984
FXUS62 KJAX 041129
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
729 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents Remains in Effect through Friday. Rip
Currents Risk Remains Moderate to High This Weekend

- Small Craft Advisory Offshore waters today

- Drier This Week, Increased TStorm Chances Next Week

- Warming Trend Through The Weekend

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy Onshore Winds Continue Today
- High Risk for Rip Currents At Area Beaches

Dry and breezy conditions continue today, though with some
moderation as the pressure gradient relaxes just a bit with low
level high pressure shifting towards the Carolinas/eastern GA by
Friday Morning. Overall expecting a pleasant day featuring more
sunshine than cloud cover, as highs bump up just a bit into the low
to mid 80s as onshore flow lightens. Still expecting a general 15-
20G25-30mph flow across much of northeast FL and the coasts and a
general 10-15G20-25mph elsewhere this afternoon and evening. Primary
concerns/hazards will be high rip current risk at all area beaches,
as well as rough surf in the 4-6 foot range. Winds drop off further
tonight as the aforementioned high moves closer to the region, with
low temps overall a few degrees warmer than Thursday Morning, in the
mid 50s to low 60s inland and mid 60s to low 70s closer to the coast
and St. Johns River Basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Rough Surf and a High Risk of Rip Currents Friday, with high risk
  possible Saturday.
- Mostly dry conditions

High pressure pressure ridge will be located just north of the area
Friday producing prevailing easterly flow and slowly modifying air.
Should see mostly sunny conditions, with only few cumulus and high
clouds, with breezy easterly winds near 15G20-25 mph coastal, less
inland areas, by the late morning or afternoon. Noted model
soundings show PWAT Of less than 1 inch and east flow up to about 8
kft. The high pressure center will move off the east coast Friday
night with mostly clear skies and possibly some patchy fog formation
well inland, but should not be a big concern owing to the overall
dry airmass.

Little overall change into Saturday though the high pressure ridging
will be weaker as the center the deep layer high moves over the
local coastal waters. PWATs remain below an inch per NAM Bufr
soundings. The sfc ridge will still extend across eastern GA and SC
resulting in low level easterly flow. With the afternoon sea breeze
will like winds up again to about 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph for
the east coast areas.

A warming trend will continue Friday and into Saturday with daily
high temps rising from upper 80s inland Friday and lower 90s on
Saturday. Coastal max temps still stay about mid 80s both days.
Overnight low temperatures again be fairly cool Friday night in the
lower to mid 60s inland and about lower 70s coast. These temps will
be a few degrees warmer by Saturday night. We can`t rule out very
patchy fog both nights due to the calming winds inland areas.

The main story will be the rough surf and life-threatening rip
currents at all beaches, though the surf heights will be on a
lowering trend overall.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- At Least Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Sunday and Monday.

- Dry Weather Likely to Continue Sunday, with increasing chance
  of rain Monday through Wednesday.

Surface high pressure system will move out of the area Sunday
through Monday as models show a trailing cold front slipping
southward along the east coast on Monday, as as backdoor cold front.
Moisture will also increase from the west and north during the day
on Monday. The front further moves south Monday into Tuesday and
into our area. The front and the combination of moisture will lead
to enhanced rain chances Monday and Tuesday, highest for Tuesday
near 30-50 percent. Breezy northeast winds may begin on Tuesday
and continue through Wednesday. The front looks to slip just south
of the forecast area on Wednesday with a chance of showers and
possible a thunderstorm. Some chance for locally heavy rainfall Tue-
Wed with weak signal shown from NBM 70th and 90th percentile
guidance.

Temperatures will continue to be warm on Sunday and Monday, with max
temps rising into the lower 90s inland and upper 80s coast. With the
front`s influence on Tuesday and Wednesday, highs will be nudged
downward a few degrees. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s
generally, with some mid 70s possible at the coast after the frontal
passage due to onshore flow.

Marine influences will continue to produce elevated rip current risk
Sunday and Monday. Onshore flow may enhance risk further Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to continue through the forecast period.
Light NNW winds this morning quickly increase and shift to NE after
14Z. Sustained winds will be in the 10-15 kt range with gusts around
20 kts. Highest winds will be at JAX, CRG and SGJ. Winds subside
rather significantly late this evening and tonight.

&&

.MARINE...


Elevated northeasterly flow will trend downward through Tonight,
with Small Craft Advisory conditions confined to offshore waters
today before dropping below these thresholds by Tonight. High
pressure then shifts off the southeastern seaboard Friday into the
weekend. Lighter onshore flow then persists Friday into the weekend.

Rip Currents: High Risk will continue across area beaches today
as onshore flow persists, in addition to surf heights in the 4-5
foot range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Areas To Widespread High Daytime Dispersions Through Friday

- Low Min Rh Inland Southeast Ga This Afternoon

Elevated transport winds from the east today will support areas of
very high daytime dispersion values, especially across inland
locations. On Friday, slightly lower easterly transport winds are
forecast but they still support areas of high dispersion.

A drier pattern today will result in areas of low min relative
humidity over inland southeast GA where values to fall into the
upper 20s to lower 30s this afternoon.

Despite the drier air mass, recent rainfall and gradually moderating
humidity levels should limit significant fire weather concerns.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS:  Widespread fog development is not
anticipated over the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  57  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  83  71  84  73 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  85  63  86  67 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  84  70  85  72 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  87  61  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  86  63  89  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Friday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Friday night for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ470-
     472.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ474.

&&

$$