405
FXUS62 KJAX 170540
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
140 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast remains on track. Merging boundaries just west of the
I-95 corridor in SE GA has produced a line of strong/severe
thunderstorms this evening. These storms could produce winds 50-60
mph, excessive lightning and heavy downpours. These storms will
shift eastward and offshore into the Atlantic by 8/9 PM. Once
these storms shift offshore, storms will likely end for the night.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Tonight: Scattered to numerous storm activity should continue to
increase in coverage and intensity as it reaches the East Coast
sea breeze parked along the I-95 corridor during the late
afternoon/early evening hours before shifting offshore after
sunset. Still expecting a few strong storms with gusty winds to 50
mph, frequent lightning strikes and heavy rainfall during this
merger and an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out. Fair
skies are expected during the overnight hours as low temps fall
into the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast.
Some patchy fog is possible just before sunrise over inland areas,
but significant dense fog is not expected.

Tuesday...Ridge axis from the Western Atlantic remains in place
across the Central FL Peninsula which will continue a similar
South to Southwest flow pattern, although a few models do suggest
a very slight northward shift in this axis, along with a slightly
drier airmass trying to filter northward up the FL Peninsula with
this potential shift of the ridge axis. For now still expect at
least scattered early afternoon storms will develop over inland
areas in the SW flow and drift towards the E-NE and will interact
with the East Coast sea breeze that may push a bit further inland
to the US 17 Corridor and/or the St. Johns River Basin, which
could lead to lesser storm chances for the Atlantic beaches as the
S-SW flow pattern may not be strong enough to push them all the
way back towards the Atlantic Coast by the late afternoon/evening
hours. Otherwise, still expect Max temps into the lower to middle
90s inland and around 90F along the Atlantic Coast, with peak heat
indices pushing closer to 105F during the afternoon hours. Temps
will generally be on the higher side of guidance on Tuesday if
storm coverage ends up lower than expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

High pressure ridging extending in from out of the east over the
forecast area will act to bring in drier air and more stable
conditions over the forecast area into Thursday with the pressure
axis gradually drifting northward towards the frontal boundary
pressing in from out of the northwest. Initially southerly flow
will transition by Thursday with the rising ridge with mainly
scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms expected before the
end of the week. High temperatures for the period will
consistently rise into the mid 90s for inland areas and in the
lower 90s for areas along the coastline. Overnight low
temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Troughing ahead of the approaching frontal boundary will move into
Georgia by the end of the week and into the weekend, stalling over
Georgia as high pressure ridging over the region becomes less
organized. Chances for showers and storms are anticipated to be
highest on Friday with convection becoming less likely over the
course of the weekend as high pressure conditions and drier air
builds in over the forecast area. Temperatures through the end of
the week and into the weekend will remain consistently above the
seasonal average with highs in the 90s and heat index values
exceeding 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR expected through the morning with possible MVFR vsby occurring
at VQQ soon. Light southwest winds near 5-10 kt expected by mid
morning with transition to the southeast in the aftn for the
coastal TAFs with the Atlantic sea breeze. Generally scattered
convection this afternoon and early evening so have PROB30 groups
for storms with details and refinement expected later as confidence
increases on t-storm affects at the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Little change expected as the Atlantic high pressure ridge will
continue to extend its axis westward across the Florida peninsula
this week, keeping a prevailing south to southwest wind flow
across our area. Showers and thunderstorms will impact our local
waters during the afternoon and evening hours, with isolated
strong storms possible, bringing briefly gusty winds, frequent
lightning strikes, and torrential downpours. Rain chances will
decrease for the local waters Tuesday through Thursday. A weak
front enters the southeast states late this week, resulting in
increasing chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms by
Friday and Saturday.

Rip Currents: Borderline Moderate Risk of Rips will continue this
week with surf/breakers generally in the 1-2 ft range, then
briefly up to 2-3 ft during the daily sea breeze development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  72  93  73 /  20   0  30  10
SSI  89  76  90  77 /  30  20  20  10
JAX  95  74  94  74 /  40  20  40  10
SGJ  92  75  92  75 /  20  10  30  10
GNV  94  73  96  73 /  40  20  40  10
OCF  95  73  95  73 /  40  30  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$