883
FXUS62 KJAX 241235
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
835 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Continue into the Weekend.
  Areas of Low RH (Under 35%) Inland. Extreme to Exceptional
  Drought Continues Nearly Area-Wide

- Dense Smoke Advisory through 12 PM Friday portions of inland
  SE GA. Smoke plumes emanating from larger fires in southeast
  GA will likely impact the Interstate 95 corridor this
  afternoon and evening. Smoke Will Cause Unhealthy Air Quality.
  Monitor Using airnow.gov

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Area Beaches Today.

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon and Evening
  Thunderstorms Possible This Weekend and Again Later Next Week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

- Dense Smoke Expected Near Large Wildfires

- Monitor AirNow.gov for current air quality index levels

- Near Critically Low Humidity Levels for Inland Southeast GA
  this Afternoon.

- Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and
  evening over northeast FL.

- Smoke plumes emanating from larger fires in southeast GA will
  likely impact the Interstate 95 corridor this afternoon and
  evening.

A weak shortwave trough will push through the area today, which
is expected to shift offshore tonight. Flow aloft becomes more
northwesterly by late evening and overnight. Low level ridge
axis is located across the GA/FL border this morning and will
continue to shift gradually further east and southeast. The
fairly sfc light flow will allow both east and west coast sea
breezes to push inland. PWATs are still low from about 0.8
inches in southeast GA to 1.1 inches over northeast FL. Latest
guidance shows a possibility of a few showers mainly across
northeast FL for this afternoon and based on consensus will
include some 15-20 percent shower chances. There is lower
confidence on a thunderstorm with chances of about 10-15 percent
for inland areas late afternoon and early evening. Any t- storm
that forms should be brief as there still is substantial dry
air aloft. Max temps will be a few degrees above normal. Still
quite dry near the sfc with min RH this afternoon in the upper
20s for inland southeast GA and mid 30s for inland northeast FL.
This low RH and the ongoing drought unfortunately support some
of the larger active wildfires across Clinch/Echols, Brantley,
and Putnam counties.

For tonight, an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the
early evening which should dissipate before 11 PM. Mostly clear
to partly cloudy rest of the night. There is potential for
patchy fog and low stratus near the I-75 corridor across
northeast FL as winds become near calm. Smoke from wildfires in
Clinch, Brantley, and Putnam counties may reduce visibilities
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances this period,
  especially for southeast GA.

High pressure weakens and shifts east of the region Saturday as
a cold front approaches from the northwest, moving through the
region Saturday Night and Sunday before stalling just south of
the area by Sunday Night. Though the front will be rather weak
and will be lacking any significant upper level
support/dynamics, there does look to be just enough moisture
combined with a few weak mid level frontal waves to bring at
least some isolated to scattered showers across much of the
region as well as a few isolated t`storms.

Saturday, the two main areas of potential are over inland
southeast GA ahead of the main front as well as some isolated
activity over parts of northeast FL as a sea breeze tries to
move inland, as southwesterly flow ahead of the boundary is not
expected to be very strong. Some activity is expected to linger
overnight Saturday Night as well the front drops southward, with
potential focused more across northeast FL during the day on
Sunday.

With above being said, available moisture will be rather
marginal and combined with the ongoing drought, certainly will
not be a washout across the area, and convection overall is
expected to be more of the isolated to widely scattered variety.
Though given the extreme drought and ongoing wildfire
situation, rainfall of any kind will be welcomed.

Regarding temperatures, albeit weak, southwesterly flow will
help highs rise into the upper 80s to near 90 for most of the
area throughout the weekend, and just a few degrees cooler by
the coast. Lows will be mild, mainly in the low to mid 60s each
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Mostly dry early in the period, thunderstorm potential returns
mid to late week.

Confidence is overall lower than preferred for the long term
period, as there is still some discrepancies amongst major
model guidance. That said, surface and upper high pressure
ridging does look to build far enough south behind the stalled
front to our south to keep most if not all of the region dry on
Monday and into Tuesday, with areas furthest south hanging on to
slight chance PoPs at this time. Ridging breaks down a bit
again Tuesday as another frontal boundary approaches, likely
stalling near or just north of the region mid to late week.
Guidance is quite split as to how strong both surface and
ridging aloft holds over the area, and therefore how far south
the weakening boundary makes it before the flow aloft becomes
more zonal. Depending on how far south the front makes it, this
would maintain chances for showers and t`storms each day, with
southeast GA looking like where the higher end of this potential
would be at this time as shown in the forecast PoPs.
Temperatures trend near normal Monday before rising above climo
later in the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail through at least 15Z at the regional
terminals. A west to northwesterly flow above 3,000 feet
developing late this morning will likely push smoke plumes from
larger wildfires in southeast GA towards SSI by around or just
after 15Z, with prevailing MVFR conditions likely this afternoon
and evening. Periods of IFR conditions due to smoke and haze
will be possible at SSI through around 03Z Saturday. Smoke
plumes are also likely to impact the Duval County terminals and
SGJ towards or just after 00Z, with MVFR conditions possible
through around 06Z, except at VQQ, where smoke and possibly fog
may combine to keep IFR conditions in place through the early
morning hours on Saturday. Otherwise, the Atlantic and Gulf sea
breezes will push inland early this afternoon, with these
boundaries colliding near the U.S. Highway 301 corridor towards
23Z. This boundary collision should result in isolated shower
development near the VQQ and GNV terminals that may persist
through around 02Z. Confidence was only high enough to indicate
vicinity shower development at this time.

South to southwesterly surface winds will develop by 14Z, with
sustained speeds of around 5 knots expected through at least
16Z. Surface winds will shift to east-southeasterly behind the
passage of the Atlantic sea breeze at the SSI and SGJ coastal
terminals after 16Z, with speeds then increasing to 10-15 knots
by 18Z. Surface winds will shift to west-southwesterly behind
the passage of the Gulf coast sea breeze at GNV after 20Z, with
speeds increasing to around 10 knots. The Atlantic sea breeze
will cross the Duval County terminals from east to west after
17Z this afternoon, shifting surface winds to southeasterly
around 10 knots. Mainly southerly surface winds around 5 knots
will prevail at the regional terminals after 02Z, with speeds
then diminishing by 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure over the southeast states will weaken today into
Saturday while moving southeast and well offshore into the
Atlantic. Temporary increases in southeast to south winds
expected along nearshore waters this afternoon and again
Saturday afternoon and evening.

A cold frontal boundary will approach the southeast states by
Saturday evening, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening. This boundary is expected move
into the area waters Sunday into Sunday night, and then into
central Florida Monday. This front will result in widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Sunday
night. Behind the front, increased northeast winds and rougher
seas early Monday. Weak high pressure will build in over the
area waters Monday night into through Tuesday. Another cold
front will approach from the northwest by Wednesday.

Rip Currents:

A low-end moderate risk of rip currents will persist through
Saturday partly due to diurnal increases in southeasterly winds
and surf heights of 2 to 3 feet. May be a slight longshore
current directed north based on latest wave spectra from 41112
and 41117.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Areas Of High Dispersions This Weekend

- Near Critical Minrh Levels for Inland Southeast GA this
  Afternoon.

Dry high pressure will continue to prevail across the area
today.  Similar to the last several days, very good mixing will
result in good dispersions across most of the area despite
rather light low level winds inland. Also similar to the last
several days, a sea breeze will move east to west during the
late afternoon and evening hours, causing a wind shift inland. A
few isolated showers and perhaps a brief thunderstorm will be
possible across inland northeast FL this afternoon and evening
as the sea breeze moves inland. A frontal boundary approaches
the area Saturday and likely to move through and stall just
south of the area by Sunday, bringing chances for showers and
thunderstorms but areas of high dispersions as well. Dry
conditions are likely for many on Monday before another front
approaches around Tuesday/Wednesday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Smoke from area fires may cause
localized visibility restrictions, especially during the
overnight and morning hours. Patchy fog is possible over inland
NE FL Friday night, and therefore localized "superfog"
potential.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures this Weekend at NE FL/SE GA climate
sites:

April 25: JAX 92/1958, CRG 91/2006, GNV 93/1896, AMG 91/1958

April 26: JAX 92/2011, CRG 91/1989, GNV 93/1908, AMG 93/1986

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  60  88  62 /  10   0  30  50
SSI  81  64  83  66 /  10   0  20  30
JAX  86  61  89  63 /  10   0  20  20
SGJ  82  63  86  64 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  87  58  90  61 /  20  10  10  10
OCF  86  60  88  62 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...Dense Smoke Advisory until noon EDT today for GAZ136-152-162-
     163.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$