233
FXUS62 KJAX 132338
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
738 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 737 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Scattered and mainly gardern-variety convection is beginning to
fade, though batches of scattered showers with isolated storms
continue through sunset. Adjusted PoPs and thunder chances to fit
current radar coverage and expected trends over the next few
hours. Scattered debris cloud cover will fade away as well through
the late evening with mostly clear conditions, allowing
temperatures to fall to the low/mid 70s. The Bermuda ridge axis
will slide southward through tonight setting up a moist
southwesterly flow. As this unfolds, the focus for convection
Saturday will be focused along the I-95 corridor during the
afternoon hours.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Afternoon surface analysis depicts Atlantic high pressure (1025
millibars) centered near Bermuda, with this feature extending its
axis westward across our region. Aloft...ridging was centered over
the northwestern Bahamas and the FL peninsula, while a slow
moving trough was progressing across the Ozarks and the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable
Water imagery indicates that deep tropical moisture remains
entrenched across our area, with PWATs generally around 2 inches.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms were overspreading locations
along and north of the I-10 corridor this afternoon, with more
isolated coverage thus far for areas closer to the deep-layered
ridge axis across north central FL. Brisk low level southerly
flow, noted in this morning`s sounding at Jacksonville, was
steering convection generally northward around 15-20 mph.
Temperatures at 19Z have climbed to the lower 90s at inland
locations where conditions remain dry, with 80s elsewhere.
Dewpoints remain in the 70s area-wide.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

An abundance of tropical moisture across our region will continue
to foster and increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms over
much of our area through this evening. Colliding mesoscale
boundaries may result in a few storms pulsing, with a few wet
microbursts possibly producing brief wind gusts in the 40-50 mph
range, along with frequent lightning strikes and torrential
downpours. Storm motion around 15 knots should limit the potential
for widespread flooding, but a few instances of "training"
downpours, falling repeatedly over the same locations, could
result in localized flooding later this afternoon through early
this evening, especially if these repeated downpours occur at
urban or normally flood prone, low-lying locations. The Weather
Prediction Center has thus included most of our area within a
"Marginal" Risk (level 1 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall this
afternoon and evening.

Convection late this afternoon that will likely concentrate along
the U.S. Highway 301 corridor should shift back towards I-95
early this evening as anvils get steered by the higher altitude
southwesterly flow pattern. Most activity will dissipate or shift
offshore by midnight, with debris cloudiness gradually thinning
out during the predawn hours. Low level south to southwesterly
flow will keep lows in the low to mid 70s inland, ranging to the
mid and upper 70s at coastal locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Surface high pressure will be centered to the east northeast
Saturday, and more directly to the east Saturday night through
Sunday night. The position of the high will make subtle changes in
the low level flow, but the result will roughly be the same. The
east coast sea breeze will push past I-95, and diurnal convection
will initiate across the area. The axis of the upper ridge will be
just south of the region. With light flow from the southwest in
the afternoons, and the flow north of upper ridge also from the
southwest, storms which develop will drift to the east northeast.
So, even if the convection develops west of an area due to the sea
breeze, that area could have it move back in later in the day.

Afternoon convection coverage will be scattered to numerous.
Precipitation will diminish during the evening hours with loss of
diurnal heating.

Temperatures will trend a little above normal this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Surface high pressure will be east of the region through Wednesday,
with daily convection expected due to diurnal heating and sea
breeze interactions. The position of the upper ridge overhead
will provide subsidence to help limit strength of activity.
Temperatures will run about 5 degrees above normal through
Wednesday.

The pattern changes for Thursday into Friday. The surface high
will become centered more to the east southeast, as a surface
trough moves into the southeastern US. An upper trough will also
dig into the southeastern US late in the week as well, helping to
increase instability with increased potential for stronger storms.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms late in the week.
Temperatures will be about 5 to 7 degrees above normal Thursday
into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Lackluster convection will continue to trend downward. Other than
light showers with convective leftovers, thunderstorm impacts are
not expected through the rest of the evening. Quiet conditions
overnight with perhaps shallow ground fog developing at inland
sites by daybreak Saturday. More convective coverage at Jax Metro
sites and other airfields along the I-95 corridor Saturday
afternoon, beginning as early as 17z. Outside of thunderstorms and
patchy fog, prevailing VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1129 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Atlantic high pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to
extend its axis across our local waters through the weekend. This
weather pattern will create a prevailing southerly wind flow,
with afternoon sea breezes over the near shore waters bringing
speeds up to Caution levels, while a southerly wind surge results
in Caution conditions offshore this evening. Late afternoon and
evening thunderstorms are likely across our local waters through
Saturday, with coverage then expected to decrease slightly from
Sunday through the middle portions of next week. Seas of 2 to 4
feet will prevail throughout our local waters outside of
thunderstorm activity during the next several days.

Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds developing following the
passage of the sea breeze this afternoon will combine with a weak
east-southeasterly swell and a southerly long shore current to
create a moderate risk at all area beaches through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1129 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Breezy southerly transport winds will create good daytime
dispersion values at most inland locations this afternoon, with
breezy onshore winds this afternoon at coastal locations yielding
fair daytime dispersion values. Transport winds will shift to
southwesterly during the weekend, with gradually decreasing speeds
generally yielding fair values on Saturday. Elevated mixing
heights on Sunday will create good daytime dispersion values
across inland portions of southeast GA, with fair values forecast
elsewhere. Scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend, with
a gradual decrease in coverage expected during the early and
middle portions of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  73  89  72 /  70  70  60  20
SSI  87  77  85  76 /  60  60  70  40
JAX  91  74  91  74 /  70  50  70  30
SGJ  90  76  89  75 /  50  50  60  40
GNV  91  73  91  73 /  60  50  60  20
OCF  92  73  91  73 /  70  60  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$