Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
501 FXUS62 KJAX 081837 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 237 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at All Area Beaches. - Isolated Thunderstorms Across Inland Southeast GA and Western Portions of the Suwannee Valley this Afternoon. - Isolated Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday Across North Central FL. - Scattered to Numerous Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms from Thursday through Sunday. - Afternoon Heat Index Values Rise to the 100-105 Range from Friday through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Widely Isolated Afternoon and Evening Showers and Thunderstorms, Mainly Across Inland Southeast GA and western Suwannee Valley. - Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at the Northeast FL Beaches.. Today, weak high pressure pattern will remain across the area from Bermuda with moisture increasing from the west as the base of a shortwave trough moves into the TN Valley and pushes mid level ridging southward over the eastern Gulf waters and FL peninsula. Remnant shortwave energy downstream of the trough over central AL/GA will help supply mid and high level cloud southeastward over our area this afternoon, limiting highs into the mid/upper 80s over SE GA, around 90 along I-10, low 90s over north central FL and near/west I-75, and mid to upper 80s along the coast to I-95. Dewpoints mixing down into the mid 60s away from the coast will limit Max heat index values to the 90-95F range today. Light east to northeast winds 4-8 mph over inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley will turn easterly 5-10 mph this afternoon as the Atlantic seabreeze moves well inland and 8-12 mph gusting to 15 mph along the coast. Widely isolated T`storms will develop over the western Suwannee Valley where the Atlantic seabreeze merges with the Gulf seabreeze near the Suwannee river and with the Gulf breeze and outflows working northward and generating widely isolated convection north along US-441/221 into late afternoon hours. Storms will end just after sunset with the loss of heating. Tonight, clouds and light onshore flow will keep lows mild near the coast into the low to mid 70s, but cool to the upper 60s west of I- 95 and the St Johns river with low 70s near US-441 in SE GA and west of I-75 in NE FL. Patchy fog will develop west of the St Johns river and just west of I-95 in SE GA where low level moisture and calm winds will coincide under partial clearing. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Isolated to Widely Scattered Mainly Afternoon and Evening Showers and Thunderstorms, Mainly Across Inland Southeast GA - Increase in moisture and convective coverage by Wednesday across inland northeast Florida and north central Florida south of SR16. - Moderate rip current risk continues at northeast Florida beaches. On Tuesday, surface ridging over the Mid Atlantic extends across SE Georgia and Northeast Florida in the morning, with ridge pushing further off into the Atlantic during the afternoon. As a result, the prevailing surface flow becomes easterly to southeasterly. The lingering dry air mass and subsidence associated with the ridge will support another largely rain-free day, although a brief isolated shower cannot be completely ruled out during the afternoon, particularly across inland southeast Georgia near the Altamaha River Basin. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s at the coast to around 90 degrees inland and north central FL. Overnight lows will again settle into the upper 60s and lower 70s inland and the mid 70s along the coast. By Wednesday, the ridge axis shifts further eastward, allowing low- level moisture to gradually increase across the area. This will support isolated to widely scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms particularly south of Interstate 10, with the greatest coverage expected further south across inland northeast Florida and north central Florida south of SR16 where sea breeze interactions will be most favorable. High temperatures will continue a warming trend, reaching the upper 80s at the beaches to lower 90s inland, with a few inland locations approaching the middle 90s. Any convection will diminish after sunset, leaving partly cloudy skies and overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s. A moderate risk of rip currents will persist at northeast Florida beaches through the period due to ongoing onshore flow and lingering ocean swell. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late this week with more pronounced increase of showers and storms this weekend. - Summertime humidity returns, with heat index values climbing into the 100 to 105 degree range and locally higher inland. The extended period will feature a transition toward a more typical early-summer pattern across southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. Mid and upper level ridging will remain established across the eastern United States while surface high pressure off the Atlantic coast gradually shifts eastward. As a result, low-level moisture will steadily increase across the region, with a surface ridge axis becoming established over the Florida Peninsula. Rain chances will gradually increase as the deeper moisture returns. Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected Thursday, with coverage increasing to scattered on Friday and becoming scattered to numerous during the weekend with moist southwesterly flow. Convection will remain primarily diurnally driven, with sea breeze boundaries serving as the main focus for thunderstorm development each afternoon and evening. Temperatures will continue to run near to slightly above seasonal normals. Daily highs will generally reach the lower to middle 90s across most locations, with some inland areas potentially reaching the upper 90s by the weekend. As humidity levels rise, heat index values will increasingly become a concern, reaching the 100 to 105 degree range on a widespread basis by Friday through Sunday. Some locations over Clay and St. Johns counties can have heat index values between 105 and 110 degrees during the hottest part of Saturday afternoon if cloud cover and convective development remain delayed. Overall, the forecast trend favors a return to a classic summertime regime featuring increasing humidity, daily afternoon thunderstorms, and elevated heat stress concerns heading into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and much of tonight as mid to high level clouds will continue to glide southeastward across Southeast Georgia into Northeast FL with few low level cumulus clouds near 4.0 kft and widely isolated T`storms well west of the inland TAF sites. Easterly winds around 10 knots at the coast will diminish slightly to 6-10 knots inland. Winds will lighten overnight to calm away from the coast and turn southerly before trending calm before sunrise. Patchy fog late tonight inland at VQQ to near GNV will develop 04-08Z, but lift after 12Z. Mid to high level clouds will persist overnight into Tuesday with a few coastal showers moving onshore near SGJ Tuesday late morning with light easterly winds around 5 knots. && .MARINE... Atlantic high pressure stretching westward across the local waters will weaken as a backdoor cold front shifts southward along the Mid Atlantic and Carolina coast through this evening with dry conditions under mostly cloudy skies. High pressure will build to the north early Tuesday and shift into the Atlantic waters to the northeast Tuesday afternoon, the more to the east on Wednesday with isolated showers and thunderstorms and east to southeasterly winds. The high will extend from near Bermuda into the Northeast FL waters Thursday and then weaken and shift southward Friday into Saturday with southwest winds turning briefly southerly each afternoon due to the seabreeze circulation as a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds developing during the mid to late afternoon hours will combine with a persistent easterly ocean swell of 9-10 seconds to maintain a moderate rip current risk, especially during the outgoing tide, which will occur during the late afternoon and early evening hours through midweek. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will rebuild northeast of the region on Tuesday, maintaining a generally easterly flow and allowing a drier Atlantic air mass to overspread much of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. Widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday and Thursday, mainly across inland areas where sea breeze interactions provide the greatest focus for convection. Southwest flow strengthens by Friday ahead of a slow moving frontal boundary tracking southward into the Mid South, leading to increasing moisture and instability across the region. Thunderstorm coverage will become more widespread late in the week, with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend. The prevailing southwest flow will tend to keep the Atlantic Sea breeze pinned near the Interstate 95 and U.S. Highway 17 corridors, focusing the greatest inland thunderstorm coverage west of these locations during the afternoon and evening hours. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog development is not expected through midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 88 69 91 / 10 0 0 20 SSI 74 86 77 87 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 70 88 73 92 / 0 10 10 10 SGJ 74 86 75 88 / 0 20 10 10 GNV 70 90 71 93 / 0 20 0 30 OCF 70 90 73 92 / 0 20 10 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$