Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
095 FXUS62 KJAX 291856 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 256 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Numerous Thunderstorms through Late this Evening. Main Area of Concern: Inland Locations Between U.S. Highway 301 and I-75. Stronger Storms Will Be Capable of Producing Localized Flooding, Wind Gusts of 40-50 mph, and Frequent Lightning Strikes. - Waves of Showers and Thunderstorms through Monday. Widespread Additional Rainfall Totals of 1-3 Inches are Forecast, with Localized Higher Totals Possible. Daily Marginal Risk of Flooding, especially at Urban and Normally Flood-Prone, Low- Lying Areas. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Numerous Thunderstorms through Late this Evening. Main Area of Concern: Inland Locations Between U.S. Highway 301 and I-75. Stronger Storms Will Be Capable of Producing Localized Flooding, Wind Gusts of 40-50 mph, and Frequent Lightning Strikes. Afternoon surface analysis depicts a stalling frontal boundary that stretches across southeast GA. Meanwhile, high pressure (1020 millibars) was building over the Ohio Valley and the Mid- Atlantic states in the wake of this boundary. Aloft...an "Omega" blocking pattern remains in place across the country, featuring troughs over the western third of nation and also extending from the Great Lakes southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic states, while ridging prevails in between these features, extending from the southeastern states . northwestward through the Upper Midwest. This narrow ridge was steering a potent shortwave trough slowly northward across the Ozarks, with deep tropical moisture feeding into this shortwave from the central and eastern Gulf. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery displays this abundant tropical moisture nicely, with PWATs mostly in the 2 - 2.25 inch range throughout our area. Convection was blossoming this afternoon near the stalling frontal boundary along and just south of the Altamaha River in southeast GA, as well as along the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary near the I-95 corridor and also along the inland moving Gulf coast sea breeze across the FL Big Bend and Nature Coast. Outside of rain cooled locations, temperatures have generally warmed to the 85-90 degree range, with heat index values approaching 100. Convection should continue to increase in coverage this afternoon and evening as mesoscale boundary collisions increase, with activity likely congealing between the U.S. Highway 301 and Interstate 75 corridors in northeast and north central FL towards sunset. Scattered to numerous slow moving downpours and embedded thunderstorms will continue to focus near the stalling frontal boundary over southeast GA, especially for inland locations from Waycross northward. Light northwesterly steering flow and the presence of abundant tropical moisture will present a localized flood threat where stronger storms develop, especially at urban and normally flood prone, low-lying locations. The light northwesterly steering flow could shift convection that expands over inland north central and northeast FL back towards the I-95 corridor towards midnight, although these locations may be convectively "worked over" and may not support additional updrafts tonight. Weakening showers and perhaps a few persistent thunderstorms should then shift offshore overnight, while diffluent northwesterly flow aloft potentially developing another round of convection towards sunrise over Apalachee Bay and the FL Big Bend region. A warm and humid air mass will persist across our region near and south of the stalling front, keeping lows generally in the 70-75 range area-wide later tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Wet, Stormy Weekend. - Daily Localized Flooding Risk. A generally wet and stormy weekend expected as a frontal zone lingers over the area and interacts with daily sea breezes. Widespread wetting rain is expected for most locations each day, with locally heavy rainfall causing some minor temporary flooding issues. Saturday, southwest winds prevail with a faster inland progressing west coast sea breeze during the morning with more coverage of storms toward the east coast and across southeast GA in the afternoon and evening. Sunday, the lingering front and a surface low developing along the boundary will bring more rounds of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity into Sunday night. North of the front, along the southeast GA and portions of the northeast FL coast generally north of St. Augustine, breezy ENE winds develop into Sunday afternoon and evening. Forecast rainfall this weekend across southeast GA and northeast FL ranges from 1-3 inches, with localized higher end amounts of 3-6". Although much of this rainfall is welcomed, too much too fast especially in poor drainages areas will cause brief flooding. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall each day this weekend across the local area due to the risk of localized flooding rainfall. Most locations will continue to welcome the rainfall, with 6 month rainfall departures across much of southeast GA and northeast FL on the of 4 to 12 inches. Temperatures will trend below average for highs with peak values in the mid to upper 80s before storms with heat indices peaking in the mid to upper 90s. Overnight lows range from the upper 60s across inland SE GA to the mid 70s toward the Atlantic coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Warmer with Less Storm Coverage by Tuesday. - Cooler, breezy & drier with inland storm Wednesday-Friday. Elevated rain chances continue Monday as the frontal zone lingers over the local area while gradually settling southward. Models are trending toward a broad surface low developing along the boundary early Monday, which could enhance localized flooding risk especially toward the coast north of the low center & along the surface front where convergence would be greatest. By Tuesday, models are in good agreement shifting the front south of the local forecast area with much drier air (PWAT falling below 1 inch) under drier NW steering flow which will bring lower rain chances and enable temperatures to warm back toward climo values. Wednesday through Friday, a much drier pattern unfolds with below normal PWAT and breezy onshore, easterly flow as surface high pressure builds north of the region Tuesday, then the ridge settles south and east building offshore of the southeast Atlantic sea board into late next week. Looking drier with pleasant, near to below average temperatures with highs in the 80s and mild lows in the 60s to 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms developing along the I-95 corridor near the Duval County terminals, SSI and SGJ will push slowly south- southeastward this afternoon. Meanwhile, convection developing along the inland moving Gulf coast sea breeze should approach the GNV terminal towards or after 22Z. TEMPO groups for brief wind gusts up to 25-30 knots and IFR conditions during heavier downpours were used at the Duval County terminals, SSI and SGJ through around 22-23Z. Convection will likely extend well into the evening hours at GNV, where mesoscale boundary collisions may keep the potential for thunderstorms in place through around 04Z. Convection should shift westward and away from the remainder of the terminals towards 00Z. IFR to LIFR conditions due to fog and low stratus clouds are expected to develop at VQQ after 04Z Saturday, with confidence now high enough to forecast lower MVFR ceilings of 1,000 - 2,000 feet elsewhere, beginning by 09Z. Showers and embedded thunderstorms developing over the northeast Gulf early on Saturday morning may impact the GNV terminal after 13Z. However, confidence was too low to indicate anything other than vicinity shower coverage at this time. && .MARINE... A frontal boundary positioned over the Georgia waters this afternoon will become stationary tonight and will then lift slowly northward as a warm front on Saturday. Meanwhile, high pressure building over the Great Lakes will drive a cold front into the southeastern states on Saturday afternoon, with this front stalling near the Florida and Georgia border on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely increase across our local waters late this afternoon and evening, with additional rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms expected through Monday evening. A stronger cold front will then sweep southward across our area on Tuesday, with this boundary likely stalling south of our local waters by midweek. High pressure will wedge down the southeastern seaboard in the wake of this frontal passage, creating breezy northeasterly winds beginning on Tuesday evening and likely persisting through at least Thursday evening. Rip Currents: With general wind forecasts will be fairly weak today through Saturday, and seas at area buoys are 3 ft or less. Still lingering wind-sea swells about 8 or 9 seconds, and surf of averaging about 2 ft, possibly 3 ft at the most. Most of the energy from the east-southeast direction so longshore current will be toward the north. All in all, a low-end moderate risk Friday, and may trend a little lower on Saturday given offshore flow and model guidance showing lower seas/surf. && .FIRE WEATHER... A generally wet and stormy weekend expected as a frontal zone lingers over the area and interacts with daily sea breezes. Widespread wetting rain is expected for most locations each day, with locally heavy rainfall causing some minor temporary flooding issues. Saturday, southwest winds prevail with a faster inland progressing west coast sea breeze during the morning with more coverage of storms toward the east coast and across southeast GA in the afternoon and evening. Sunday, the lingering front and a surface low developing along the boundary will bring more rounds of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity into Sunday night. Minimum humidity will remain above critical values. Lower daytime dispersions below 30 units on Sunday near the meandering frontal zone where winds will be weaker. North of the front, along the southeast GA and portions of the northeast FL coast generally north of St. Augustine, breezy ENE winds develop into Sunday afternoon and evening. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected into early next week, but patchy morning fog will be possible in areas where heavy rain recently falls. Erratic winds will occur from thunderstorm activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 86 68 81 / 50 60 70 80 SSI 74 88 72 83 / 40 60 70 80 JAX 72 89 71 85 / 50 80 70 90 SGJ 74 89 73 86 / 60 70 50 90 GNV 72 88 72 88 / 70 60 30 90 OCF 73 87 73 88 / 40 60 30 80 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$