231
FXUS62 KJAX 300637
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
237 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal Flooding Continues within the St Johns River through
  the weekend.

- High Surf Advisory for NE FL beaches and a High risk for Rip
  Currents continues at all beaches through the weekend.

- Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic waters likely through
  the Weekend

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night;
  Heavy Rainfall Possible across portions of NE FL south of
  I-10.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights:

- Minor to Moderate tidal flooding continues along the St Johns River
  basin, Atlantic Coast, and ICW

- Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue, especially at Northeast
  FL Beaches

Overall similar conditions across the area today, as high
pressure to our north weakens, but starts to get replaced by
another ridge building in from the north. This will keep a
northeasterly onshore flow persisting, though overall a bit
weaker, especially at the coast and over area waters. Coastal
Flood Warning persists for the St. Johns River Basin south of
downtown JAX, with advisories now in effect elsewhere. More
details on this situation can be found with the Hydro discussion
further below. Otherwise, occasional coastal showers will also
continue at times today and into tonight, especially at the
northeast FL coast. Low clouds will effect the coast and
portions of northeast FL, with more higher clouds also starting
to fill in from the west throughout the day as well. Highs will
remain in the mid to upper 70s generally near or east of I-95,
with low 80s inland.

A backdoor cold front will start to approach from the north
with a fresh ridge punching down the southeastern seaboard
tonight, though any changes/impacts from these features will
hold off until the day on Saturday. Lows tonight will range from
the 60s over southeast GA and inland FL to the low 70s closer
to the St. Johns River and coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal flooding and surf hazards continue through the weekend.

- Heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms for portions of NE
  FL on Sunday

The prolonged onshore flow will restrengthen through Saturday
as a reinforcing "backdoor" front pushes in along the edge of
progressive low level ridging. Though coastal flooding, maritime
and surf zone conditions will diminish in intensity going into
Saturday, the increasing northeasterlies will likely add more
potential for beach erosion while the "reverse flow" within the
St Johns River is likely to lead to Minor to Moderate flooding,
especially along the section of the river between Lake George
and Jacksonville.

Convergence along the frontal zone will bring a bout of
scattered coastal showers that is anticipated to expand inland
through the day Saturday. Not too confident in thunderstorm
potential given the meager instability but inland areas that
overachieve on afternoon high temps (low 80s) may be enough for
an isolated storm or two.

There is some uncertainty in how far south the front will make
it before it stalls. As it stalls, attention will turn towards a
dynamic upper disturbance moving across the region on Sunday. A
wave of surface low pressure developing beneath the shortwave
along the stalled front will strengthen convergence and may lead
to increased thunderstorm potential through Sunday evening and
potentially some training heavy rain bands, mainly across NE FL
south of I-10. Still on the early side to call for rain amounts
but ensemble guidance has reasonable high-end amounts only
around 2-3" Sunday into Monday.

Temperatures will stay fairly consistent through Saturday
before dropping a 3-6 degrees Sunday (highs in the mid/upper
70s) due to a mix of cooler air making it into SE GA and high
rain chances for NE FL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period: Sunday through Wednesday

- Thunderstorm potential returns midweek.

- Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone conditions.

There`s some uncertainty on the evolution of the surface trough
as it pushes off the Atlantic coast on Monday in whether it
hugs the coast and propagates northward or pushes eastward
offshore developing into a surface low. If it does develop and
strengthen along the coast heavy coastal rain bands are likely
to continue to through Monday. Guidance is in decent agreement
on a stronger frontal system developing east of the Rockies
early in the week and pushing a cold front and potential line of
thunderstorms into Florida Wednesday night or Thursday.
Confidence in severe convection remains low but with a later
arrival, potential may begin to increase.

Temperatures will stay fairly consistent around normal early
next week with some prefrontal warming during mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Primary concern through the morning hours will be MVFR and IFR
ceilings as onshore flow continues. Expecting IFR to prevail at
SGJ, VQQ and GNV, with more of a cut off further north and west.
This is causing some uncertainty with respect to impacts at
other terminals, but opted for prevailing MVFR at JAX and CRG at
this time only, with TEMPO groups for occasional IFR ceilings
possible. Also expecting VFR to prevail at SSI, though brief
MVFR or IFR cannot be ruled out later this morning. Onshore flow
around or just over 10 knots with periods of SHRA will continue
at most airfields Friday afternoon and evening, along with MVFR
ceilings for portions of the coast.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong high pressure over area waters will shift southward while
weakening slightly today. Another strong high pressure center
building southeastward from the Upper Midwest today will reach the
Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday, with this feature wedging down the
southeastern seaboard this weekend and early next week. Although a
slight lull in winds and seas is expected through tonight, the surge
is likely to strengthen hazards once again for the weekend. A wavy
stationary frontal boundary lifting slowly northward across the
Florida peninsula this weekend may generate numerous showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across our local
waters.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High Surf Advisories remain in effect for
the northeast FL beaches through tonight, where breakers of 5 to 6
feet will prevail. Breakers of 3 to 5 feet will prevail at the
southeast GA beaches today. These elevated, rough surf conditions
will maintain a high risk of deadly rip currents at all area beaches
through the upcoming weekend, and additional beach erosion is likely
to occur around times of high tide.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Persistent northeasterly winds will continue through the weekend as
a reinforcing front pushes into the area. Breezy winds will elevate
dispersions overnight while shallow daytime mixing keeps dispersion
poor near the coast. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
increase this weekend with potential for heavy rain across portions
of northeast Florida. Next week the onshore winds will begin to
relax as a frontal system approaches from the west during
midweek.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

As we continue to move away from the recent peak astronomical
tides earlier this week, Coastal Flood Warnings for the coast
have been downgraded to Coastal Flood Advisories, as mainly
minor flooding is forecast with localized marginal moderate
flooding remaining possible. Water levels will generally reach
2-2.5 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during times of
high tide south of the Downtown Jacksonville, and generally
1.5-2 feet above MHHW for the Atlantic Coast. The long duration
of this strong onshore wind event will produce additional beach
erosion during each high tide cycle through tonight. Onshore
winds pick up a bit this weekend, but impacts are expected to
remain overall similar as we continue to move away from the
recent full moon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  62  80  63 /   0   0  30   0
SSI  75  65  76  64 /   0  10  40  10
JAX  78  66  79  66 /  10  20  40  10
SGJ  77  70  79  70 /  40  30  40  20
GNV  82  68  82  68 /  10   0  10  20
OCF  83  68  83  70 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ038-125-
     132-137-225-325-633.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ124-138-
     233-333.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ154-166.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ452-454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

$$