641
FXUS62 KJAX 141750
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
150 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dangerously HOT through Next Week. Extreme Heat Warning
  Coastal Southeast GA Counties Today. Heat Advisory Elsewhere
  through 8 PM Today. Heat Advisory Saturday all local counties

- Scattered Strong and isolated severe thunderstorms this
  Afternoon and Evening, generally west of I-95. Storms Hazards: localized
  damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes, blinding
  rainfall, and areas of flooding.

- Daily Scattered Afternoon thunderstorms through the next 7
  days. Isolated severe thunderstorms for portions of Southeast
  GA possible on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights:

- Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisories in Effect Rest of Today

- Scattered Strong and isolated severe thunderstorms this
  Afternoon and Evening, generally west of I-95.

- Storms Hazards: localized damaging wind gusts, frequent
  lightning strikes, blinding rainfall, and areas of flooding.


A deeply moist and unstable airmass remains established. The
morning upper air sampled 2.34" of precipitable water which well
over the 90th percentile. This very moist setup will be able to
tap into premium-grade instability aloft, with sample most-
unstable CAPE also above the 90th percentile.

Dewpoints in the upper 70s with highs into middle 90s this
afternoon will send the peak Heat Index values into the 105-112
range for most locations this afternoon. The hottest part of the
day will be 2-6 PM today. Areawide heat advisory remains in
effect through 8 PM this evening. The hottest areas are still
expected along the SE GA coast where an Extreme Heat Warning is
in effect until 8 PM as well.

Stacked ridging to the west will keep a weak westerly steering
flow intact through the day upper-level easterly winds push
anvils westward. Expect the initial convective development to
focus along the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes this afternoon,
around 2 PM. The resulting outflow-sea breeze interactions will
gradually shift scattered convection toward the US-301 where an
early evening sea breeze merger will occur, generating numerous
storms. With today`s activity, a more pulse-like flavor of
convection is expected. While most convection should stay below
severe limits, given the degree of instability, a few isolated
severe storms cannot be entirely ruled out this afternoon and
evening. That means, precip-loaded downdrafts may produce gusty
downbursts up to 50 mph despite the meager DCAPE along with
frequent lightning and localized flooding.

After being worked over through the early evening, the loss of
daytime heating should promote a downward trend and weakening in
activity through 10 PM this evening. Given the amount of
surface moisture, temperatures will be slow to cool off this
evening and overnight, as lows fall back into the mid/upper 70s
by daybreak on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Saturday Afternoon/Evening

- Heat Index Values near or above Heat Advisory levels this weekend.

Dangerously hot temperatures continue this weekend, with the
entire area Saturday under a Heat Advisory, and Sunday likely
seeing Heat Advisory conditions as well (Heat Index 108-113
degrees). Some areas, especially near the southeast Georgia
coast, will approach Extreme Heat Warning criteria, so the need
to upgrade the Advisory to a Warning Saturday will be evaluated
tonight. High temperatures both days will be in the mid to upper
90s, with mild lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast for
Saturday, with highest chances generally I-10 northward where we
will have higher PWATs. Enough surface instability, moisture,
and higher DCAPE values will once again pose a damaging wind
threat with any strong to potentially isolated severe
thunderstorm development (focusing on southeast GA). The Storm
Prediction Center has areas generally NW of Waycross under a
Marginal severe risk, and the Weather Prediction has all of
southeast Georgia under a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook
for Saturday. Overall, storm chances are lower on Sunday, in the
20-30% chance areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Hazardous Heat Continues into Next Week, with Daily Heat
Advisories Possible

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening,
some which could become strong

Prolonged, hazardous heat continues Monday onward with high
temperatures generally in the mid to upper 90s and afternoon
heat index values reaching 106-113 degrees each day.

Early through mid-week, a front will be stalled across southern
Georgia, which will limit storm coverage across southeast
Georgia on Monday and Tuesday. The focus for convection will be
across northeast Florida, as west/southwest surface winds bring
the Gulf sea breeze far inland and the Atlantic sea breeze stays
fairly close to the east coast. Wednesday through Friday,
scattered afternoon and evening storms are expected each day
area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Sea breezes will continue inland this afternoon, reaching the
I-95 corridor around 20-21z. Early afternoon scattered
thunderstorms will continue to develop amid a very unstable
airmass. Periods of thunderstorms are likely at each airfield
with highest confidence (60-80%) for NE FL airfields. The
primary time frame with highest chances will be between 20-23z.
Heavy downpours are likely to degrade visibility at times to IFR
or LIFR. Outside of thunderstorm influence, VFR conditions
persist. Overnight winds will trend light (< 5 knots or less)
with mostly clear skies.

&&

.MARINE...

A stagnant weather pattern, dominated by an upper ridge and
reinforced surface trough to the north and surface high pressure
extended across central and southern Florida. This will result
in westerly, light offshore flow through the weekend and into
next week. A southeast or south wind shift will occur across the
near shore waters each afternoon as the sea breeze develops.
The majority of thunderstorm activity will be inland but an
isolated storm across the nearshore waters will be possible
through the weekend.

Rip Currents: Generally low risk through the weekend with a
prevailing offshore flow and low surf, around 2 feet. Low-end
Moderate risk may develop during the afternoons as the sea
breeze develops.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Heat Headlines in Effect

Warm temperatures will continue through the end of the week, with
highs in the mid 90s inland and lower to mid 90s along the coast
today. Above-normal temperatures will persist through the weekend,
with additional Heat Advisories likely, although isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms may provide some
relief and limit the duration of heat index values near or above
advisory criteria. A cold front will move south into the area
Saturday and stall near the Florida/Georgia line Sunday, focusing
the highest storm chances along and south of the boundary,
particularly toward the I-10 corridor Saturday. Dispersion looks to
be good through the weekend.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected. Any late-
night or early-morning fog should be shallow and patchy, mainly in
areas that receive locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  75  96  76 /  50  20  50  10
SSI  95  79  95  80 /  50  10  50  10
JAX  95  76  96  77 /  50  20  60  10
SGJ  94  77  95  77 /  40  10  30  10
GNV  95  74  95  75 /  60  30  30  10
OCF  96  75  96  75 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
     233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ021-023-
     024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-
     232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-
     633.
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
     151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ132>136-
     149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ153-
     154-165-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$