Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
919 FXUS62 KJAX 072234 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 634 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Smoke from distant wildfires may lower visibilities and reduce air quality - Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms Friday Afternoon through Monday && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Main Highlights This Period: - Smoke from a wildfire over Lafayette county FL will provide smokey conditions across portions of NE FL Tonight Surface cold front will slowly move south across the area Tonight. The front will still be lingering over NE FL at dawn Friday. While the best chance for showers has ended, a few spotty showers can not be ruled out along the frontal convergence zone. Lows will vary widely from north to south due to the frontal position. Smoke from a wildfire over Lafayette county FL will continue to provide smoke to the northeast of the fire, reaching as far northeast as Duval county. Once the front passes through the winds will push the plume more toward the east of the fire late Tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Isolated Shower/T`storm Chances Friday, More Numerous Saturday The frontal boundary is expected to stall just south of the region on Friday, which will bring more of an onshore northeasterly flow as well as some drier air in the low levels across southeast GA as weak high pressure builds in from the north. Most of the area will have low chances of any showers and t`storms just behind the front, with the greatest potential being areas furthest south during the afternoon and evening hours as the sea breeze boundary pushes inland. Elsewhere, only slightly drier and cooler behind the boundary with plenty of mid and high clouds expected. Temps will be mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s north of about I-10, with upper 80s to low 90s south despite some of the higher cloud cover. Mid level flow above the boundary becomes more active late Friday Night and throughout Saturday/Saturday Night, which will result in periods of more numerous showers and some isolated embedded t`storms during this time frame. Guidance suggests that more numerous activity could begin as early as late Friday Night over inland GA, with these "waves" of rainfall and embedded convection spreading further southward into Saturday as well. Highest coverage as well as QPF amounts look to be across southeast GA where the more favorable upper support will be, which could reach as high as 0.5-1.0" in some areas during the Friday Night - Saturday Night time frame. This will trend closer to the 0.25-0.5 range for most of northeast FL. High temps Saturday will be similarly in the low to mid 80s north and upper 80s to low 90s south. Lows will be mainly in the 60s to low 70s both Friday and Saturday Night. Most of the rainfall will be beneficial to the ongoing drought situation, although with some more heating expected during the afternoon hours across NE FL on Saturday, a few storms may become strong with gusty winds and small hail possible. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Unsettled Weather Continues Sunday and Monday - Drier Conditions Look to Return Tuesday through Thursday Frontal boundary will meander near the region on Sunday through early next week, persisting periods of showers and isolated t`storms before a stronger boundary with more significant upper level support looks to dive southeastward Monday. This could return higher potential for strong to severe t`storms Monday, but also have enough momentum for this boundary to push well south of the area for Tuesday and into mid week. Drier and "cooler" conditions relative to the time of year are expected on Tuesday, before a return to more seasonable temps well into the 80s as drier weather continues into Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... A cold front will slowly move south across the area Tonight. A plume of smoke from a distant fire could cause visibility restrictions at Jacksonville area TAF sites. Once the front passes through the smoke plume will move away from area TAF sites. A band of stratus with restrictions is anticipated to accompany the front. A few spotty showers will be possible as the front passes through. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon over GNV. && .MARINE... A cold front will slide south across the area Tonight. The front will stall over NE FL through the weekend. A cold front will move southeast across the area early next week. A high pressure ridge will build to the north Tuesday, then to the northeast mid week. Rip Currents: Moderate through Saturday && .FIRE WEATHER... - High Dispersions Area-Wide This Afternoon - High Dispersions Over Northeast Fl Saturday And Sunday A cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening to mainly northern portions of the area, and isolated strong to severe storms will be possible with wind gusts up to 40-60 mph. Hot and dry conditions are expected for portions of northeast and north central Florida out ahead of the front this afternoon and evening with breezy winds and low relative humidity down as low as 30 percent possible for areas generally east of HWY 301. The sea breeze is expected to remained pinned near the Atlantic coast, and therefore significant wind shifts are not expected, except in/near showers and t`storms. Breezy transport winds and high mixing heights will lead to areas of high dispersions as well. This front will drop southward through tonight then stall over northeast FL, providing continued showers and thunderstorm chances through the weekend. Another cold front will move through on Monday, bringing another round of showers and storms. High pressure will build toward the middle of next week ushering in a period of drier weather. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog is possible late tonight, mainly across the I-75 corridor and Suwannee Valley of inland North FL. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any expected thunderstorms near or north of about I-10. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 62 81 63 82 / 20 0 40 80 SSI 69 78 67 81 / 20 0 40 90 JAX 71 85 67 86 / 20 10 40 80 SGJ 73 83 70 88 / 20 20 30 70 GNV 72 90 69 90 / 20 40 20 40 OCF 72 90 70 91 / 20 50 20 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$