827
FXUS62 KJAX 040005
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
705 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Through Wednesday. Minor Tidal Flooding
for St. Johns River Basin through Wednesday Night. High Rip Current
Risk for All Beaches Today, Northeast FL Beaches Wednesday. Small
Craft Advisories for Our Local Atlantic Waters through late tonight

- Isolated Afternoon TStorm Potential through Friday. Scattered
  showers today, especially inland areas

- Dense Morning Fog Potential Possible Wednesday through Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Main Highlights:

- Minor Tidal Flooding Continues Within the St. Johns River Basin.

- Rough surf and Dangerous Rip Currents Continue at the Northeast FL
Beaches through Wednesday.

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Late this Afternoon, Mainly for
Locations West of I-75.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts strong high pressure (1031
millibars) centered to the east of Cape Cod and north of Bermuda,
with this feature extending its axis southwestward across the
southeastern states. Meanwhile, coastal troughing remains situated
over our near shore Atlantic waters. Otherwise, a lengthy cold front
stretches from Lake Superior southward through the Upper Midwest,
the Ozarks, and eastern Texas. Aloft...troughing that was in place
over our area during the past few days has split into two cutoff
troughs, with one of these features near Bermuda and the other over
the far southeast Gulf. Ridging aloft now prevails over the
southeastern states, with this feature poised to deflect a potent
shortwave trough progressing across the southern Plains states
northeastward. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water
imagery indicates that an unseasonably moist air mass continues to
overspread our region from southeast to northwest, with PWATs now in
the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range throughout our area. Coastal troughing and
deepening southeasterly flow that drove showers onshore from the
Atlantic waters early this morning continue to progress inland, with
widely scattered activity now extending from around Crescent Lake
and Lake George in Putnam/Flagler Counties northwestward across the
Suwannee Valley and portions of inland southeast GA. Outside of rain
cooled locations, temperatures at 20Z were mostly in the upper 70s
and lower 80s, with dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s to the lower
70s.

Deepening southeasterly flow will pin the Gulf coast sea breeze near
or just west of Interstate 75 this afternoon, where a potential sea
breeze collision could develop an isolated thunderstorm or two,
mainly for locations near and west of Interstate 75. Showers or
isolated thunderstorms that develop  this afternoon should dissipate
or push west of the Suwannee and Alapaha Rivers around or shortly
after sunset. Mid and high altitude cloud cover may increase after
midnight from west to east, while deep southeasterly flow
potentially advects isolated showers onshore along the I-95 corridor
after midnight. Low stratus cloud cover is also expected to increase
at inland locations towards sunrise, with lows only falling to the
upper 60s inland and the lower 70s at coastal locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- High Risk for Rip Currents Continues at Area Beaches through Midweek.

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible at Inland Locations, Mostly on
Wednesday Afternoon and Evening.

- Areas of Dense Fog Possible Wednesday, Thursday and Friday
morning.


High pressure along the eastern seaboard will begin to push offshore
as a frontal boundary begins to push towards the eastern US due to
its parent Low over the Central Plains shifting towards the Great
Lakes. Easterly to southeasterly flow will be in place for much of
the area midweek as the high pressure begins to move offshore
towards the Atlantic. With the approaching frontal boundary, which
currently is likely to remain west of the area during the forecast
period, will bring a southwesterly shift in winds across inland
locations first, then the rest of the area by Thursday Night. Shower
and storm activity will be possible during the afternoon hours on
Wednesday and Thursday primarily along inland locations near the I-
75 corridor on Wednesday, with activity pushing further eastward on
Thursday as southwesterly flow becomes established along the western
locations of the area ahead of the front.

Daytime highs will reach into the low to mid 80s across inland
locations while the onshore flow will keep coastal locations a bit
cooler in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows will be around
the mid 60s inland and mid to upper 60s along the coast. The light
winds and low-level moisture could be enough to bring some fog
development during the early morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated Afternoon Thunderstorms Possible on Friday.

- Slightly Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected this Weekend.

- Strong Cold Front Possibly Approaches Our Area on Sunday Night.

As it`s parent Low continues to shift towards the NE US, the cold
front will begin to push into the area sometime on Friday Night and
push south of the area by Sunday Night. Currently scattered chances
of showers and isolated storms is forecast on Friday. After the
front`s passage, drier air filters into the area which will keep
conditions on the dry side for the upcoming weekend. Cooler
temperatures will begin to build into the area behind the front.
Daytime Highs in the 80s on Friday will cool into the lower 70s by
Monday. Overnight Lows in the upper 50s across SE GA and Suwannee
Valley on Friday will dip to the mid 40s by Monday, while lower 60s
across NE FL on Friday dip into the 50s by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
MVFR to possibly IFR conditions are expected to develop at VQQ
and GNV as low stratus and patchy fog develop in the predawn and
early morning hours. A brief period of MVFR ceilings will be
possible at JAX, CRG, SSI, and SGJ around sunrise, but confidence
remains too low to include in the TAFs at this time. All sites lift
to VFR by 13Z. Showers will be limited to GNV Wednesday
afternoon. Easterly winds will be less than 10 kts overnight and
then southeasterly winds around 10 kts prevail after 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...


Strong high pressure centered off the mid-Atlantic coast will shift
further eastward tonight as a coastal trough remains situated over
near shore waters. Breezy onshore winds will maintain elevated seas
through tonight, with Small Craft Advisory conditions prevailing
offshore northeast Florida waters. Another round of showers may
develop overnight tonight across our local waters. Small Craft
Advisory conditions diminishing to Caution levels by Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a cold front will move into the southeastern states on
Wednesday night before slowing its forward progress late this week.
Southeasterly winds on Thursday will shift to southerly overnight
and then southwesterly on Friday ahead of this front, followed by
prevailing northwest to northerly winds this weekend in the wake of
the frontal passage. A reinforcing cold front will then cross our
local waters on Sunday night and Monday morning, with high pressure
building over the lower Mississippi Valley providing a surge of
breezy northwesterly winds in the wake of this frontal passage.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

Dangerous surf zone conditions will continue at the northeast FL
beaches through Wednesday, where a high rip current risk is
forecast, as breakers of 4 to 6 feet this afternoon diminish to the
3-5 foot range on Wednesday. A higher end moderate risk is forecast
at the southeast GA beaches on Wednesday, where breakers of 2 to 4
feet are expected. A lingering easterly ocean swell will likely
yield a moderate risk at all area beaches on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Onshore easterly-southeasterly winds remain heading into midweek. An
approaching cold front from the west will bring a shift to
southwesterly winds during the back half of the week. Fair to Good
daytime dispersions midweek will begin to worsen as winds weaken,
becoming Poor to Fair by Thursday and Friday. There will continue to
be scattered chances of showers and isolated storms over the next
couple of days ahead of the cold front. Drier weather is expected
behind the front over the upcoming weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog
formation are possible for inland locations along and north of the I-
10 corridor. Areas to widespread fog will be possible during the
predawn and early morning hours on Thursday and Friday across our
area.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Due to the persistent onshore wind, tidal levels within the St
Johns River basin and it`s tributaries have remained steady,
reaching minor flood levels at high tide over the last 24 hours.
Recent peak water levels in this area have been roughly 1.55 to 1.9
feet MHHW. Minor flooding will likely continue into Wednesday as
onshore flow decreases into Thursday allowing water to drain into
the Atlantic. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the
entire middle and lower St Johns River zones. One caveat is that the
recent heavy rainfall over central FL may allow elevated water
levels to linger in the St Johns river basin late this week as it
drains northward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  84  67  84 /   0  20  40  30
SSI  71  78  67  79 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  68  83  66  84 /   0  10  10  20
SGJ  72  81  68  82 /  10   0  10  10
GNV  69  86  67  86 /   0  30  20  30
OCF  69  86  68  86 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for FLZ038-125-
     132-137-225-325-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late Wednesday night for FLZ124-
     125-138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 4 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ472-474.

&&

$$