143
FXUS62 KJAX 021850 CCA
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion...cor
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
150 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue. Minor Tidal Flooding for St.
Johns River Basin through at least Tuesday Night. High Rip Current
Risk and High Surf (Northeast FL beaches) through Tuesday. Small
Craft Advisories for Our Local Atlantic Waters through Tuesday night

- Locally Heavy Downpours Possible for Coastal Northeast FL Rest
  of Today

- Isolated TStorm Potential through Thursday Night

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights:

- Periods of Heavy rainfall and localized Minor Flooding possible
for northeast FL through late this evening

- Minor tidal flooding within the St Johns River basin continues

- Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue

Though mid to upper level forcing is weakening a bit, fairly strong
pressure gradient exists which is continuing breezy easterly low
level flow. East to northeast surface winds will be up to 15-20 mph
with a few gusts of around 30 mph today. Max temps will be held to
the 70s most areas, but further inland some areas will reach 80
or lower 80s for a brief time. Plenty of low to mid level moisture
and low level convergence to produce scattered to numerous showers
across the southern 2/3rds of the area this afternoon and evening.
There is some chance of locally heavy rainfall especially for
the coastal northeast FL area and maybe as far inland as Highway
301 corridor in northeast FL. Otherwise, limited instability
(MLCAPE at or below 700 J/kg) will keep the t-storm chances fairly
low at 20 percent or less through mid evening, but the overall
rain/shower chances are elevated at about 40-70 percent, highest
for east coast of northeast FL, and much lower chance for inland
southeast GA at about 15-25 percent. Moving into the tonight period,
still elevated rain chances persist for the coastal areas and
inland northeast FL, and we are advertising 40-60 percent there
and down to 10-20 percent from parts of the Suwannee Valley to
Jesup GA to locations northwestward. Heaviest rainfall amounts
rest of today through tonight will be over northeast FL, with
deterministic amounts of 0.25 to 0.8 inches or so, highest east
coast areas. Probabilities of 1-2 inches are fairly low estimated to
be 15-25 percent across St Johns, Flagler and Putnam counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- High Risk for Rip Currents Continues at Area Beaches through Midweek.

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible at Inland Locations, Mostly on
Wednesday Afternoon and Evening.

- Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Late Wednesday Night.

Troughing will shift eastward from our area on Tuesday, allowing
narrow ridging to build along the southeastern seaboard. Meanwhile,
a deep trough progressing across the Plains states and the Upper
Midwest will reach the Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by
Wednesday night as ridging pushes offshore of the southeastern
seaboard. Otherwise, strong high pressure situated along the Mid-
Atlantic coast tonight will slowly shift offshore on Tuesday,
maintaining breezy easterly winds across our area, with winds then
shifting to east-southeasterly on Tuesday evening, southeasterly on
Wednesday and then southerly towards sunrise on Thursday.

Breezy easterly winds may drive isolated showers onshore along the I-
95 corridor on Tuesday morning, with activity then migrating inland
and increasing in coverage slightly across northeast and especially
north central FL on Tuesday afternoon. An isolated embedded
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across north central FL on Tuesday
afternoon. Breezy onshore winds will keep highs in the mid to upper
70s for locations east of I-95, while rising heights aloft will
boost highs to the low and mid 80s for locations west of I-95. Any
shower or thunderstorm activity that develops south of I-10 on
Tuesday afternoon should dissipate by sunset, with fair skies on
Tuesday evening potentially yielding to an increasing cirrus shield
from west to east during the predawn and early morning hours on
Wednesday. Mild and unseasonably humid conditions should foster low
stratus cloud cover to develop at inland locations, with patchy fog
possible for locations north of I-10 towards sunrise. Lows will only
fall to the mid and upper 60s inland and the lower 70s at coastal
locations, where an onshore breeze will continue overnight.

A lengthy cold front associated with the deep trough progressing
eastward across the Plains states, Upper Midwest, and Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys will enter the southeastern states by Wednesday evening.
Ridging aloft over our area will shift offshore by late afternoon,
allowing low and mid level flow to veer locally, and PWATs will
climb to the 1.5 - 1.75 inch range for locations west of I-95.
Southeasterly low level winds will drive the Atlantic sea breeze
quickly onshore on Wednesday afternoon, with this boundary
potentially colliding with the Gulf sea breeze boundary near I-75 in
the Suwannee Valley and north central FL during the late afternoon
hours. This warm, moist, and increasingly unstable environment
should produce scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms
for areas west of I-95 on Wednesday afternoon and evening, while
coastal locations remain mostly dry through Wednesday night. Onshore
winds should again keep coastal highs in the upper 70s to around 80,
while inland locations solidly climb to the mid 80s. Low level flow
will then weaken on Wednesday night as the frontal boundary slows
its forward progress upon approach to our region. Fog and low
stratus cloud cover should be more widespread during the overnight
hours into early Thursday morning, with dense fog possible, likely
dependent on the thickness of mid and higher altitude cloud cover
associated with the approaching trough and cold front. Lows will
again only fall to the 65-70 range inland and the lower 70s at
coastal locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Warm and Unseasonably Humid Weather Continues through at Least
Thursday Night.

- Isolated Afternoon Thunderstorms Possible on Thursday and Friday.

- Slightly Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected this Weekend.

- Strong Cold Front Possibly Approaches Our Area on Sunday Night.

Troughing aloft progressing into the southeastern states towards
midweek will get deflected northeastward by a ridge that will
briefly build over the Gulf on Thursday. This weather pattern will
result in a cold front slowing its forward progress and weakening as
it moves across our area late this week. However, a southern stream
trough that will move onshore across central and northern California
on Tuesday will progress quickly eastward during the remainder of
this work week, reaching the southeastern states on Friday. This
system will flatten the ridge across the Gulf this weekend, creating
fast zonal flow across our area in advance of a deeper northern
stream trough that is poised to dig quickly southeastward from the
northern Plains this weekend, with this trough likely pushing a
stronger cold front across our area by Sunday night and next Monday.

The initial frontal boundary that will be slowing its forward
progress across the FL panhandle on Wednesday night will limp
through our area on Thursday night and Friday morning, with a warm
and unseasonably humid air mass continuing through Thursday evening
locally ahead of this boundary. Highs soaring to the mid 80s again
on Thursday and PWATs remaining above 1.5 inches should allow for
isolated to widely scattered convection to develop during the
afternoon hours, with southwesterly low level steering flow
potentially allowing for a sea breeze collision near or east of the
U.S. Highway 301 corridor. Activity should largely remain diurnal in
nature, with fog and low stratus cloud cover possibly developing
ahead of the decaying front during the predawn and early morning
hours on Friday, especially across northeast and north central FL
and possibly coastal southeast GA as well. Lows on Thursday night
will likely remain in the 60s area-wide, possibly around 70 for
portions of coastal northeast FL.

Longer term model guidance begins to diverge on Friday as the
decaying front potentially lingers over our area. Model blends keep
only isolated diurnal convection along the I-95 and U.S. Highway 341
corridors at this time, but the latest 12Z operational GFS indicates
a wetter scenario into Friday evening as the aforementioned southern
stream trough quickly reaches the southeastern U.S. Highs will
likely climb to at least the lower 80s again for much of our area,
with a slightly cooler and drier air mass then advecting across our
region beginning late Friday night and through the upcoming weekend,
as highs generally remain in the mid to upper 70s, with lows falling
to the 50s at most inland locations on Friday night and then area-
wide by Saturday night. The approaching strong upper trough and cold
front may advect enough moisture off the Gulf on Sunday night for at
least isolated showers to develop across our area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

A mix of flight conditions over the area with periods of MVFR and
brief IFR cig/vsby for the northeast FL TAFs due to showers and
isolated tstorms, but likely prevailing just above VFR cigs at
around 3500-5000 ft this afternoon and evening. Gradual improvement
in the chance of showers and storms by mid to late evening, but not
completely done with showers coming in off the Atlantic so have VCSH
or a PROB30 group after 02z. The PROB30 group for late evening is
noted for SSI and SGJ, but may also be needed at some point for CRG.
Toward early morning on Tuesday, some potential for lower cigs for
inland TAFs at VQQ and GNV down to IFR. Mainly isolated showers
expected for Tuesday for first half of the day with VCSH denoted in
the TAFs. For sfc winds, east to northeast winds around 10-15 kts
with gusts around 20 kts and continue through around 23z. A coastal
trough in place will back winds NNE overnight with speeds falling to
5-10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong high pressure wedged along the coast will continue elevated
seas and small craft advisory conditions through Tuesday. Though
winds will begin to decrease Tonight, lingering elevated seas will
remain through Tuesday night. High pressure will remain to the north
but with a weaker influence through the second half of the week
resulting in lighter winds and lowering seas. Bouts of showers and
heavy downpours will be possible through the middle of the week,
especially for the rest of today through Tuesday as coastal
troughing develops. A cold front will approach from the west
Wednesday and pass across the local waters Friday.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

Dangerous surf zone conditions continue with a High rip current risk
at all area beaches rest of today and elevated to high surf for the
entire coast. The highest breakers, around 5-7 feet will be from
Ponte Vedra south through late evening. Improving surf zone
conditions are expected late this week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Elevated nighttime dispersion values tonight for coastal
  northeast FL

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across
our region through Thursday night. A few heavier downpours will be
possible through this evening for coastal northeast Florida.
Otherwise, breezy northeasterly surface and transport winds this
afternoon and tonight will shift to easterly on Tuesday morning and
then southeasterly by Wednesday and Wednesday night. Breezy speeds
at coastal locations through late this evening will create elevated
nighttime dispersion values for coastal northeast FL tonight. Fair
to good daytime dispersion values will continue through Wednesday
throughout our region. Surface and transport winds will gradually
diminish on Wednesday night and will shift to southerly by early
Thursday morning. Surface and transport winds will then shift to
southwesterly on Thursday afternoon, with onshore surface winds
developing along the I-95 corridor. Lighter speeds will yield fair
daytime dispersion values at inland locations on Thursday afternoon,
with poor values forecast at coastal locations.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog
formation are possible for inland locations along and north of the
Interstate 10 corridor. Areas to widespread fog will be possible
during the predawn and early morning hours on Thursday across our
area.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Due to the persistent onshore wind, tidal levels within the St
Johns River basin and it`s tributaries have remained steady,
reaching minor flood levels at high tides over the last 24 hours.
Recent peak water levels in this area have been roughly 1.55 to 1.85
feet MHHW. This is likely to continue through Tuesday night before
decreasing Wednesday onward as winds diminish. Water levels are
likely to remain in the 1.5-2.0 feet MHHW (mean higher high water)
range until midweek. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for
the entire middle and lower St Johns River zones. One caveat is that
the additional recent rainfall over central FL may allow elevated
water levels to linger in the St Johns river basin late this week
from Satsuma northward Mayport.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  82  66  84 /  10  10   0  40
SSI  67  78  67  78 /  40  20  10  10
JAX  67  80  67  82 /  40  20  10  20
SGJ  70  79  71  79 /  50  10   0  10
GNV  68  83  68  85 /  40  20  10  50
OCF  69  84  68  85 /  30  40  10  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ038-125-
     132-137-225-325-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for FLZ124-
     125-138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until midnight EST tonight for FLZ138-233-
     333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for GAZ154-
     166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ452-454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

$$