294
FXUS62 KJAX 012336
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
636 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Patchy/Areas of Frost along and north of I-10 Early Thursday Morning

- Isolated TStorms & Beneficial Rainfall Saturday and Saturday
  Night. A Few Strong Storms Possible Inland SE GA

&&

.UPDATE...

High cirrus will accompany a dirty ridge as it slides in from
the west tonight. This should curtail fog development or limit
it fog extent to patchy at best. No changes to where fog may
develop, which remains to be along the I-75 corridor where
an advective fog may develop. Otherwise, warmer low temperatures
are expected tonight under the thickening cirrus with freezing
temperatures not expected. Some patchy frost may develop in
colder spots that dip to the mid 30s for inland SE GA but given
the incoming cirrus widespread frost isn`t likely.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure ridging over the Gulf gradually weakens as it shifts
eastward becoming centered over the southern FL peninsula tonight.
Westerly winds and sunny skies will allow temperatures to approach
seasonable with highs in the 60s. Temperatures drop again after
sunset but some increase in high clouds should keep overnight lows
above freezing with lows in the mid-upper 30s over inland areas to
the 40s along the coast. Some patchy/areas of frost will be possible
along and north of the I-10 corridor. Slight increase in low level
moisture from the Gulf could develop patchy fog along the I-75
corridor early Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Early morning frost over southeast Georgia and portions of northeast
Florida along and north of the I-10 corridor and fog developments
south of the Suwannee Valley area will clear before mid morning on
Friday as prevailing flow shifts to become more out of the west and
southwest ahead of an advancing cold front pressing in from out of
the northwest. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will build in
over the forecast area overnight Friday and into Saturday, building
towards the southeast, becoming dispersed and moving offshore by
late Saturday night. Temperatures will warm to be above the seasonal
average with daily max temps rising into the upper 60s and lower to
mid 70s by Saturday with overnight low temperatures ranging between
the mid 40s and the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry weather conditions will settle in over the region on Sunday
following the frontal passage, continuing through into midweek with
a potential for an increase in likelihood of showers by the end of
the period as the influence of high pressure over the region
diminishes ahead of a cold front pressing in from out of the north.
Temperatures will drop following the frontal passage, with daily
high temps and overnight min temps rising to be above the seasonal
average by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the period as
dirty upper ridge brings thick cirrus tonight. This cloud cover
should keep fog and low stratus development to the west where
westerly flow will advect gulf moisture toward the I-75 corridor.
There is a low (< 10%)chance of the gulf-sourced low stratus to
reach GNV with IFR ceilings. Broken to overcast cirrus will
gradually shift to the east toward the end of the period as winds
turn from westerly to south-southwesterly at or below 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will slowly weaken as it pushes eastward across the
Gulf Today, becoming centered over south Florida by Friday. Breezy
westerly winds offshore subside tonight. Weak low pressure then
develops over the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday and shifts
eastward across the southeastern states on Saturday, moving offshore
on Saturday night. This storm system will bring showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms to our area on Saturday and Saturday night,
along with Small Craft Advisory conditions for the offshore waters.
Breezy northerly winds are forecast in the wake of this system on
Sunday and Sunday night. Winds will shift to north-northeasterly by
Monday as high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic states.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Friday
              NE FL Low Friday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Breezy westerly winds will continue through the afternoon as the dry
cold front passes east of the area and high pressure moves into the
central Gulf waters. Sunny skies and breezy winds will lower Min RH
values to near critical values away from the coast 25-30 percent
over SE GA and 28-33 percent over NE FL. On Friday, increasing high
clouds and southwest winds 8-12 mph will help gradually increase
moisture levels above critical levels. Areas of high dispersions
develop Friday due to breezy west southwest transport winds and
increasing mixing heights.

A low pressure system will bring a wetting rainfall to the area
Saturday ending Saturday night. Dry conditions return Sunday into
next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of fog will form late tonight
into early Friday along I-75 into north central FL with patchy to
areas of frost along and north of I-10. Isolated thunderstorms
possible Saturday with general rainfall amounts of around a half
inch with locally higher totals over an inch.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  66  50  69 /   0   0  10 100
SSI  42  66  53  71 /   0   0  10  90
JAX  38  69  50  74 /   0   0   0  70
SGJ  42  69  52  75 /   0   0   0  50
GNV  39  72  52  75 /   0   0   0  70
OCF  39  71  52  74 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$