508
FXUS62 KJAX 021735
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1235 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Isolated T-Storms & Beneficial Rainfall Saturday and Saturday
  Night. A few strong/severe storms possible SE GA to the I-10
  corridor in the afternoon and evening.

- Small Craft Advisory for the Offshore Waters Saturday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Low temperatures tonight will be above normal, staying in the upper
40s to lower 50s. Showers and increased cloud cover will begin to
enter southeast Georgia just after midnight, with thunderstorms not
expected overnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Big changes occur this period as an area of low pressure
around 1007 mb swings through the deep south on Saturday, with
breezy southwest flow sustained up to 15-20 mph and increasing
chances of showers with embedded thunderstorms develop from the west
to the east over the forecast area. With a fairly vigorous shortwave
trough moving quickly west to east on Saturday into Saturday night,
there is some concern for a few strong to severe storms mainly
across the north half of zones with mean sfc based CAPE of about 500-
700 J/kg and deep layer shear of 40-50 kt. Latest HRRR suggests some
CAPE of 700-1000 J/kg possible over inland southeast GA. The SPC has
highlighted a marginal risk of severe storms over southeast GA and
part of the Suwannee Valley area. This threat of severe may peak
around the 4pm to 8 pm time frame. The surface low pressure system
expected to move offshore mid evening, with the trailing cold front
shifting southeast Saturday night across the area. Thus, expect
showers and any isolated storms will come to an end Saturday night
as the front sweeps southeast. Given fairly light winds late
Saturday night and abundant low level moisture, there may be some
low clouds and patchy fog that develop overnight mainly outside of
any shower activity.

Sunday, the cold front will be across north central FL at sunrise
and will push south of the area with weak surface high pressure
building in. Clearing skies anticipated Sunday into Sunday night,
though some high clouds expected at times, with fairly light
northerly sfc winds.

For temperatures, warming temps on Saturday ahead of the front mostly
in the 70s, cooling down into the 40s and 50s Saturday night, and
highs on Sunday in the 60s. Cooling off to the 40s Sunday night so
no freeze anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Surface high pressure system centered over the DELMARVA area will
push eastward Monday to Thursday, with a mid level ridge building
into the region from the west. This will result in a mostly dry
weather period and moderating temperatures. There is some low
potential for a few showers by the end of the period over southeast
GA as the influence of high pressure over the region diminishes
ahead of a cold front pressing in from out of the northwest.
Temperatures will drop following the frontal passage, with daily
high temps and overnight min temps rising to be above the seasonal
average by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, with a low chance
of MVFR ceilings at GNV Saturday morning (not included in TAF at
this time). Southwest winds will increase Saturday afternoon
ahead of an incoming front, with rain and storm chances
beginning for the TAF sites just after 18Z Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...

Weak low pressure will develop over the lower Mississippi
Valley today and shifts eastward across the southeastern states
on Saturday, moving offshore on Saturday night. This storm
system will bring showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to
our area on Saturday and Saturday night, along with Small Craft
Advisory conditions for the offshore waters. Breezy northerly
winds are forecast in the wake of this system on Sunday and
Sunday night. Winds will shift to north-northeasterly by Monday
as high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic states.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Today and Saturday
              NE FL Moderate Today and Saturday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A low pressure system and a cold front will bring a wetting
rainfall to the area Saturday ending late Saturday night. Breezy
southwest winds will elevate dispersion indices Saturday
afternoon. Dry conditions return Sunday into next week after the
frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  69  46  63 /  30  90  50   0
SSI  53  71  49  60 /  20  80  80   0
JAX  51  76  50  64 /   0  70  60   0
SGJ  52  76  54  63 /   0  60  70   0
GNV  52  76  55  70 /   0  70  60   0
OCF  52  75  56  70 /   0  50  70   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$