437
FXUS62 KJAX 180019
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
819 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...New AVIATION, UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk Of Rip Currents through Monday

- Thunderstorms this Week - Mainly Afternoon & Evening. This Evening:
 Isolated Strong Storms near I-75 Corridor and interior
 southeast GA. Tue & Wed: Inland Storms. Thu-Sat:
 Better storm chances focus toward I-95 Corridor

&&

.UPDATE...
At 815 pm, numerous showers and storms continue to progress north
and northwest over the western parts of the forecast area with very
heavy rainfall/minor flooding, gusty winds of 40-55 mph, and
possibly some hail. The convection should dissipate by
around midnight. However, the guidance has not done a very good
job this evening with current radar displays so made some
adjustments o the POPs, extending chances longer and upped the
chances. The pulse storms are forming in the environment of 1000-
1600 MLCAPE but bulk shear likely below 15-20 kt. Made minor
adjustments to low temps tonight and upped the winds along the coast
for this evening and where parts of the marine waters have exercise
caution statement winds of 15-20 kt. Minor changes for patchy fog
for late tonight placed further inland by sunrise Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday
- Isolated Severe Storm Risk near I-75 late afternoon & evening

A very unstable airmass was developing across the local forecast
area early this afternoon with surface based CAPEs over 3k J/kg with
temps in the upper 80s to near 90 inland and juicy dew pts in the
lower 70s. Radar showed a few `seeding` showers breaking out ahead
of the east coast sea breeze across Flagler, Putnam, Marion and
Duval counties. With further heating and sea and river breeze
boundaries developing, diurnally enhanced convection will continue
to erupt through the afternoon and expand in coverage between the
Highway 301 and Interstate 75 corridors. By late afternoon into the
early evening, sea breeze and boundary collisions are still on track
to merge near the Interstate 75 corridor where the best potential
for strong to pulse severe storms will focus. Mean layer 1000-700 mb
ESE steering flow near 10 kts will propagate cells toward the WNW,
but upper level NW anvil level flow will push some lingering
stratiform and lightning risk back toward the ESE as surface based
storms depart to the west of the region through 10 pm.

The 12z JAX RAOB displayed a more unstable airmass compared to
yesterday with a weakening and lifting low level inversion. Very
steep mid level lapse rates (7.5 C/km) were noted between 700-500 mb
with below normal 500 mb temps of -11.6 degC and stronger NW anvil
level winds. There was also a notable layer of dry mid level air.
All of these convective ingredients support an increased risk of
isolated strong to pulse severe storms this afternoon where boundary
mergers collide, especially for locations west of Highway 301 and
toward the I-75 corridor between the 5 pm and 8 pm time frame.
Thunderstorm hazards will include gusty wet downbursts of 40-60 mph
and small hail, as well as localized heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning. With storm motion of only near 10 kts and deep layer
moisture over the 75th percentile of 1.53" for locations near and
west of Highway 301, localized, temporary flooding could occur this
evening across parts of the Suwannee River Valley, with localized
high end values of 2-3 inches.

Rainfall tapers off by 10 pm as drier air invades from the east with
precipitable water content falling below 1 inch into Monday morning.
With inland rain this evening, clearing skies overnight and
decoupled winds, included patchy ground fog toward daybreak for much
of the I-75 corridor northward into SE GA, generally west of
Waycross as low temperatures fall into the mid to upper 60s inland
to low 70s coast thanks to the drier air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Showers and storms development limited on Monday. Afternoon
thunderstorms return on Tuesday along the sea breeze.

- Rip currents at area beaches will be a concern; High risk likely
through the first half of the upcoming week.

Drier air in place on Monday will limit convection, leaving mostly
sunny skies and warm temperatures. An onshore breeze will keep east
coast locations in the 80s whereas most inland spots will rise into
the low 90s. The stronger easterly winds may bring a few stray
showers onshore Monday afternoon and into north central Florida, but
overall it will be a dry day.

Tuesday, PWATs begin to increase with steering flow coming off the
Atlantic, paving the way for daily afternoon showers and storms.
Convection will mainly be limited to northeast FL on Tuesday,
particularly near the I-75 corridor where sea breezes merge, with
similar temperatures to Monday as the onshore breeze continues.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weather Concerns this Period:

- Daily afternoon thunderstorms; best coverage and strongest storms
expected along the sea breeze mergers

- Rip currents at area beaches continue to be of concern

Precipitation chances will increase in coverage gradually each day
Wednesday onward as onshore winds continue and a front begins to
sink southward and stall over northern Georgia late this week.
Midweek, the Atlantic sea breeze will push inland, sparking up
convection mainly west of I-95 each afternoon as it interacts with
the Gulf sea breeze. By the end of the week into the weekend,
steering flow is expected to become more southerly, allowing the two
sea breezes to meet in a more central location, and increasing
precipitation chances overall this weekend.

Overall, temperatures each day will be a little above normal, in the
lower to mid 90s inland, and a little cooler near the Atlantic coast
in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Showers and storms continue to develop and progress further
inland and staying northwest of the TAF sites this evening. Still
have a vicinity shower of GNV through mid evening. Otherwise, dry
conditions with no mention of convection in TAFs through the end of
the TAF period at this time. Minimal chances of vsby and cig
restrictions by 12z Monday, with the main site VQQ with
possible MVFR vsby. Sfc winds continue near 8-14 kt with a few
higher gusts this evening, but winds relax after midnight.
After 12z, VFR conditions under ESE winds 5-10 kts, increasing to 8-
14 kt by 16z and dry weather.

&&

.MARINE...

The Bermuda ridge will dominant through the week with a ridge axis
extending just north of the local waters. This pattern will bring
persistent east to southeast winds, with local wind surges each
afternoon and evening trailing the inland progressing east coast sea
breeze. Morning and midday showers and isolated coastal storms will
shift inland by mid-afternoon with generally clearing skies across
the local waters late afternoon into the evening.

Rip Currents:

A high rip current risk continues for all local beaches through at
least Monday due to persistent onshore winds. An elevated risk will
continue through the end of the week due to prevailing ESE winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Patchy High Dispersions Into Midweek

The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly
transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions
inland each afternoon heading into midweek. Patchy high dispersion
will be present over inland locations on Monday and Tuesday. MinRH
will be unconcerning this week, with slightly lower values inland on
Monday, however they will be above critical values. Moisture then
steadily increases each day, with thunderstorms possible each
afternoon and evening, mainly for inland northeast FL through
Thursday, then area-wide Friday through next weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms each day
Tuesday onward. Patchy fog possible early Monday morning inland.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  88  63  89 /  60   0   0  10
SSI  73  83  73  83 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  68  87  69  87 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  71  86  73  87 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  66  91  68  91 /  40   0   0  20
OCF  69  91  70  91 /  30   0   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$