061
FXUS62 KJAX 020558
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1258 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Patchy to Areas of Frost this morning along and north of I-10.
- Patchy/Areas Fog this morning along I-75 south of
  Gainesville.
- Isolated TStorms & Beneficial Rainfall Saturday and Saturday
  Night. A Few Strong/Severe Storms Possible Inland SE GA
- Small Craft Advisory offshore waters Saturday morning through
  Sunday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Mostly clear skies under only very thin high cirrus clouds amid
light west northwest flow above the surface has allowed our temps to
fall into the upper 30s inland to the low 40s along and east of
the St Johns river to the coast early this morning. Some patchy
to areas frost will continue to form inland along and north of
I-10 while some low level moisture along the Gulf coast will
help develop patchy to areas of fog along and west of I-75
including Gainesville area where variable visibility could drop
below 2-3 miles at times. Early morning fog will lift by mid
morning with temperatures warming quickly after sunrise to the
50s.

Today, mid/upper level troughing will lift away from the southeast
and become zonal downstream of a shortwave impulse emerging from the
southern Rockies into the southern plains. High pressure at the
surface will stretch over southern FL and winds will be west
southwesterly 8-12 mph with gusts to 15-20 mph. A warm front will
lift northward from the Gulf coast to the TN valley with showers
developing and spreading across the deep south. Jet streak crossing
the Gulf coast will bring increasing mid and high level clouds from
the west in the afternoon. Weak warm air advection will bump up
highs a little above normal into the mid/upper 60s over SE GA and
upper 60s over NE FL to around 70F over north central FL.

Tonight, winds will become more southerly with initially mostly clear
skies before midnight, then trending mostly cloudy as low and mid
level clouds increase after midnight with showers moving into NW
portions of SE GA northwest of Alma in the pre dawn early morning
hours. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Big changes occur this period as an area of low pressure around
1007 mb swings through the deep south on Saturday, with breezy
southwest flow sustained up to 15-20 mph and increasing chances
of showers with embedded thunderstorms develop from the west to
the east over the forecast area. With a fairly vigorous shortwave
trough moving quickly west to east on Saturday into Saturday
night, there is some concern for a few strong to severe storms
mainly north of about I-10 with mean sfc based CAPE of about
500-700 J/kg and deep layer shear of 40-50 kt. Latest HRRR
soundings suggests MCLAPE CAPE of 700-1000 J/kg over inland
southeast GA. The SPC has highlighted a marginal risk of severe
storms over southeast GA and part of the Suwannee Valley area.
This threat of severe may peak around the 4pm to 8pm time frame.
The surface low pressure system expected to move offshore mid
evening, with the trailing cold front shifting southeast
Saturday night across the area. Thus, expect showers and any
isolated storms will come to an end Saturday night as the front
sweeps southeast. Given fairly light winds late Saturday night
and abundant low level moisture, there may be some low clouds
and patchy fog that develop overnight mainly outside of any
shower activity.

Sunday, the cold front will be across north central FL at sunrise
and will push south of the area with weak surface high pressure
building in. Clearing skies anticipated Sunday into Sunday night,
though some high clouds expected at times, with fairly light
northerly sfc winds.

For temperatures, warming temps on Saturday ahead of the front mostly
in the 70s, cooling down into the 40s and 50s Saturday night, and
highs on Sunday in the 60s. Cooling off to the 40s Sunday night so
no freeze anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Surface high pressure system centered over the DELMARVA area will
push eastward Monday to Thursday, with a mid level ridge building
into the region from the west. This will result in a mostly dry
weather period and moderating temperatures. There is some low
potential for a few showers by the end of the period over southeast
GA as the influence of high pressure over the region diminishes
ahead of a cold front pressing in from out of the northwest.
Temperatures will drop following the frontal passage, with daily
high temps and overnight min temps rising to be above the seasonal
average by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail for the 06Z TAF period with exception of
MVFR restrictions at VQQ/GNV 08-12Z with very light westerly winds
at the coast through 12Z and calm inland. West southwesterly winds
will increase to 8-10 knots by 14Z with increasing mid and high
level clouds as a low develops west of the region. Tonight, winds
decrease under 5 knots and turn southerly with few to scattered low
and mid level clouds.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will slowly weaken as it pushes eastward across
the Gulf Today, becoming centered over south Florida by Friday.
Breezy westerly winds offshore subside tonight. Weak low
pressure then develops over the lower Mississippi Valley on
Friday and shifts eastward across the southeastern states on
Saturday, moving offshore on Saturday night. This storm system
will bring showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to our area
on Saturday and Saturday night, along with Small Craft Advisory
conditions for the offshore waters. Breezy northerly winds are
forecast in the wake of this system on Sunday and Sunday night.
Winds will shift to north-northeasterly by Monday as high
pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic states.

Rip Currents: A low to moderate risk of rip currents anticipated
through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

For today, increasing high clouds and a southwest flow will help
gradually increase moisture levels above critical levels. Areas of
high dispersions develop today due to breezy west southwest
transport winds and increasing mixing heights.

A low pressure system and a cold front will bring a wetting rainfall
to the area Saturday ending late Saturday night. Breezy southwest
winds will elevate dispersion indices Saturday afternoon. Dry
conditions return Sunday into next week after the frontal passage.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of fog will likely form early
this morning along the I-75 corridor into north central FL with
patchy to areas of frost along and north of I-10. A few
thunderstorms are expected Saturday with general rainfall amounts
of around a quarter to half inch with locally higher totals over an
inch possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  49  69  46 /   0  10 100  50
SSI  65  53  70  48 /   0  10  90  80
JAX  68  50  75  51 /   0   0  70  60
SGJ  68  52  75  54 /   0   0  40  70
GNV  71  51  75  54 /   0   0  60  60
OCF  70  51  75  56 /   0   0  40  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$