168
FXUS62 KJAX 301826
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
126 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Widespread Freeze Expected Tonight and Early Wednesday
  Morning. Freeze Warning Tonight and Early Wednesday Morning
  for Southeast GA, Inland Northeast and North Central FL. Light
  Freeze with Widespread Frost Potential at Inland Locations on
  Wednesday Night.

- Wind Chill Values Fall to 20-25 Degrees Area-Wide Early on
  Wednesday Morning. Cold Weather Advisories Issued Overnight
  through Early Wednesday Morning for All of Northeast and North
  Central FL.

- Elevated Wildfire Danger at Inland Locations on Wednesday
  Afternoon.

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Continues at the Northeast FL
  Beaches.

- Isolated Thunderstorms with Beneficial Rainfall Expected on
  Saturday and Saturday Night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Afternoon surface analysis depicts Arctic high pressure (1036
millibars) centered near the Arklatex region that was building
eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. This feature has
pushed the strong cold front that moved across our area
yesterday southward all the way to Mexico` Yucatan peninsula,
Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas. Aloft...deep troughing
prevails over the eastern two-thirds of the nation, with the
base of this longwave trough progressing eastward across the
Deep South. A 165-knot jet streak at 250 millibars (about 35,000
feet) located east of the Delmarva peninsula was generating a
shield of high altitude cloud cover across our area, with the
back edge of this cloud shield now progressing southeastward
towards upper portions of the Altamaha and Ocmulgee Rivers in
southeast GA. Cloud cover and cold air advection on the heels of
a chilly west-northwesterly breeze was keeping temperatures
mostly in the 40s as of 18Z, while dewpoints ranged from the
upper teens across portions of inland southeast GA and the
northern Suwannee Valley to the 20s elsewhere.

The base of deep troughing will pivot eastward across our area
this evening, pushing the aforementioned jet streak
northeastward to a position well east of coastal New England.
This will allow for the high altitude cloud shield to exit our
area this late this afternoon from northwest to southeast , with
clearing skies expected early this evening. Meanwhile, surface
ridging building into the lower Mississippi Valley this
afternoon will begin to gradually weaken tonight as it expands
eastward along the northern Gulf coast. This will allow our
local pressure gradient to gradually loosen, but enough of a
gradient will exist to keep winds in the 4-8 mph range at most
locations. These winds will likely limit widespread frost
formation, but will drive wind chill values down to the 20-25
degree range at most locations by sunrise on Wednesday. A Cold
Weather Advisory has thus been issued for all of northeast and
north central FL, where lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s,
combined with sustained wind speeds of 5-10 mph, should drive
wind chill values to below thresholds (25 degree wind chill
values) overnight and early Wednesday morning.

A widespread light freeze is expected by early Wednesday morning
for all but coastal northeast FL and urban areas in Duval
County, and Freeze Warnings have thus been issued for all inland
locations in northeast and north central FL as well as coastal
southeast GA and coastal Nassau County. A few wind sheltered
locations in the Suwannee Valley and inland portions of
northeast FL and southeast GA could experience a brief hard
freeze, where lows will possibly fall to the mid 20s early on
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Another chilly and dry day is forecast Wednesday, with high
temperatures staying in the lower to mid 50s area-wide despite
clear skies. Low temperatures will dip into the 30s for most of
the area, with a few locations along the St. Johns river and
immediate northeast Florida coast staying near 40 degrees. A
light freeze is likely for much of inland southeast Georgia and
the Suwannee valley area, with inland formation likely as well
due to light winds. Around midnight for fireworks time,
temperatures will be generally in the upper 30s to low 40s with
clear skies.

Temperatures will warm up about 5-10 degrees on Thursday as high
pressure over the Gulf builds towards the Florida peninsula.
Lows Thursday night will remain above freezing, but still cold
in the mid to upper 30s inland and low 40s near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

High pressure continues to shift eastward over the Florida
peninsula as a front approaches the area from the northwest.
Friday will remain dry with high temperatures in the 60s as
cloud cover increases. After sunset Friday, showers will begin
to move into southeast Georgia, spreading southward through the
night. By daybreak Saturday, high rain chances will be present
north of I-10 with activity continuing to move southward and
clear of the land area by Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible during the day on Saturday area-wide, overall
rainfall totals are about 0.15-0.5 inches. Temperatures this
weekend will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s with lows in the 40s
to 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. High
cloud cover this afternoon will shift south of our region
towards sunset this evening. West-northwesterly surface winds
sustained around 10 knots will diminish to 5-10 knots towards
00Z, with speeds then increasing back to around 10 knots by 15Z
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong high pressure building eastward from Texas will slowly
weaken as it pushes eastward across the Gulf on Wednesday
night and Thursday, becoming centered over south Florida by
Friday. Gusty northwesterly winds tonight and early Wednesday
morning will keep Caution conditions, featuring wind speeds of
15-20 knots, in place across most of our local waters through
Thursday. Winds will then shift to southwesterly while briefly
diminishing on Friday afternoon and evening. Weak low pressure
developing over the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday will
shift eastward across the southeastern states on Saturday,
moving offshore on Saturday night. This storm system will bring
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to our area on Saturday
and Saturday night, along with Small Craft Advisory conditions
for the offshore waters. Breezy northerly winds are forecast in
the wake of this storm system on Sunday and Sunday night.

Rip Currents: Southeast GA Beaches: Moderate this Afternoon, Low
              on Wednesday
              Northeast FL Beaches: Moderate through Wednesday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

West-northwesterly winds continue through midweek, bringing
cooler and drier air into the region. The dry air will bring Min
RH values into the 20s area-wide Today and Wednesday. The driest
air will be found over inland southeast Georgia with RH values
in the lower 20s, while northeast Florida will have RH values in
the mid to upper 20s. A light breeze continues today but is
anticipated to remain just below Elevated Fire Danger Criteria.
Fair to good dispersions this afternoon continue through
midweek. Low-level moisture gradually increases through the week
as a front moves through the area on Saturday. More substantial
rain is expected with this frontal passage compared to the
previous front.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Widespread frost and freeze over
inland locations Tonight. Isolated thunderstorms possible Friday
night into Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  28  54  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  32  55  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  29  56  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  34  57  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  29  57  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  29  58  33  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for
     FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
     140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-
     433-522-533-633.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-
     024-030-031-035-038-120-124-132-136-137-140-220-225-232-
     236-237-240-322-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-
     149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$