823
FXUS62 KJAX 251709
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
109 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

HOT and dry conditions prevail with highs topping out in the mid to
upper 90s across southeast Georgia and northeast Florida.

Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) was spinning slowly
westward across the northwestern Bahamas. Latest GOES-East derived
Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that an unseasonably
dry air mass prevails for locations south of Interstate 10, where
PWATS were in the 1.4 - 1.6 inch range, while values are only
slightly below climatology for locations along and north of I-10,
where values were mostly in the 1.55 - 1.65 inch range.
High pressure is over northern GA and the Carolinas. At the
surface, high pressure extends across the Florida peninsula.
Locally, easterly winds will prevail around 6 to 10 mph, with
some 15 mph gusts along the coast, behind the east coast sea breeze.
Gulf coast sea breeze to move inland this afternoon, and this
boundary should have just enough moisture to work with for isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop late this
afternoon and early this evening along the I-75 and U.S. Highway
441 corridors in our western counties near the Suwannee and
Alapaha Rivers. High resolution models for potential nocturnal MCS
activity moving down from South Carolina into SE GA and Suwannee Valley
overnight. Trends continue to show this MCS feature having an
advection axis from Jesup through Folkston into the Suwannee Valley
between 2 AM and 6 AM. We will see how this resolves. Guidance shows
plenty of instability, moisture and 500mb temperatures between -8 and
-10 degrees C pushes into the region. This environment should support
strong thunderstorm capable of producing hail and damaging winds if
they materialize tonight. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s inland to
upper 70s at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Surface high pressure will build east of the region Thursday, with
an upper low located over central FL. The flow around the surface
high will be from the southeast Thursday, and fairly light. The east
coast sea breeze will move well inland during the day, with the Gulf
sea breeze moving inland to a little east of the I75 corridor. The
combination of sea breeze interactions and diurnal heating will be
enough to initiate convection, especially inland, with the upper low
providing additional instability. So, there will be a pretty good
gradient in pops from east to west, with slight chance near the east
coast, and likely chances around I75 corridor. Temperatures will run
a little above average Thursday.

The convective activity will decrease in intensity and coverage
during the evening hours, with a dry overnight forecast for Thursday
night. Lows near average.

On Friday, the surface high center will be more to the southeast,
with the upper low centering more overhead. The flow around the high
will be fairly light, and largely from the southwest. This pattern
will allow the Gulf sea breeze to move toward the east coast, while
the east coast sea breeze pushes inland. The intersection of the
sea breezes will occur a little west of I95. The combination of
diurnal heating, sea breeze interactions, and instability from upper
low will lead to above average precipitation chances. With the Gulf
sea breeze being more dominant, precipiation coverage will be more
uniform across area. Highs will trend a little above average.

Convection will largely dissipate Friday evening, with a mainly dry
overnight forecast. Lows will be near seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

The surface high center will remain to the southeast as it moves a
little further away Saturday. The upper high will weaken to the
north Saturday. The Gulf sea breeze will remain dominant, with
interaction with east coast sea breeze occuring near I95. Convective
chances will remain above normal for Saturday, with a fairly uniform
spread of the activity across area. Highs will trend a little above
average. Convection will decrease in coverage Saturday night with
lows near seasonal.

A surface trough will develop over the southeastern US Sunday, with
surface high to the east southeast. This trough coupled with
diurnal instability and sea breeze interactions will keep
precipitation chances above average. Highs will be near average
Sunday. Once again a decrease in coverage of precipitation is
expected for Sunday night.

Surface high pressure will be centered to the east during the early
to middle part of next week, with weak upper troughing. Daily rounds
of showers and storms will be expected, mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours. Temperatures will trend near seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR conditions should then prevail area-wide by 18Z. A few
showers and thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon along
the Gulf coast sea breeze near the Interstate 75 corridor, but
confidence was too low to indicate anything other than vicinity
coverage at GNV after 22Z. A squall line of strong to potentially
severe thunderstorms may develop over the Carolinas this evening
and is expected to sweep southward late tonight, potentially
impacting our terminals during the overnight hours. PROB30 groups
were used from around 06Z through 10Z for strong wind gusts of
30-35 knots and MVFR to IFR visibilities during heavier downpours.
We will continue to refine timing and impacts of this potential
overnight squall line in subsequent TAF issuances. Easterly wind
winds through rest of the evening with speeds 6 ro 10 knots.
Surface winds will shift to southeasterly at 5-10 knots towards
00Z Thursday at the regional terminals. Primary light winds
tonight with best potential for thunderstorm gusts near KSSI
between 06z and 08z. During the daylight hours Thursday, may be
scattered cumulus developing by mid to late morning as day warms
up with some cirroform clouds above.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

High pressure centered directly over our local waters will weaken
and shift southward as a surface trough develops over
the southeastern states tonight Strong to severe thunderstorms
developing along this trough over the Carolinas this evening may
sweep southward across the Georgia waters late on Wednesday
night. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and frequent lightning strikes
will be possible with any severe thunderstorms that move through
our area after midnight. Atlantic high pressure will then extend
its axis westward across the Florida peninsula from Thursday
through the early portions of next week as surface troughing
gradually sharpens over the southeastern states, creating a
prevailing offshore wind flow. Afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will likely push eastward across our local waters
each day during this period, with daily strong storm potential.
Seas of 2 to 3 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore
during the next several days.

Rip Currents: Onshore winds will combine with a persistent
easterly ocean swell to create a lower end moderate risk at the
northeast FL beaches. Low surf heights should keep the risk low
at the southeast GA beaches. Similar conditions will prevail
late this week through the upcoming weekend at area beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  94  70  91 /  60  40  30  60
SSI  77  88  74  89 /  40  10  10  40
JAX  73  92  71  93 /  30  30  20  70
SGJ  75  90  73  91 /  20  20  10  70
GNV  72  94  71  93 /  30  80  40  80
OCF  72  93  71  92 /  30  80  40  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$