually increase in coverage across the area
with easterly winds becoming breezy 10-15 knots and gusts to around
20 knots by mid-morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong high pressure ridging will wedge down the southeastern
seaboard this weekend and early next week, bringing hazardous
boating conditions. A wavy stationary frontal boundary lifting
slowly northward across the Florida peninsula late this weekend will
return more numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms on
Sunday and Monday across our local waters. High pressure will then
build more northeast of the region towards mid week before another
cold front approaches from the northwest.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High rip current risk continues at all
area beaches through this weekend as another surge of onshore flow
arrives today. This will also return surf heights of up to 5 to 7
feet by this evening, and hence a High Surf Advisory will begin once
again this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     HIGH NIGHTTIME DISPERSIONS FOR THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT..

A weakening cold front sinking southward will lead to breezy east-
northeasterly winds through the weekend, especially at the coast
with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Waves of showers will move through
the area today and increase in coverage Sunday into Monday. Isolated
afternoon thunderstorms possible Sunday, primarily for areas south
of I-10 corridor. Despite breezy surface and transport winds,
overcast skies will keep mixing heights low and maintain fair to
good daytime dispersions. However, lingering breezy winds along the
coast will lead to high nighttime dispersions tonight and Sunday
night. Winds will begin to shift easterly next week then southerly
by midweek as speeds diminish.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation
is not expected through Monday. Locally heavy rain is possible
across NE FL Sunday afternoon through Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Relatively lower astronomical tides will allow for minor coastal
flooding limited primarily within the St Johns river through the
remainder of the weekend. The exception is eastern Putnam county
where a Coastal Flood Warning continues at this time for areas along
the St Johns River where localized peaks into moderate flood stage
are still anticipated the next couple of high tide cycles. ENE winds
increase again today, maintaining reverse flow/trapped tides in the
St Johns river.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  76  63  79 /  10  20  20  20
SSI  65  76  65  75 /  40  30  50  60
JAX  67  78  66  77 /  30  60  60  60
SGJ  71  78  68  76 /  10  40  60  70
GNV  69  80  66  81 /  20  30  50  50
OCF  70  80  67  81 /  20  30  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for FLZ038-125-
     132-225-325-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for FLZ137.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ138-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$