913
FXUS62 KJAX 271914
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
314 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dangerously Hot & Humid Weather Continues Through Mid-Week.
  Heat Advisories in Effect Today and Tuesday. Heat Indices up
  to 112 Possible. Heat Advisories Likely and Extreme Heat
  Watches Possible for Wednesday.

- Another Round of Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Could Sweep
  South or Southeastward Across Our Area Late this Afternoon
  through the Overnight Hours. Damaging Wind Gusts, Frequent
  Lightning Strikes, and Torrential Downpours will be Possible
  into the Overnight Hours.

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms
  Tuesday.

- Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Expected on Wednesday and
  Wednesday Evening.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches.

- Stormy Weather Pattern Develops Late this Week and through the
  Weekend. Daily rounds of mainly afternoon and evening
  thunderstorms, which may become strong to severe.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights For Today and Tonight:

- Heat Advisories Continue this Afternoon and Again on Tuesday.
  Heat Indices Peak at 106-112 Degrees Each Afternoon Across
  Our Area.

- Another Round of Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Could Sweep
  South or Southeastward Across Our Area Late this Afternoon
  through the Overnight Hours.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts a slow moving frontal
boundary that was crossing the Savannah River Valley in
Georgia, with this feature extending across the Tennessee
Valley. Meanwhile, weak high pressure (1018 millibars) was
situated over central and western portions of the Gulf, with
this feature creating a prevailing northwesterly wind flow
across most of our area. Aloft..."Heat Wave" ridging remains
centered over the Four Corners region and the Southern Plains
states, while a potent shortwave trough was pivoting across
coastal New England. This weather pattern was creating
northwesterly flow aloft across our region, with embedded
shortwaves within this flow pushing across north central FL and
upstream from our area across central and western GA. An area of
subsidence located in between these shortwaves has overspread
most of northeast FL and southeast GA, where PWATs have fallen
to around 1.5 inches, while values around the aforementioned
shortwaves in north central FL and upstream over central and
western GA were closer to 2 inches. Strong and isolated severe
storms that developed along the I-95 corridor in St. Johns and
Flagler Counties along the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze
boundary have since weakened as they have pushed inland past the
I-95 corridor, with more isolated activity developing over the
rest of northeast and north central FL, mostly along mesoscale
boundaries. Outside of rain cooled locations, temperatures at
19Z were generally in the low to mid 90s, with dewpoints in the
70s.

Convection associated with the departing shortwave trough over
north central FL will continue to sink south and southeastward
during the next few hours, with the drier and more subsident
air mass in place over northeast FL and southeast GA likely
limiting convective development to isolated or widely scattered,
triggered mainly by mesoscale features such as convective
outflows and sea/river/lake breezes. Attention then turns to the
upstream shortwave over central and western GA that will dive
southeastward across our area later this afternoon and evening.
PWATs will increase to around 2 inches as this feature traverses
our area, and enough instability may be in place for
thunderstorms to erupt as this shortwave travels across
southeast GA. Short term models are not in very good agreement
on how this scenario will unfold, so model blends indicate
scattered rain chances for southeast GA and northeast FL through
the evening hours. Another round of strong to severe storms
will be possible as this shortwave trough traverses our area,
potentially as a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that would
present a threat for damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph, along
with frequent lightning strikes and torrential downpours. This
potential MCS feature should then weaken after midnight (if it
develops at all) as moves across north central FL. Debris cloud
cover will thin out from north to south overnight, with lows
generally in the mid to upper 70s across our area. Some record
warm minimum temperatures could be challenged, especially if
convection doesn`t materialize (see "Climate" section below for
details).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Reduced Thunderstorm Coverage Tuesday, Higher Storm Chances
  Return Wednesday.

- Potential for Isolated Strong to Severe Storms, Especially
Wednesday.

- Heat Advisory Tuesday, Likely Needed Wednesday As Well.

A cool front will drop southward throughout Tuesday and into
Tuesday Night, stalling over southeast GA for Wednesday and
likely beyond as well. Guidance is in good agreement with
respect to some drier air remaining in place aloft on Tuesday as
seen on forecast soundings, which will overall reduce
convective chances, especially for southeast GA. Therefore
highest PoPs (generally in the 30-40% range) will be found south
of I-10 in northeast FL. Given the pockets of drier air,
localized stronger downbursts will be possible, especially where
the best lift from the east coast sea breeze and/or
mergers/boundary collisions occur. Though some drier air will
allow afternoon dew points to mix down slightly below normal for
this time of year, widespread high temperatures in the 90s to
near 100 has already prompted a Heat Advisory area-wide Tuesday,
with forecast heat indices generally in the 107-112 range. It
is also worth noting that Tuesday Night is expected to be quite
mild as well, with widespread upper 70s forecast and some areas
possibly not dropping below 80F. Along with near record high max
temps, some climate sites may also flirt with record high min
temps Wednesday Morning.

The above mentioned front will drop even further south on
Wednesday as some energy from a mid/upper trough also drops
southward with it. These factors combined with the return of
more robust moisture will result in more numerous to widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area, some of which could
be strong to isolated severe. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
has already highlighted much of our area in a marginal (level
1/5) risk for severe storms, which will likely be adjusted over
the next 24-36 hours. Along with very heavy downpours and
flooding potential as PWATs exceed 2 inches, strong downbursts
up to 40-60mph are forecast to be the other primary hazard as
temps aloft look to be on the warmer side for any hail
development. More updates to be narrowed down through Tuesday.
Wednesday will be another very hot one prior to the onset of any
convection as well, with Heat Advisories being likely once
again with widespread high temps in the upper 90s and forecast
heat indices around 108-113F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily rounds of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms,
which may become strong to severe

The above mentioned front looks to remain nearly stationary
across southeast GA late in the week as some shortwave energy
aloft also continues to come in waves at times as an upper
trough slowly moves east into the Atlantic. The front will start
to lift back northward a bit this upcoming weekend in response.
This pattern will persist higher chances for showers and
t`storms for much of the long term period. This setup will
likely come with continuing chances for strong to isolated
severe storms given abundant moisture/lift and some upper
support. A more active pattern will drop temperatures closer to
normal for this period overall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Showers and thunderstorms will shift inland this afternoon, but
the widely scattered nature of this activity yields rather low
confidence for impacts at GNV, where a PROB30 group for briefly
gusty winds and MVFR conditions during heavier downpours was
maintained through around 02Z. Confidence elsewhere remains too
low for anything other than vicinity shower coverage through
around 01Z. Attention then turns to an upstream disturbance that
will likely trigger another round of thunderstorms over inland
southeast GA after 21Z, with this activity pushing southeastward
this evening, potentially impacting the northeast FL terminals
and SSI towards or after 02Z. We added PROB30 groups for briefly
gusty winds and MVFR conditions during heavier downpours. TEMPO
groups for IFR conditions and stronger wind gusts may need to
be added for the 02Z - 06Z time frame for our TAF sites later
this afternoon or during the 00Z TAF cycle, as confidence in
this potential second round of convection, which could be strong
to severe, increases. Activity should push southeast of our TAF
sites by 08Z Tuesday, with periods of MVFR visibilities
possible during the predawn hours at VQQ.

The Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes will collide near the U.S.
Highway 301 corridor towards 00Z, with surface winds shifting
to southwesterly around 10 knots at GNV towards 21Z as the Gulf
sea breeze boundary crosses the terminal. East-southeasterly
surface winds around 10 knots will prevail at the rest of the
northeast FL terminals through around 00Z. Surface winds will
become southerly at 5-10 knots after 00Z, outside of potential
convective impacts that could last until around 06Z Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...

A slow moving frontal boundary approaching the Georgia waters
will stall tonight and will dissipate on Tuesday. Strong to
severe storms could impact portions of our local waters this
evening and during the overnight hours. Light prevailing
westerly winds are forecast on Tuesday, with the afternoon sea
breeze potentially triggering isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms through the evening hours, mainly
across the northeast Florida waters.

Another frontal boundary will sink into the Deep South late this
week, with this feature becoming stationary during the weekend.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible well in advance
of this front on Wednesday afternoon and evening across our
local waters. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue
across the northeast Florida waters on Thursday and Friday, with
less coverage currently forecast for the Georgia waters. Waves
of showers and thunderstorms will then overspread all of our
local waters during the upcoming weekend. Outside of expected
thunderstorm activity, southwesterly winds will prevail and will
strengthen ahead of the approaching front beginning towards
midweek, with Caution conditions likely through the upcoming
weekend and periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

Rip Currents: A low end moderate risk of rip currents is
expected today and Tuesday at Northeast FL and Southeast GA
beaches due to an afternoon sea breeze and surf/breakers of 1-2
feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

-Heat Indices in the advisory range for much of the area
 through Wednesday.

-Patchy high daytime dispersions this week.

Some drier air will have impacts to shower and thunderstorm
chances both today and Tuesday, ahead of a frontal boundary
that will drop southward Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Through
Tuesday, areas south of I-10 in northeast FL will have the
highest chances for these showers and storms. Outside of these
chances, hot and humid conditions will be expected with heat
advisories for almost all counties today, and for the entirety
of the area Tuesday. Good dispersions are also forecast for all
but the immediate coast through mid week, with some patchy high
dispersions possible north of about I-10 by Wednesday. Chances
for showers and storms also increase by Wednesday as the same
frontal boundary stalls over southeast GA.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected
during the next several mornings. Heat Advisories are in
effect for this afternoon as well as Tuesday afternoon, and may
be needed Wednesday as well. Daily thunderstorm chances this
week, with greatest chances beginning mid week. Gusty and
erratic winds can be expected in and near storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily record high temperatures and record warm minimum
temperatures at our designated climate sites on Tuesday and
Wednesday:

July 28:
KJAX: 104/1872   80/1885
KGNV: 100/2025   77/2014
KAMG: 100/2006   78/2014
KCRG: 100/2025   80/2014

July 29:
KJAX: 101/2025   80/1877
KGNV: 100/2025   79/2025
KAMG: 99/2025    77/2017
KCRG: 101/2016   79/2017

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  99  78  98 /  20   0   0  50
SSI  79  99  82  99 /  20  10   0  70
JAX  77  98  79  98 /  20  20   0  70
SGJ  78  96  79  97 /  20  30  10  50
GNV  78  97  79  95 /  40  30  10  40
OCF  78  95  79  94 /  40  40  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
     233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ021-023-
     024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-
     232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-
     633.
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ136-151>154-
     162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ132>136-
     149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$