556
FXUS62 KJAX 031750
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
150 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Flash flood risk continues for locations near and north of the
Interstate 10 corridor into this evening as several low level
boundaries converge over a very moist and diurnally unstable
airmass near a lingering front. Gulf Coast convection will
continue to progress steadily eastward across NE FL where it will
encounter river and east coast coast sea breezes generally 1 pm -
5 pm, with resultant convection pressing offshore early this
evening.

Stratus hanging over southeast GA late this morning north of the
frontal boundary is still expected to lift with the low level cap/
inversion lifting after 18z with PVA from the WSW with an
approaching weak short wave trough. This will transition the
convective focus from NE FL this afternoon toward SE GA into the
late afternoon and evening, where widespread rainfall and numerous
storms are expected to break out along converging boundaries.

Weak storm motion of near 5 kts in the 1000-500 mb layer combined
with PWAT over the 90th percentile for this date will bring
widespread, locally flooding rainfall to many locations of
southeast Georgia and portions of NE Florida near and north of the
I-10 corridor. In addition to the flooding rainfall threat, deep
updrafts pulsing upward with cell mergers will have a localized
wet downburst risk. Convection will gradually weaken in intensity
across southeast Georgia as diurnal instability wanes through
tonight although showers and isolated storms will be possible
through the night as the frontal zone lifts northward toward
daybreak Monday near the Altamaha River basin. South of the
boundary, SSW steering flow will bring a < 20% chance of showers
to locations west of I-75 across the Suwannee River Valley with
inland fog and low stratus potential for those near the I-10
corridor northward across southeast GA.

Low temperatures will continue to trend near to above normal in
the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

A stalled frontal boundary will remain draped across the FL/GA
state border Monday and Tuesday continuing the wet and unsettled
pattern. Southwest steering flow and deep tropical airmass (PWATs
2-2.3 in) situated over the region will support waves of numerous
to widespread showers and storms capable of producing heavy
downpours. Stronger storms will be mainly focused along the
frontal boundary and sea breeze interactions along the I-95
corridor. The main hazards will be localized flash flooding
especially over areas that received significant rainfall this past
weekend and urban/poor drainage areas. Another Flood Watch may be
needed mainly for areas along and north of the I-10 corridor. A
north-south temperature gradient will develop with the front
dividing the area with highs ranging from the mid/upper 80s along
the Altamaha river basin to the mid 90s in north-central FL.
Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Frontal boundary over the area will gradually weaken and diffuse
through the week as high pressure wedges down the eastern
seaboard. Numerous showers and storms still expected every
afternoon and evening with stronger storms focused near the
frontal boundary, as well as the sea breeze and outflow interactions.
Building easterly flow will focus stronger storms closer to the
I-75 corridor toward the end of the week. Saturated soils from the
recent multiday rainfall events will make it easier for areas to
flood and trees to uproot. Temperatures will be around seasonable
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Strong storms currently impacting JAX and CRG with wind gusts measured
near 42 kts at JAX and included this trend for CRG with IFR restrictions
due to heavy TSRA. TS will approach SGJ and GNV within the hour
were TEMPO TS was included. TSRA will linger through 20-22z
across NE FL terminals, then the focus will be more toward SSI
this evening. Continued with TEMPO TS at SSI with the peak of
activity between 20-24z. Convection fades across NE FL by 04z with
VCSH at SSI through the night. Low level winds become light and
variable to calm inland tonight with SSE at the coast early this
evening becoming SSW toward daybreak with landbreeze. Low stratus
and mist/BR potential again after 06z through 13z Monday at SSI,
GNV, VQQ, JAX and CRG.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

A stalled front will linger across the local coastal waters today
and Monday with waves of showers and thunderstorms. The front will
gradually shift southward Tuesday into Wednesday with high pressure
north of the region and a coastal trough forming offshore of the
Florida coast. This pattern will bring prevailing onshore flow and
elevated combined seas. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring
a couple areas of potential tropical cyclone develop across the
western Atlantic this week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today and Monday. Elevated rip current
risk continues this week with prevailing easterly flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Flood Watch remains in effect through midnight tonight for SE GA
and NE FL counties along and north of the I-10 corridor. Localized
flash flooding will be possible with the multiple rounds of
rainfall moving across saturated soils. Moist airmass and
additional lift from the front will continue the 2-3 inch rain
rate that we observed yesterday. Another Flood Watch will likely
be needed for Monday afternoon into night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  87  72  91 /  80  90  40  80
SSI  77  87  78  90 /  80  60  60  70
JAX  74  92  75  93 /  60  90  40  80
SGJ  76  92  77  92 /  40  80  40  70
GNV  74  94  74  94 /  20  60  30  80
OCF  74  93  75  93 /  10  70  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ023-024-120-124-
     125-220-225-322-325-425.

GA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$