204
FXUS62 KJAX 161635
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1235 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)...

Breezy southeasterly winds have set up this morning as the local
pressure gradient remains pinched between Atlantic high pressure
and a westward-moving broad low pressure in the northern Gulf.
Winds may continue to gust in the 20-25 mph through the afternoon,
especially at the beaches.

Abundant sunshine today will offer a hotter day through the rest of
the afternoon as temperatures rise into the lower 90s inland and
upper 80s at the coast. Combining with humidity, heat index - "feels
like" - temperatures will max out in the 100-107 degree range.

According to the latest RAOB, mid-level temperatures and lapse rates
remain on the warm and weak side, respectively. Though some slight
cooling is expected aloft today, this will be an inhibiting factor
for severe storm development today. That said, isolated strong
storms may materialize along outflow boundary collisions later this
afternoon and during the early evening along the I-75 corridor in NE
FL where deeper moisture will exist. The primary concern this
afternoon will localized flooding as numerous storms push northward
along I-75. A "Marginal" risk for flooding does exist from Live Oak
to Ocala and points to the west through this evening. Locations that
received considerable rain yesterday will be at a slightly higher
risk of flooding. However, due to the pace of convection the
potential for flash flooding will be low.

Tonight, diurnal convection will fade off by 10 pm with only a
scattered debris cloud hanging around through the night. Steering
flow remains southerly but will gradually weaken overnight but
should be enough to keep fog development at bay, even in areas where
downpours do occur this afternoon. Under mostly clear skies,
temperatures will cool toward mid/upper 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday night)...

Initially moist southeasterly-southerly flow will shift to become
more westerly by the end of the week as high pressure ridging
extends in over the region from out of the east. Daily bouts of
diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop through the period.
High temperatures for the end of the week are expected to range
between the lower to upper 90s for inland areas and in the upper
80s and lower 90s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures
will drop down into the mid to upper 70s. Heat index values will
likely rise to be near Heat Advisory conditions by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through next Wednesday)...

High pressure will move from east to west during this period,
resulting in a gradual shift in the prevailing flow to become more
out of the northwest by Monday. Pattern of daily bouts of
convection will continue through the long term period with
troughing situated to the northeast potentially developing into a
low pressure system would result in increased amounts of rainfall
before midweek. High temperatures through the weekend and into
next week will be above the seasonal average with max temps
potentially reaching up into the upper 90s and even the lower 100s
for inland areas. Potential for Heat Advisory conditions to
continue through the long term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions prevail at the coast with winds from the southeast,
which will begin to increase through 15z with steady winds between
10-12 kts with gust up to 25 kts. Lingering IFR ceilings inland (at
KGNV) will linger through around 13z before scattering out. An Atlc
sea breeze will push inland this afternoon which turn winds more
easterly and keep TSRA west of I-95 corridor, focusing best chances
at KVQQ and more so at KGNV from 20z through 01z. Otherwise, spotty
showers may develop along the sea breeze before 20z but TSRA is not
expected. Tonight, VFR conditions should prevail with only scattered
cirrus and a southeasterly wind at or below 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...

A broad area of low pressure continues to shift westward across
the northern Gulf today while the Atlantic high pressure extends
across the local waters. Breezy southerly winds between those two
features will continue this afternoon and evening then gradually
diminish overnight. The high will slide south and extend across
south Florida late Friday allowing weak offshore flow to develop.
Afternoon thunderstorm chances will be low through the rest of the
week and over the weekend but are expected to increase over the
waters next week as a trough shifts toward the area.

Rip Currents: A solid Moderate risk of rip currents is expected
today and Thursday as gusty South to Southeast winds will keep
surf/breakers in the 2-4 ft range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  30  10
SSI  88  79  89  79 /  10   0  20   0
JAX  93  75  94  76 /  30  10  50   0
SGJ  90  76  91  76 /  50  10  50   0
GNV  93  73  94  74 /  70  20  70  10
OCF  91  74  92  74 /  80  30  70  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$