713
FXUS62 KJAX 260450
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1250 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents Today

- Minor Tidal Flooding within the St Johns River through this
  Evening. Elevated Tides in the St Johns River through the
  Weekend

- Small Craft Advisories through This Evening

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- High rip current risk and elevated surf heights through
  Tonight
- Minor flooding possible the St Johns river with next couple of
  high tide cycles through this evening

Winds are calm inland this morning while remaining light 5-10 mph
from the north along the coast and St Johns river as the pressure
gradient eases over the region as strong low pressure lifts further
away to the north as high pressure ridging extends from the Midwest
into the TN valley and southeast states. Dry northerly flow, clear
skies, and winds backing to the northwest in the mid/upper levels is
providing cool air advection with temperatures falling into the mid
50s across inland SE GA south and the I-10 corridor with upper 50s
west of the St Johns river. But, northerly to NNE flow over the
coast is keeping milder temperatures there in the low to mid 60s.

High pressure over the deep south and southeast will remain the
primary weather influence today with sunny skies and below normal
highs in the low 80s inland and upper 70s to near 80 along the
coast. Winds 5-10 mph will turn NNE this afternoon up to 10-15 mph
behind the Atlantic seabreeze developing mid to late afternoon and
turning winds northeasterly as the boundary moves west past I-95 mid
afternoon and then past US-17 by late afternoon.

Tonight, low to mid level ridging aloft will move over the area with
winds decoupling inland to calm under mostly clear skies as a few
high thin cirrus clouds arriving from the west. Lows will fall to
the low/mid 50s west of I-95 in SE GA and west of US-17 in NE FL
with upper 50s east of I-95 to near 60 at the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period (Sunday/Monday):

- Minor Tidal Flooding Likely within the St. Johns River Basin.

- Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents at Atlantic Beaches

- Temperatures return closer to normal values Sunday and Monday

Light West to Northwest steering flow and a dry airmass in place
will allow for daytime temps to return closer to seasonable values
with highs in the middle 80s Sunday and into the upper 80s on Monday
with no rainfall expected. Overnight lows will still remain cooler
than normal with lows in the 50s/lower 60s inland both nights and
mid/upper 60s closer to the Atlantic Coast. Patchy fog will be
possible over inland areas around sunrise both mornings, but
significant dense fog in not expected due to the dry airmass in
place.

Lingering minor tidal flooding will remain within the St. Johns
River Basin during times of high tide, but will begin to lessen by
Monday as offshore flow develops. Moderate to high risk of rip
currents will linger at Atlantic beaches due to the remaining swells
and rough surf despite the offshore flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period (Tuesday through Friday):

- Return to above normal temperatures and increasing rain chances
late in the week

Initially dry weather conditions will be in place on Tuesday and
Wednesday but above normal temperatures will return with highs into
the lower 90s inland and 80s along the Atlantic Coast. Long range
models suggesting a tropical wave with deeper moisture in SE flow
will track NW up the Florida Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf
late in the week with increasing rainfall chances and potential
thunderstorm activity on Thursday and Friday, mostly for NE FL but
some moisture will push into SE GA for at least scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon/evening
hours.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail during the period. Only exception will
be MVFR restrictions at VQQ due to localized patchy fog. Near calm
winds will become northerly 5-8 knots this afternoon and up to
around 10 knots at SGJ/SSI and turn northeasterly behind the a weak
Atlantic seabreeze this afternoon, winds then become calm after 00Z
inland and light and variable at the coast under a few high clouds.

&&

.MARINE...


Strong low pressure to the northeast will track further away to the
north through the end of the weekend as high pressure builds
southward from the eastern Great Lakes into the southeast. As low
pressure lifts away, the pressure gradient will ease over the region
with gradually diminishing winds and seas through this evening,
ending small craft conditions nearshore late this morning and
offshore this evening. High pressure will shift over the region
Sunday and Monday with prevailing west to southwest winds, turning
southeasterly in the afternoon nearshore from the Atlantic seabreeze
circulation. High pressure will shift east of the waters midweek
with southerly winds, turning easterly in the afternoon over the
nearshore waters from seabreeze circulation. Increasing moisture
will bring a return of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
over the waters by midweek.

Rip Currents: Breezy north northeasterly winds today, long period
swells, and elevated surf heights up to 4 to 6 feet will continue
high risk of rip currents today. Long period swells will persist
through Sunday and continue a high risk of rip currents through the
end of the weekend at Northeast FL beaches with a high end moderate
risk at Southeast Georgia beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Over the weekend a dry airmass will push across the area and lower
afternoon humidity to at least 25-30% for several inland districts
Today, Sunday, and Monday. Surface and transport winds will then
shift to northeasterly Today, with breezy conditions persisting at
coastal locations. Fair to good daytime dispersion values are
forecast area-wide. Winds will become light and turn westerly on
Sunday. Warming temperatures and rising humidity levels are expected
through next week with winds favoring the diurnal Atlantic sea
breeze regime.

Fog Potential...Significant fog formation unlikely the next several
days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will continue rising through the start of the
weekend due to the upcoming Full "Harvest" Moon later today. Breezy
north to northeasterly onshore winds today will keep trapped tides
within the St Johns river with water slow to drain Sunday into early
next week due to lingering high astronomical tides and light winds.
Water levels peaking during high tide between 1.5 - 2 feet above
Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) from Friday evening`s high tides are
forecast to peak again between 1.5 - 2 feet MHHW for the upcoming
high tide cycles this morning and again this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  54  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  80  62  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  80  56  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  80  60  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  82  55  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  84  57  87  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ125-132-
     137-225-325-633.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ452-
     454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ470.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ472-474.

&&

$$