305
FXUS62 KJAX 101759
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
Issued by National Weather Service Key West FL
1259 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Mostly clear skies with freshening westerly breezes are expected
  tonight.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions for the Area Waters tonight

- Light Freeze & Widespread Frost at Inland Locations on Thurs
  Night. Freeze Watches are currently posted for these locations.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Afternoon surface analysis places an expansive area of high
pressure centered directly overhead northern Florida and southern
Georgia. After some morning fog, low-level weak boundary layer
mixing has supported clearing skies over the area. Available local
Doppler radar is not detecting any meteorological echoes.
Temperatures are generally in the Temperatures range from the
lower to mid 50s in our inland counties, to the near 60 along the
modestly warmed coastal counties. Overnight, high pressure will
continue to slowly slide eastward, supporting freshening
westerly breezes, but continued dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Another area of high pressure will build across the Gulf Coast,
then once again slide directly on top of the Jacksonville area by
late Thursday night or early Friday. Dry conditions will continue
for this period. As winds collapse, a round of radiational
cooling may support a window for frost or freeze potential late
Thursday night through early Friday, which we will closely
monitor. As the high slides offshore, southwesterly return flow
and weak warm advection will support moderating temperatures for
Friday Night, and thus the frost and freeze potential will erode.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

North Florida and South Georgia will be in a COL region by
Saturday, with light winds, moderating temperatures, and low rain
chances expected through at least Saturday night. Ensemble
numerical weather prediction guidance is in great agreement that
the persistent upper- level pattern of shortwave troughs pivoting
around a stagnant polar vortex parked over southern Canada north
of the Great Lakes will continue through next week. Closer to
home, this will drive another cold front through the area late
Sunday or Sunday night. Current meteorological reasoning suggests
this frontal passage will largely be dry, with upper-level forcing
for ascent displaced well to the north, and limited moisture to
work with.

In the wake of the front, winds will clock around to the north and
freshen, supporting another round of December cold advection for
the Jacksonville area. Temperatures will slowly moderate
throughout the week, as high pressure building in the wake of the
front slides eastward, eventually into the western North Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Satellite and surface observations continue to highlight IFR CIGS at
GNV, and MVFR CIGS at VQQ and CRG. NBM probabilistic guidance
suggests VFR at the remaining terminals by mid to late afternoon (19-
21Z). The 15 knots of southwesterly wind shear based at 030-040
continues to erode as westerlies return to the SFC. The one outlier
is SGJ, with a east of north wind as the emaciated sea breeze
lingers through 21Z. We added an overnight line for all terminals as
westerly breezes increase a couple knots and high clouds invade
ahead of the next upper level disturbance.

&&

.MARINE...

Westerly breezes will freshen over the area marine zones later this
evening, then continue through Thursday morning. High pressure
developing over the Gulf will build into the area tomorrow into
Friday and then shift offshore by early Saturday ahead of the next
cold frontal passage. Strong high pressure building to the north of
our region in the wake of this front will support fresh to strong
northerly breezes Sunday night, slowly veering to the northeast on
Monday.

Rip Currents: Primarily moderate risk across the area waters
through Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Westerly breezes will freshen tonight, with dispersion indices
also increasing in response. Minimum relative humidity values in
the afternoon hours will drip below 40% at times across
southeastern Georgia and northeastern Florida, but will recover
nicely in the overnight hours, largely in part due to the light to
gentle breezes supporting good radiational cooling events.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  39  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  63  44  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  66  42  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  67  46  62  42 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  67  44  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  68  45  65  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
     FLZ021-023-024-030-031-120-136-220-322-422-522.

GA...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST
     Thursday for AMZ450-452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
 Thursday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$