785
FXUS62 KJAX 241722
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
122 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

This afternoon and Tonight...Forecast on track this afternoon as
hot and humid West to Southwest flow pattern will push Max Temps
into the mid/upper 90s and combine with dew points in the 70s to
produce widespread peak Heat Indices into the 105-110 range, with
Heat Advisory levels (HI>=108) expected along the I-95 corridor
(Atlantic Coastal Counties) and I-10 corridor (Portions of Inland
NE FL) this afternoon. Expect the W-SW flow to delay the onset of
the East Coast sea breeze moving inland until the late
afternoon/early evening hours, which will combine with shortwave
trough aloft, currently over GA/SC region that will track SE into
the local area and help to trigger scattered to numerous
showers/storms with isolated severe storms possible with damaging
downburst winds of 50-60 mph possible with storm mergers or storm
outflows that interact with the East Coast sea breeze. Slow and
erratic storm motion around 10 mph or less will also promote
localized flood threat in urban areas. With the late start to
convection today, expect storms to continue over inland areas
until around midnight, with convection fading during the early
overnight hours and mainly just fair skies and humid conditions
towards sunrise Tuesday morning. Warm overnight lows in the middle
70s inland and upper 70s/near 80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The region will be between high pressure to the east southeast, and
a series of troughs which will each stall just to the northwest of
the area this period. This pattern will yield a prevailing southwest
flow. It will be an unsettled period, with afternoon convection
initiated far inland, aided by the Gulf sea breeze. The east coast
sea breeze will make a little progress in the afternoons, but will
struggle to get past I95 due to push of the Gulf breeze. A secondary
max in convection will be possible in the afternoons due to
convergence of sea breezes near I95. Any activity which develops
during the afternoons is expected to dissipate during the evening
hours, with nights mainly dry.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

A pattern change is expected this period, with the high becoming
located more toward the east northeast. Troughs are still expected
to move into the southeastern US and stall to the northwest this
period. The prevailing flow will largely be from the south, with
both east and west coast sea breezes becoming active. Afternoon
merges of the sea breezes will be possible. Any activity which
develops in the afternoons will largely diminish during the evening
hours with loss of diurnal heating, with mainly dry nights.

Temperatures and precipitation chances will be above normal this
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

West-Southwest flow is kicking off some convergent showers along
the Big Bend Gulf Coast that are pushing slowly inland towards GNV
and will likely see some isolated convection (VCTS) kick off there
at the beginning of the TAF period, while all of the Atlantic
Coastal TAF sites will need to wait for the East Coast sea breeze
to push in late this afternoon/early evening before TEMPO groups
will likely be needed in the 21-02Z time frame for potential MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS and gusty winds. Convection will fade in the 03-06Z
time frame with VCSH becoming lingering VFR mid/high clouds during
the overnight hours. Expect some light MVFR fog possible at GNV/VQQ
around sunrise Tuesday morning, especially if rainfall occurs at
those locations this afternoon/evening. Any convection expected on
Tuesday will likely occur after the current TAF period and will
leave out of the current TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Persistent troughing will be to the northwest of the area this week.
High pressure to the east through Thursday, will move more toward
the northeast late in the week. Winds will approach advisory levels
this afternoon and evening, and winds will be below headline levels
the rest of the week.

Rip Currents: Moderate Today. Tuesday, Low SE GA and Moderate NE
FL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  99  74  99  75 /  40  20  30  10
SSI  94  78  92  78 /  40  30  40  20
JAX  99  76  96  75 /  50  50  60  20
SGJ  96  76  94  76 /  40  40  60  30
GNV  97  74  95  73 /  60  40  80  30
OCF  96  74  95  75 /  60  50  80  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-
     031-033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133-137-138-220-225-232-322-
     325-422-425-522.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ153-154-165-166.

AM...None.
&&

$$