701
FXUS62 KJAX 241745
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
145 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Nor`easter Conditions through Saturday. Life-
  threatening Rip Currents and Surf Zone Conditions. Minor Tidal
  Flooding this Evening and possibly Friday Morning. Elevated
  tides in the St Johns River through the Weekend. Minor Beach
  Erosion Possible through Saturday. Small Craft Advisories
  through Early Saturday Morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Scattered Coastal Showers with brief heavy downpours along
  Portions of the Northeast Florida Coast

- Breezy onshore winds and dangerous rip current/surf conditions

Gusty northeasterly winds continue today, peaking in the afternoon
and evening, with gusts around 30-35 mph possible near the immediate
Atlantic coast and St. Johns river basin. Showers will move onshore
throughout the day and night, with highest coverage being St.
Augustine southward, east of I-95. Thunder chances are pretty low
today, but can`t rule out an isolated storm near the coast. Heavy
cloud cover and breezy winds will help keep temperatures below
normal, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast and
inland southeast Georgia, and mid 80s for inland northeast Florida.
Northerly steering flow overnight will drop temperatures into the
low to mid 60s inland, and upper 60s/low 70s near the coast and St,
Johns river basin. It will stay fairly breezy overnight, especially
near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Gusty North to Northeasterly Winds Will Maintain Marine and
Coastal Impacts on Friday and Saturday.

- Minor Coastal Flooding Likely Around Times of High Tide Along the
Atlantic Coast Beginning through Friday. Tidal Flooding Possible
within the St. Johns River Basin Beginning on Friday.

- Much Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected, Especially on Friday
and Saturday Nights as Winds Diminish at Inland Locations.

Cool dry air associated with high pressure to the north will
continue to press down over the forecast area bringing dry weather,
cooler temperatures, and clearing skies for Friday and Saturday.
Breezy northerly-northeasterly winds will continue into Friday and
then lessen on Saturday as the tightened pressure gradient begins to
lax and low pressure over the Atlantic moves northward. Risk of
tidal flooding will drop off by Saturday with the higher risk for
rip currents diminishing overnight Saturday. High temperatures for
the end of the week and into the beginning of the weekend  will be
in the upper 70s and lower 80s over inland areas with overnight low
temperatures dropping down into the mid 50s over southeast Georgia
and in the upper 50s and lower 60s for northeast Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Minor Tidal Flooding is Likely Around Times of High Tide within
the St. Johns River Basin through Early Next Week.

- Warming Trend Takes Shape Next Week, But an Unseasonably Dry Air
Mass Persists Across Our Region Sunday through Monday.

Initially dry weather conditions will be in place on Sunday with
chances for showers and storms gradually increasing through midweek
as high pressure ridging from out of the east adjusts the prevailing
flow to become more southerly, resulting in the drier air over the
region being gradually replaced by more moist maritime air from out
of the south by the latter part of the week. Temperatures will
experience a warning trend through the weekend and into the
beginning of next week, rising to be above the seasonal average by
the end of the period with max temps rising into the upper 80s and
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
MVFR ceilings will continue for most of the day at the TAF
sites, with GNV clearing up first around mid-day. Gusty
northeasterly winds will impact all the sites, with highest gusts of
25-30kts for the coastal sites. Isolated showers will more onshore
today, mainly impacting SGJ, but also CRG and JAX potentially. Winds
will remain elevated overnight, but calm slightly.

&&

.MARINE...

Low pressure will strengthen well to the northeast of the region
through the end of the week, tracking further to the north of the
area through the weekend. High pressure will build down the eastern
US coastal states Today pushing a backdoor cold front south of the
waters. The gradient between the high, and the front trailing from
the low to the northeast, will result in enhanced northeasterly
winds and waves lasting through at least Friday. A prolonged period
of Small Craft conditions will continue through at least Saturday.
There is also potential for occasional gusts to near Gale force
today into this evening. These conditions ease this weekend as high
pressure weakens and the aforementioned low pulls further away from
the area.

Rip Currents: There will be several days of strong and dangerous rip
currents with as elevated risk through the upcoming weekend.
Additionally, strong northeasterly winds will increase breakers to 5-
8 feet through Thursday afternoon, increasing the surf danger.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers will be possible for locations along and east of
the Interstate 95 corridor through around sunrise on Friday.
Otherwise, a drier air mass will gradually overspread our region
from Friday through the weekend. Minimum relative humidity values
will fall to around 30 percent on Friday afternoon for locations
north of Waycross in southeast Georgia, with these lower values then
expanding to inland locations throughout our region from Saturday
through Monday. Otherwise, gusty north-northeasterly surface and
transport winds will counter abundant low cloud cover and low mixing
heights today to create fair to good daytime dispersion values.
Surface speeds will remain sustained around 20-25 mph at coastal
locations through this evening, with frequent gusts of 30-35 mph
expected. These gusty conditions will continue overnight tonight for
locations east of I-95, creating elevated nighttime dispersion
values at coastal locations. Gusty northerly surface and transport
winds will continue on Friday area-wide, with decreasing cloud cover
and rising mixing heights yielding good daytime dispersion values.
Surface and transport winds will then shift to northeasterly on
Saturday, with breezy conditions persisting at coastal locations.
Fair to good daytime dispersion values are forecast area-wide.

Fog Potential...Significant fog formation is not expected during the
next several days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Astronomical tides will continue rising through the start of the
weekend due to the upcoming Full "Harvest" Moon that occurs on
Saturday. Very breezy north northeasterly onshore winds along
coastal locations will persist into Friday evening and combine with
these increasing astronomical tides to create minor coastal flooding
along the Atlantic coast and then into the St. Johns River This
evening through at least Saturday. Minor coastal flooding will be
possible along the Atlantic coast beginning with this evening`s high
tide, where water levels of 1.5 - 2 feet above Mean Higher High
Water (MHHW) are preliminarily forecast. Minor flooding will then
likely expand to the St. Johns River basin by Friday and will then
be possible around times of high tide through the weekend and
possibly into next week, as rising astronomical tides beyond the
date of the Full Moon result in a "trapped tide" situation, keeping
water levels elevated, generally at 1-2 feet above MHHW during each
tide cycle for most locations within the basin.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record low temperatures are possible at a few of our designated
climate sites in northeast and north central FL during the weekend:

Saturday, September 26:
KJAX: 55/1940
KGNV: 57/1975
KCRG: 59/1987

Sunday, September 27:
KJAX: 54/1940
KGNV: 53/1940
KCRG: 57/1982

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  80  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  64  79  60  79 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  65  80  57  81 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  70  79  65  80 /  30  20   0   0
GNV  66  83  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  68  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for FLZ124-
     125-138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Friday for FLZ124-125-138-225-233-325-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for GAZ154-
     166.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ154-166.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Friday for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ450-470.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ452-454-
     472-474.

&&

$$