490
FXUS62 KJAX 121122
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
622 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Freeze Warnings & Frost Advisories through Early Wed Morning.
  Freeze Warning: All Inland Locations with Widespread Frost
  Forecast. Frost Advisories: Portions of Coastal Northeast FL

- Elevated Fire Danger this Afternoon. Long Durations of
  CriticallyLow Humidity Values at All Inland Locations. Drought
  Conditions at Most Inland Locations. Breezy Westerly Winds this
  Afternoon Across Inland Southeast GA

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 102 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Overnight surface analysis depicts gradually weakening Arctic high
pressure (1027 millibars) centered along the FL panhandle coast
and shifting slowly east-southeastward. Aloft...potent shortwave
troughing was progressing eastward across Nova Scotia, leaving a
broad longwave trough and dry west-northwesterly flow in its wake
over the eastern half of the nation. Clear skies, calm winds, and
a very dry air mass are allowing for excellent radiational
cooling conditions, with temperatures already falling to around or
just below freezing throughout inland portions of southeast GA and
northeast FL, with low and mid 30s elsewhere inland. A light
westerly breeze was keeping temperatures along the immediate
Atlantic coast and urban areas such as downtown Jacksonville
closer to 40 degrees as of 06Z. Dewpoints were mostly in the 25-30
range across our region.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 102 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Gradually weakening Arctic high pressure will continue to shift
slowly east-southeastward through the predawn and early morning
hours, becoming centered over north central FL just after sunrise.
Meanwhile, dry west-northwesterly flow aloft will shift slightly
to a more zonal, westerly direction later today and tonight,
downstream of a weak, moisture-starved shortwave that will be
approaching the Deep South from the Ozarks and the lower
Mississippi Valley. Radiational cooling will result in a
widespread light freeze for most inland locations early this
morning, with areas of frost extending to the Intracoastal
Waterway, just inland from the Atlantic coast. Full sunshine, a
very dry air mass, and rising heights aloft will allow for
temperatures to rapidly rebound this morning and afternoon, with
highs uniformly reaching the mid and upper 60s. These values are
still about 4-8 degrees below mid-November climatology.

High pressure will shift south of our area tonight, but
radiational cooling is again expected at inland locations
beneath only a few thin, wispy cirrus clouds. Given the dry air
and subsident air mass in place, we trended lows below model
blends, with inland locations falling to the upper 30s and lower
40s, ranging to the mid and upper 40s for coastal northeast FL. A
few patches of frost may develop at normally colder inland
locales.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 102 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Temperatures are back to near normal on Thursday and Friday with
highs in the 70s. A dry front will approach the area from the
north on Thursday evening, shifting Thursday`s northwesterly winds
to onshore by Friday morning. PWATs remain dry during this time,
only near 0.5" so sunny skies and no precipitation expected. Low
temperatures both nights will generally be in the 40s inland and
50s along the immediate Atlantic coast and the St. Johns River
basin.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 102 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

High pressure settles overhead this weekend following the frontal
passage, promoting clear skies, warm temperatures and pretty calm
winds. Each day during this period will have high temperatures in
the mid to upper 70s, with a few locations seeing 80 degrees. Low
temperatures will be pleasantly over 50 degrees each night after
Sunday, mild in the 60s near the Atlantic coast and St. Johns
River basin.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Prevailing VFR conditions through this TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 102 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Arctic high pressure settling over our region overnight and early
Wednesday morning will continue to gradually weaken while shifting
slowly southward over the Florida peninsula this afternoon and
tonight. Westerly winds will gradually strengthen this afternoon and
evening, followed by winds shifting to northwesterly and increasing
to Caution levels of 15 to 20 knots offshore tonight as another
high pressure center builds southeastward from the Upper Midwest
towards the Tennessee Valley. Winds will shift to northerly while
gradually weakening below Caution levels on Thursday afternoon.
This high pressure center will push a weakening, dry frontal
boundary southward towards our local waters on Thursday night.
Weakening high pressure will then shift directly over our area on
Friday and Saturday as this frontal boundary dissipates. High
pressure will then shift south of our local waters on Saturday
night and Sunday, with southwesterly winds expected to gradually
strengthen ahead of another weakening, dry frontal boundary that
will approach the Georgia waters on Sunday night. Seas of 2 to 4
feet will prevail throughout our local waters during the next
several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 102 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Critically low humidity of 20-30% continues Wednesday with very
weak transport winds creating low daytime dispersion across
north-central FL. A warming trend with humidity recovery begins
Thursday, with humidity expected to remain above critical values
through the end of the week with continued dry weather. Dispersion
values will improve on Thursday as transport winds increase over
northeast FL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 102 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Record low temperatures for today:

November 12:
KJAX: 31/2011
KCRG: 35/2011
KGNV: 30/2011
KAMG: 27/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  40  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  66  43  70  50 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  68  40  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  67  45  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  69  40  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  67  39  74  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-120-124-132-136-137-140-220-225-232-236-237-240-
     322-340-422-425-522.

     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ038-125-138-
     233-325-333-433-533-633.

GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$