386
FXUS62 KJAX 152327
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
627 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Daily Inland Late Night & Early Morning Fog. Tonight Main
  Impact Area: Suwannee Valley Region. Impacts: Low visibility
  near I-10 & I-75 corridors

- Extended Dry Spell through Next Week.Severe to Extreme Drought
  Inland Southeast GA & Northern Suwannee Valley. Drought expanded
  to expand next week. Be very cautious with outdoor flames check
  for local burning bans

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

No major changes to ongoing forecast other than to expand areas of
dense fog across the Suwannee River valley toward sunrise Sunday
morning which will be under the influence of the surface ridge
across northeast Florida and weaker boundary layer winds. Shallow
low level moisture advection from the Gulf increased dew pts into
the 50s across the Suwannee River Valley over the past few hours.

An elevated pressure gradient between the north Florida surface
ridge and an approaching dry front north of the region will keep
boundary layer winds elevated across southeast GA and toward the
Atlantic coast, which will keep the airmass more mixed and limit
fog potential tonight.

Limited clouds and continued dry low level conditions will bring
chilly inland lows in the 40s to low 50s, with coastal lows in the
50s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 1206 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

A pleasant Saturday afternoon is expected across our area as high
pressure keeps light westerly winds over most of the area while
more variable along the coast where a weak seabreeze will bring
winds around from the east and then south later this afternoon.
Ridging and north to northwest flow aloft will provide subsidence
that will nearly eliminate clouds except for high thin cirrus
clouds scraping southeast ahead of a shortwave crossing north of
the region. So Sunny, dry and warm conditions will allow high
temps to reach near 80 over inland NE FL south of I-10 with upper
70s north of I-10 into inland SE GA while mid 70s expected along
the coast.

Tonight, high pressure will sink into central FL with initially
light winds from the west southwest elevating to around 10-15 mph
over northern portions of inland SE GA north of US82 and along the
coast as the pressure gradient increases as a a cold front moves
south towards our area Sunday morning. Clear skies overnight will
include increasing low stratus from the Gulf associated with a
combo of advection fog/low stratus from the Gulf waters and
cooling temperatures to below 50F west of Jacksonville supporting
areas of fog development from Okefenokee swamp south across the
Osceola National Forest and into the Suwannee and Santa Fe river
valleys. Areas of dense fog may develop at times as wind will be
around 5 mph over inland NE FL overnight with fog coverage
thinning east of highway 301 where lows moderate towards the
coast. Lows will fall into the upper 40s over inland locations
south of US82 into I-10 and the Santa Fe river to around 50F
elsewhere for inland areas and the mid 50s at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1206 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Sunday...Next cold frontal boundary will approach the local area
as it tracks southward through the SE states. This will increase
the local pressure gradient and expect Westerly winds to become
breezy through the day with sustained winds of 15-20 mph by the
afternoon hours and peak wind gusts around 30 mph or so. Atmosphere
will be too dry to support any rainfall, but the west winds will
push temps to above normal levels into the upper 70s/near 80F
area-wide, but well below record levels for mid-November.

Sunday Night...Dry cold frontal boundary will press southward
through the local SE GA/NE FL area and should be just south of
the I-10 corridor of North FL by sunrise Monday morning. Still
not expecting any rainfall with this feature with PoP chances
less than 10 percent. The slightly elevated winds will keep Min
temps in the 50s across NE FL, while some upper 40s/near 50F
readings are expected across SE GA behind the frontal passage.
Fog chances will be suppressed south of the I-10 corridor across
inland NE FL, but remain low at this time due to the increased low
level winds with the frontal boundary.

Monday...Frontal boundary settles just south of the local area
across Central FL with a dry and mild Northwest flow across SE GA
and NE FL. Mostly sunny skies and lighter winds are expected as
high pressure builds just north of the region and low level winds
shift to the Northeast around 10 mph or so by Monday afternoon.
Max temps slightly lower across SE GA in the lower/middle 70s, but
still into the mid/upper 70s across NE FL.

Monday Night...Weak high pressure ridge will remain across the
local area, and expect cool overnight temps under mostly clear
skies with lows in the 40s inland and 50s along the Atlantic
Coast. Inland fog chances are expected again, but the drier air
mass should only support locally dense fog by sunrise Tuesday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1206 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Tuesday...Weak High pressure ridge axis remains across the local
area with dry weather conditions and moderating temps with highs
around 80F for all inland locations, but still likely below record
warm values at local climate sites. Inland Fog chances increase
slightly with lows around 50F inland and mid/upper 50s along the
Atlantic Coast.

Wednesday...High pressure ridge axis lifts slightly northward
allowing for slightly warmer afternoon temps into the lower 80s
inland areas area-wide, with better chances for reaching record high
values for November 19th listed below in the Climate section.
Increasing low level moisture and dew point temps will not be
enough to trigger rainfall chances, but enough to increase fog
chances during the overnight hours, with Dense Fog potential
increasing Wednesday Night.

Thursday...High pressure pushes into the Western Atlantic and
southerly flow increases ahead of the next frontal boundary, which
will push Max temps into the lower/middle 80s over inland areas
and once again near record levels listed in the Climate section.
Increasing dew points and low level moisture may exceed even some
of the nearshore sea surface temps and inland fog and even some
sea fog potential exists by Thursday night time frame.

Friday...Both the GFS/ECMWF long range models are suggesting that
at least a weakening frontal boundary will push into the region
late Friday or into Friday night with lower end rainfall chances
and possibly a thunderstorm if the boundary remains strong enough.
Overall Friday will likely be near breezy and warm with near
record Max Temps in the lower/middle 80s again listed in the
Climate section below. Fog chances remain in place during the
overnight hours with lows only in the mid/upper 50s area-wide.

Saturday...Long range models start to diverge with the GFS
progressing the frontal boundary south of the local area, while
the ECMWF stalls the frontal boundary and lifts it northward by
Saturday Night. Latest NBM model blends leaning towards the warmer
scenario with near record warmth continuing with highs in the
lower/middle 80s inland and lingering low end rainfall chances,
but confidence in this time frame weather pattern into the
following weekend remains moderate at best for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR through 06z as winds become WSW 3-6 kts. Fog and stratus still
expected to impact GNV after 06z, and may expand far enough east
to impact VQQ by 12z Sunday. Updated GNV for prevailing MVFR
after 08z with TEMPO LIFR between 9-13z given persistence in
guidance. Added tempo MVFR at VQQ between 7-11z, but restriction
confidence lower at VQQ. After 13z, VFR prevails as breezy
westerly winds after 14z with gusts 20-22 kts across all terminals
ahead of approaching dry surface front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 614 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Added the Small Craft Exercise Caution headline beginning tonight
for the outer winds and extended it through Sunday night.

High pressure will shift south of the local waters tonight into
Sunday as a surface trough moves offshore of the southeast Atlantic
seaboard. Westerly winds will increase to Exercise Caution levels
tonight through Sunday night as this trough approaches and then
moves south of the local waters. High pressure builds northeast of
the region Monday into Tuesday with a return of easterly winds. The
high builds east of the local waters mid to late week. A daily east
coast sea breeze is expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1206 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Moisture levels will improve MinRH values slightly on Sunday
briefly as a front approaches, but higher transport winds will
result in areas of high dispersion on Sunday for inland locations.
Critically low MinRH values return north of I-10 on Monday for
inland locations with calmer winds than Sunday keeping dispersion
good. Moisture will gradually improve through the week keeping
MinRH above concerning values, although no precipitation is in the
forecast this week, likely further worsening drought conditions.

Patchy to areas of fog are expected inland late tonight and again
Sunday night, mainly across inland Northeast Florida, where
locally dense fog is expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1206 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

                          WED 11/19  THU 11/20  FRI 11/21  SAT 11/22

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)     84/1958    86/1988    84/1991    84/1973
Craig Exec Arpt  (CRG)     82/1984    86/1988    82/2004    81/1997
Gainesville, FL  (GNV)     90/1906    88/1906    86/1973    86/1906
Alma, Georgia    (AMG)     82/1942    83/1942    83/2011    83/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  78  50  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  77  55  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  79  50  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  78  55  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  80  50  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  79  50  79  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$