693
FXUS62 KJAX 151340
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
840 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Localized Dense Fog this morning for Suwannee Valley and areas

- Patchy, Dense Fog Possible Sunday Morning

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Next Week. Severe to Extreme Drought over Inland Southeast GA and the Northern. Likely to Expand in Coverage Next Week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Fog which developed overnight primarily inland long/north of I-10
has lifted at this hour and a generally sunny day is expected for
our start to the weekend. A few high thin clouds may pass through
SE GA this afternoon, but dry conditions under weak high pressure
and rising 500mb heights over the area should help boost highs a
few more degrees compared to Friday nearing 80 degrees over inland
NE FL, upper 70s over inland SE GA, and mid 70s along the coast.

Tonight, high pressure will sink southward along the FL peninsula
and clockwise flow will bring west to southwest winds overnight,
elevating slightly from around 5 mph to 8-12 mph after midnight as
a cold front begins to approach the area from the north. Lows will
be near normal around 50F inland and the mid 50s at the coast.
The southwesterly flow and clear skies will help develop a mixture
of radiational and advection areas of fog well after midnight,
though increasing winds will help keep fog from becoming dense.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)...

The main weather concern today will be the fog formation over the
next few hours as a surface ridge slides overhead. Before midnight,
shallow radiation fog had already begun to materialize. While
widespread dense fog isn`t anticipated broad areas of dense fog and
limited visibility will be possible across NE FL and portions of SE
GA this morning. Given the dry conditions, there has been an
increase in small brush fires in the area. Near these fires,
enhanced fog potential and possible a very dense "superfog"
formation is possible this morning. This may require targeted Dense
Fog Advisories if development occurs in the vicinity of any
reported brush fires.

Calm and very light near-surface winds will allow fog to stay intact
longer this morning. All fog should lift by 9 AM. After the fog
lifts, sunny skies will warm temps into the upper 70s this
afternoon.

Little change in the regional pattern, though there will be an
increasing southwesterly flow late tonight which may act to advect
Gulf moisture into the Suwannee Valley and spread east toward
Jacksonville overnight. This may lead to an advective fog event,
with a chance of locally dense fog again early Sunday morning as
temperatures fall to the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday and Monday)

Sunday will be another warm day with breezy westerly winds ahead
of an incoming weak, dry cold front from the north, with highs in
the upper 70s. The front will stall over the area for most of
Sunday night, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 40s
north of Waycross and near 60 on the northeast Florida coast.
Patchy fog will be possible mainly over north central Florida
early Monday morning, but the frontal position will play into that
as well. Monday will be a few degrees cooler than the rest of the
week area-wide with calmer winds after the front passes through.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)

High pressure will build overhead Tuesday and Wednesday following
the frontal passage early in the week leaving calm winds, clear
skies, and above normal temperatures. Southeast winds will
increase Thursday and Friday, bringing in some more moisture and
clouds. High temperatures each day will be in the mid 70s to low
80s, generally cooler near the Atlantic coast. With no
precipitation in the forecast at this time, expect drought
conditions to persist, if not worsen. However, looking ahead just
past this period, a stronger front may bring some showers Friday
night into next weekend, but there remains a lot of uncertainty
for day 8.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

The 12Z TAF period begins with areas of MVFR/IFR fog/ceilings at
inland portions of Northeast FL and Southeast GA locally down to
LIFR levels at VQQ through 13Z. The fog and low ceilings will lift
by 14Z and VFR conditions will prevail for most of the period
under sunny skies with perhaps a few high thin clouds at times as
weakening high pressure remains over the region. Winds will be near
calm through 14Z, then light and variable through late morning to
midday before increasing to around 5 knots from the west with weak
seabreeze turning winds southerly at the coastal sites late this
afternoon/early evening, then resuming west to southwest increasing
overnight 5-8 knots as the high pressure settles south of the
area. Inland patchy MVFR fog will develop late tonight at GNV
after 09Z where winds will stay under 5 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure pattern will hold through today with
offshore winds increasing between the high and an approaching cold
front that weaken considerably as it approaches and likely stalls
across the waters early next week. Light winds and fair maritime
conditions continue through Thursday under the influence of high
pressure. Onshore flow with a backdoor cold front will commence
Thursday with a coastal trough developing Friday as winds begin to
shift southerly ahead of an approaching cold front.

RIP CURRENTS: Low surf and light winds will lead to a low rip
current risk through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions continue today, especially for inland southeast
Georgia where minRH will fall to 25-30%. Moisture will improve RH
Sunday briefly as a front approaches, but higher transport winds
will result in areas of high dispersion on Sunday for inland
locations. Critically low minRH values return north of I-10 on
Monday for inland locations with calmer winds than Sunday keeping
dispersion good. Moisture will gradually improve through the week
keeping minRH above concerning values, although no precipitation is
in the forecast this week, likely further worsening drought
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  78  50  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  74  55  77  57 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  79  52  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  77  54  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  80  51  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  79  51  78  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$