022
FXUS62 KJAX 150545
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
145 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Outflows continue to drift back toward the Atlantic coast this
evening, triggering new convection along the I-95 corridor. Most
of the activity will be on a downward trend by 11 PM and continue
to dissipate through around midnight. The main focus areas will be
the southern zones and portions of SE GA generally from Waycross
east to the coast. A few strong storms may develop with pockets of
higher instability lingering along the coast. After midnight
convective debris cloud cover will push in from the Gulf leading
to partly clear skies overnight with temps dipping into the
mid/upper 70s once again tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Surface high pressure will be east of the region through Tonight.
The upper high pressure ridge will be centered just to the
southeast. The resultant flow will be from the south southwest.

Convection will continue to develop across the area with diurnal
heating this afternoon, with a east northeast movement. Expecting
eastern counties to have the highest chance for convection, where
activity will interact with sea breeze. As a result, eastern
counties will have the greatest chance for strong storms with
gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Convection will diminish this evening with loss of diurnal heating.
A mainly dry overnight is expected. Lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Deep-layered ridging positioned over the FL peninsula will begin
to nudge northward on Sunday as a de-amplifying trough progresses
eastward across the southern Appalachians. This weather pattern
will keep southwesterly flow in place across our area, with PWATs
remaining around 2 inches fostering the development of scattered
to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon, with activity
initially developing along the inland moving Gulf coast sea breeze
in the Suwannee Valley and inland north central FL around or just
before noon, with convection then developing along a pinned
Atlantic sea breeze located just east of I-95 during the early to
mid-afternoon hours. Mesoscale boundary collisions during the
late afternoon hours may result in a few storms pulsing and
becoming strong, mainly for locations east of U.S.-301 in
northeast and north central FL, with isolated stronger storms
potentially producing downburst winds of 40-50 mph, frequent
lightning strikes, and torrential downpours. Early afternoon highs
will generally reach the lower 90s inland and the upper 80s to
around 90 at coastal locations, with maximum heat index values
generally topping out in the 97-103 range. Deeper southwesterly
flow should push convection offshore before midnight, with debris
clouds thinning out overnight. Lows will only fall to the low and
mid 70s inland, ranging to the mid and upper 70s at coastal
locations.

Ridging aloft will nudge its axis over north central FL on Monday,
allowing low level flow to back to a more southerly direction
with decreasing speeds for areas south of I-10, while southwesterly
flow prevails for locations north of I-10. A drier air mass
associated with a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) over south FL will attempt
to expand northward into central FL, but PWATS should still remain
near mid-June climatology across most of our area. A looser pressure
gradient will allow for both the Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes
to push further inland, with colliding mesoscale boundaries along
the U.S.-301 corridor again possibly resulting in pulsing storms.
Gradually strengthening subsidence may limit coverage to scattered
for much of inland southeast GA, but numerous showers and storms
are expected elsewhere inland during the afternoon hours, with
activity possibly lingering well into the evening for inland
northeast and north central FL. Temperatures will likely increase a
few degrees at inland locations as subsidence strengthens, with
low to mid 90s and maximum heat index values reaching the 100-105
range. Coastal highs should approach 90 before the sea breeze moves
inland. Lows on Monday night will again generally fall to the low and
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The axis of deep-layered ridging will continue to lift northward
across our region on Tuesday and Wednesday. Low level southerly flow
should advect a drier air mass that will be in place across the FL
peninsula northward into our region, with strengthening subsidence
and PWATS falling slightly below climatology resulting in only widely
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly for locations
west of the U.S. Highway 301 corridor. Slightly higher coverage may be
possible for locations west of I-75 in the Suwannee Valley towards
sunset on both Tuesday and Wednesday, where the Atlantic sea breeze
will collide with a slower moving Gulf coast sea breeze. Less
convective coverage should allow highs to soar to the mid 90s inland
and the lower 90s at area beaches, with maximum heat index values
climbing to around 105 during the afternoon hours. Lows will remain
in the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to around 80 at coastal
locations, where a light southerly breeze will continue overnight.

Convective coverage will likely increase late this week and into the
weekend as troughing progresses across the eastern U.S. Ridging aloft
will begin to sink southward in advance of this approaching trough on
Thursday, but the drier air mass associated with the aforementioned
SAL over the FL peninsula lingering on Thursday, which could limit
afternoon and evening convective coverage. Widely scattered storms
developing along a more dominant Gulf coast sea breeze should encounter
a pinned Atlantic sea breeze boundary along the I-95 corridor late
in the day, possibly resulting in a few strong storms for coastal
locations towards sunset. Scattered activity could linger into the
evening hours on Thursday across southeast GA as temperatures aloft
cool with the approach of the upstream trough.  Seasonably hot and
humid weather will continue downstream of this trough for our area,
with highs again reaching the low to mid 90s, with heat index values
soaring to around 105. Southwesterly flow will continue these hot
and humid conditions through Friday and Saturday. Gradually cooling
temperatures aloft may result in an increasing threat for strong to
isolated severe storms on Friday and Saturday afternoons, especially
along the I-95 corridor, where mesoscale boundaries will likely
collide during the afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

VFR conditions in place with mid and high level clouds exiting to
the northeast with more persistent high clouds near GNV southward.
Lone exception of shallow ground fog at VQQ will present MVFR level
restrictions 08-12Z.

Similar to yesterday, largely southwesterly prevailing light winds
and flow aloft will bring in showers by 15-16Z with heavier T`storms
by 18-19Z developing as the gulf seabreeze and outflows collide
with the Atlantic seabreeze pinned near the east coast and have
PROB30 groups for MVFR visibility and ceiling restrictions 19-24Z.
Scattered to broken cumulus cloud ceilings of 3.5 to 4.0 kft
today under mid level clouds will lower at times in showers and
T`storms to 2.5 kft. Light south to southwesterly winds 5-10 knots
will prevail with mid level ridge just southeast of the area and
surface Bermuda ridge axis over central FL.

T`storms will diminish to showers after 00Z with drying conditions
by 03Z with lingering mid and high level clouds through the end
of the period tonight with light southerly winds.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

High pressure will generally be centered to the east through the
upcoming week, with this ridge extending across coastal waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate through Sunday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Southwesterly transport winds will weaken slightly on Sunday,
yielding fair daytime dispersion values across the Suwannee Valley
and inland southeast GA, with poor values possible for locations
south of the I-10 corridor. Southwesterly transport winds will
continue on Monday, with breezy conditions during the afternoon
hours creating good daytime dispersion values for inland locations
along and north of the I-10 corridor, with fair values forecast
elsewhere. Numerous afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms are forecast on Sunday and Monday, with only widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected by Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  73  92  73 /  50  30  50  20
SSI  89  76  90  76 /  60  30  50  20
JAX  92  74  94  74 /  80  40  60  20
SGJ  91  74  92  74 /  60  30  60  20
GNV  93  73  94  73 /  60  20  60  20
OCF  92  73  93  73 /  60  20  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$