Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
477 FXUS62 KJAX 280028 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 728 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Dense fog Potential Late Tonight into Sunday Morning - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through Monday - Marine & Coastal Hazards Early Next Week. Small Craft Advisories Likely on Monday Night and Tuesday - Cold Weather Returns Next Week. Inland Freezes Likely on Tuesday - Thursday Nights. Cold Weather Advisory Possible Tuesday night. && .UPDATE... Little overall change in the forecast for tonight with low stratus and areas of dense fog likely to develop tonight. Did some slight adjustments to spread the fog a little further east Sunday morning. May eventually need a dense fog advisory for widespread dense fog, but given the current model output and the fact that this is more of advection fog event makes it a little difficult to pinpoint the counties in an advisory at this time. However, most of the data point to the I-75 corridor and and possibly into inland southeast GA (where the combo of lower boundary layer wind speeds and low cigs are more prone) so will be monitoring that area and latest guidance closely for any advisory issuance this evening. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Dry weather conditions continue with stacked ridging over the eastern Gulf and FL peninsula through tonight. Persistent low-mid stratocumulus deck over the area gradually deteriorates from north to south through the afternoon. Breaks in the cloud cover during the mid to late afternoon hours should allow highs to climb to the mid to upper 70s, and a few locations where cloud cover breaks up could reach 80. Another round of fog and low stratus clouds are expected to move onshore from the FL Big Bend and Nature Coasts later this evening, with these low clouds and likely dense fog expected to overspread our entire area from southwest to northeast overnight. Our local pressure gradient will also loosen overnight as high pressure becomes centered over the FL peninsula, with calm winds likely resulting in dense fog formation by the predawn and early morning hours with the best chances along the I-75 corridor. Lows will only fall to the 55-60 degree range area-wide tonight. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure breaks down and shifts towards the east to southeast on Sunday, resulting in even more of a southwesterly flow and another fair and mild day across the region. Low level cumulus and high level cirrus will make for partly cloudy skies after fog slowly lifts Sunday mid to late morning due to weak winds under high pressure. A weak seabreeze will bring in more south to southeasterly winds by the immediate coastline as well. A few isolated sprinkles cannot be ruled out Sunday as a weak shortwave moves across during the afternoon and evening and a pseudo warm front starts to form and lift northeast of the region Monday Night, though given the overall dry spell have opted to leave any mention of this out at this time. High temps in the mid to upper 70s will be common, except some low 70s by the immediate coast. Sunday night, a strong cold front starts to approach the region as high pressure continues to retreat. Low level winds will start to pick up a bit ahead of the front, especially over interior GA where a few isolated showers also cannot be ruled out early Monday Morning. Patchy to areas of fog may develop in the flow off the Gulf coast, but it will depend on how much winds pick up throughout the night as these winds could keep most fog elevated into low stratus. Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s. Monday, potent upper level troughing dives into the southeastern states, pushing the aforementioned cold front across the region throughout the day and into Monday Night. Breezy southwest winds will be expected head of the front, generally around 10-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph between the cold front and high pressure departing to the east. As is what tends to occur near/over our area during the cool season, most of the more intense upper level dynamics will weaken approaching the area and also lag behind the main front. PWATs also only increase to around the 1.2-1.3 inch range and instability will be limited. Therefore, just expecting a chance of showers across inland GA and towards the I-10 corridor during the day out ahead of the boundary Monday before these chances drop off for south and east areas as the front moves through during the loss of daytime heating. Despite the lackluster convective chances, this will still be quite the potent front, with strong cold air advection spilling into the region Monday Evening through Monday Night from northwest to southeast. High temps quickly jump up into the 70s to near 80 Monday before crashing Monday Night into the 30s to low 40s. Winds are expected to be too strong for any frost potential, though isolated light freeze will be possible over inland southeast GA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The front exits the area Tuesday as high pressure continues to build in from the northwest. Tuesday and even Wednesday will be quite cool and a bit breezy as this airmass settles in and high pressure remains generally west of the region. Weakening flow will allow for widespread light and hard freezes across the region on Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning, with this potential in place even all the way to the coasts and St. Johns River Basin. With these cold temperatures, even just a light amount a wind could also warrant a cold weather advisory for some or most areas. Deep upper troughing pattern is likely to persist Wednesday through Friday, with weak surface high pressure looking to remain generally west or northwest of the region. Guidance does start to diverge more than one would like towards the end of the long term period, mainly with respect to both how long and to what extent upper troughing aloft remains over the region, as well as how the next frontal system starts to take shape by the end of next week. General consensus at this time will be for dry and cool conditions to continue for mid to late next week, though with the cooler temps trending upward a bit. Frost/freeze potential also looks to continue inland each morning Wednesday - Friday, though not to the extent as what is expected Wednesday Morning. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Scattered to broken stratocumulus clouds, cigs from around 3000-4500 ft, linger over the TAF sites this evening. There may be some occasional MVFR cig around in the 00z-05z time frame tonight. Otherwise, low stratus clouds and fog are still expected to develop from SW to NE between 05Z-13Z and spread across the TAF sites. SSI may escape most of the lowest of cloud decks below 1 kft, but may near this terminal late tonight. Some dense fog will be possible mainly for GNV and VQQ where visibilities could drop to LIFR. The fog and stratus will be lifting Sunday morning to MVFR near or after 15z and then probably lifting to VFR clouds around the 16z-18z time frame. Light westerly sfc winds initially will drop to near calm overnight. Light and variable flow Sunday morning through about 15z becomes southwesterly about 5 kt. Sea breeze may push through SGJ and SSI near and after 18z. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain centered over the southeast Gulf and southern Florida peninsula through the weekend. High pressure will then weaken and slide southward on Sunday night ahead of a strong cold front, which may bring a few showers to our local waters on Monday afternoon and evening. West- southwesterly winds increase to Caution levels on Monday ahead of an approaching front. Winds shift to northwesterly and strengthen to Small Craft Advisory levels Monday night into Tuesday in the wake of the frontal passages. West- northwesterly winds continue for much of next week as high pressure builds eastward along the northern Gulf coast. Rip Currents: Moderate risk through Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Weak high pressure will drift across the Florida peninsula through Sunday, persisting fair weather and light winds across the region. This will unfortunately result in only fair dispersions today and more areas of poor/low dispersions on Sunday. These light winds will be mainly out of the west to southwest through Sunday. A potent cold front will move through the region Monday and Monday Night, which will return breezier flow and therefore good to borderline high dispersions as well as one more day of above normal temps. Winds will shift northwesterly into Tuesday and much cooler and drier air works into the region. MinRH values drop into the upper 20s to low 30s of percent inland Tuesday, and combined with northwest winds around 10-15mph will place much of the region at borderline elevated fire danger headlines. Dry conditions will continue through mid next week as high pressure remains in control. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog is expected to develop across the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor into north central FL early Sunday & Monday Mornings. The fog could be locally dense. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 59 76 56 74 / 0 10 0 30 SSI 58 72 57 74 / 0 0 0 20 JAX 58 78 56 80 / 0 0 0 20 SGJ 60 75 56 79 / 0 0 0 10 GNV 58 79 56 79 / 0 0 0 20 OCF 57 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$