305
FXUS62 KJAX 051047
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
547 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Localized Dense Fog this Morning and Friday AM

- Isolated Thunderstorms this Afternoon between I-75 and US-301
  in. Additional Isolated Afternoon Thunderstorm Potential
  Friday

- Minor Tidal Flooding within Portions of the St. Johns River Basin

- Moderate Rip Current Risk through the Weekend

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

A few batches of scattered, light showers will continue to drift
northeastward this morning in advance of stalled front located well
to the west. The associated, and mostly VFR, ceilings with the
activity has limited low stratus and fog development at local TAF
sites this morning. Warm, humid and modestly unstable conditions
this afternoon will lead to another potential region of isolated
thunderstorms generally along the Gulf sea breeze. Less activity is
expected along the Atlantic sea breeze as it pushes inland this
afternoon. The primary corridor of isolated convection will be along
the I-75, which may result in impacts at KGNV between 20z-23z. As
the residual showers drift northeastward they may reach the Jax
Metro terminals late in the evening (after 03z). Due to the linger
showers and cloud cover during most of the night, fog formation will
be limited. However, if skies clear there could be a window from
around 09-13z where low stratus and fog may quickly form.

&&

.MARINE...

An advancing cold front entering the southeastern states will slow
its forward speed, with prevailing winds shifting to become more
southerly today and then southwesterly on Friday and Friday night.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may impact the waters
on Friday afternoon and evening ahead of this approaching front,
which will cross our local waters before sunrise on Saturday. Winds
will shift to northwesterly with increasing speeds after midnight on
Friday night, followed by winds shifting to northerly and then
northeasterly in the wake of this frontal passage on Saturday
afternoon and evening. High pressure will gradually build into the
southeastern states on Sunday and Monday, creating breezy
northeasterly winds and gradually building seas across our local
waters.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

Onshore winds will weaken on today and shift offshore by
Friday. However, a lingering easterly ocean swell will still
yield a moderate risk at all area beaches from today and
through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Low Dispersions Across Northeast Fl Today

Weak southerly transport winds this afternoon will lead to low smoke
dispersions across NE FL. Winds will shift southwesterly through
Friday ahead of slow-moving and mostly dry cold front, which will
push across Friday night, ushering in a drier and cooler airmass
over the weekend and into early next week. Critically low humidity
is not expected behind the front but a multi-day period of northerly
light surface and transport winds will develop.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas to widespread fog
will be possible during the predawn and early morning hours today
and again tomorrow (Friday) across the area.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels within most of the St. Johns River basin continue to
gradually decline with each successive high tide cycle, with gauges
now reporting peak levels mostly in the action stage (below minor
flooding) from around Racy Point northward.

Flood Advisory continues in portions of the river south of Racy
Point where tides continue to reach 1.5 to 2 feet above normally dry
ground during times of high tide (minor flooding). Recent heavy
rainfall over central FL may allow elevated water levels to linger
for locations along the St. Johns River and its tributaries near
Lake George and Crescent Lake during the next several days as the
floodwater drains northward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  67  81  55 /  10  10  30   0
SSI  79  67  81  59 /  10   0  40  10
JAX  85  67  85  61 /  10   0  30  10
SGJ  82  68  83  64 /   0   0  20  10
GNV  86  68  85  63 /  20  20  20   0
OCF  86  68  85  65 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for FLZ038-137.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$