081
FXUS62 KJAX 270726
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
326 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Minor to Moderate
  Flooding During Times of High Tide Continuing Along the
  Atlantic Coast and Within the Intracoastal Waterway and the
  Entirety of the St. Johns River Basin.

- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Continue, with High Surf
  Advisories Continuing at the Northeast FL Beaches through
  Thursday Night. A High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents will
  Persist at All Area Beaches into the Upcoming Weekend.
  Pounding Surf During High Tide Cycles Will Cause Major Beach
  Erosion through Friday.

- Gusty Onshore Winds Will Continue at Coastal Locations through
  Friday, with Frequent 30-35 mph Gusts Expected on Wednesday
  and Wednesday Night.

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Main Highlights:

- Coastal Hazards Continue, with Coastal Flood Warnings
  Remaining in Effect along the NE FL Atlantic Coast,
  Intracoastal Waterway and St. Johns River Basin. Moderate
  Tidal Flooding Will Continue Around Times of High Tide for
  these Locations.

Waves of coastal showers will continue to shift onshore in the
NE flow to coastal NE FL mainly south of St Augustine through
the late morning hours. The local pressure gradient weakens
slightly as high pressure to the north weakens but gusts could
still reach up to 30 mph along the coast. A drier airmass (PWATs
< 1 in) in place will keep much of the area rain-free today.
With lighter onshore winds and clearer skies, highs will rise to
the mid/upper 70s along the coast to the low 80s inland. The
local pressure gradient will tighten slightly late tonight as a
reinforcing strong high pressure begins to wedge down the
southeastern seaboard once again. Lows will fall into the 50s
for inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, with 60s
expected elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Minor to Moderate
  Flooding During Times of High Tide Continuing Along the
  Atlantic Coast and Within the Intracoastal Waterway and the
  Entirety of the St. Johns River Basin.

- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Continue, with High Surf
  Advisories Continuing at the Northeast FL Beaches. A High Risk
  for Deadly Rip Currents will Persist at All Area Beaches.
  Pounding Surf During High Tide Cycles Will Cause Major Beach
  Erosion.

Cutoff troughing situated over the Bahamas on Tuesday will lift
slowly northward on Wednesday and will then shift eastward by
Thursday as ridging aloft over our region slowly flattens. This
ridge will direct a weakening shortwave trough northeastward
from the eastern Great Lakes across New England, with this
feature moving offshore by Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile,
reinforcing surface high pressure will shift offshore from
coastal New England and will continue to wedge down the
southeastern seaboard. Otherwise, sharp coastal troughing will
remain situated over our local Atlantic waters.

High pressure wedging down the southeastern seaboard and a
sharpening trough extending from the Bahamas westward across
south FL will tighten our local pressure gradient on Wednesday.
Northeasterly winds will increase to 20-25 mph with frequent
gusts of 30-35 mph across coastal northeast FL, with breezy
conditions developing elsewhere during the late morning and
early afternoon hours. Strengthening low level convergence will
allow a surge of Atlantic moisture located on the northern edge
of the surface trough to overspread locations south of the
Interstate 10 corridor, where showers will move onshore for
coastal locations south of Mayport during the afternoon hours,
with activity moving westward across portions of the St. Johns
River basin. Gusty onshore winds will keep highs mostly in the
mid 70s for locations along and east of the I-95 corridor on
Wednesday, with upper 70s and lower 80s prevailing inland.
Breezy onshore winds will keep coastal lows on Wednesday night
in the upper 60s and lower 70s, while a lighter breeze inland
keeps lows in the low to mid 60s.

High pressure will weaken as it shifts slowly southward on
Thursday,  becoming re-oriented over the Tennessee Valley and
the southern Appalachians. Meanwhile, coastal troughing will
remain in place over our adjacent Atlantic waters, with a sharp
surface trough over south FL lifting slowly northward. Although
our local pressure gradient will begin to very gradually loosen,
convergent low level east- northeasterly flow will continue to
advect scattered showers onshore from the Atlantic waters across
coastal northeast FL and the St. Johns River basin. Gusty
onshore winds will keep coastal highs in the mid to upper 70s,
while inland highs generally climb to the lower 80s, with a few
mid 80s possible for north central FL. The loosening pressure
gradient will allow winds to decouple at inland locations on
Thursday evening, with moist onshore flow likely developing low
stratus ceilings at most locations during the predawn and early
morning hours on Friday. Lows at inland locations will generally
fall to the 60-65 degree range, while an onshore breeze keeps
lows in the upper 60s for north central and coastal northeast
FL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding Continues During Times of
  High Tide Within the St. Johns River Basin.

- Dangerous Surf Conditions Persist, with an Elevated Rip
  Current Risk Likely Continuing through the Upcoming Weekend.

- Increasing Chances for Showers and a Few Thunderstorms on
  Sunday and Sunday Night.

Ridging aloft positioned over Mexico`s Yucatan Peninsula and the
southern Gulf will expand northeastward over our area. This
feature will direct a potent shortwave trough north-
northeastward from west Texas on Friday to the Upper Midwest by
Sunday morning, with this trough then pivoting slowly eastward
across the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, a southern stream
trough will amplify over the lower Mississippi Valley will
amplify on Saturday, with this feature continuing to sharpen as
it moves eastward, crossing our region on Sunday afternoon and
night, moving offshore by Monday afternoon.

Another reinforcing surface high pressure center will build
southeastward from the Great Lakes on Friday, with this feature
wedging down the southeastern seaboard through Saturday and
keeping a stubborn coastal trough in place over our adjacent
Atlantic waters. Breezy onshore flow will continue on Friday and
Saturday, advecting isolated to widely scattered showers
onshore along the Atlantic coastal counties, especially on
Saturday, when veering low level flow could shift activity
inland during the afternoon hours. This moist flow will likely
develop low stratus cloud cover at inland locations during the
predawn and early morning hours each day. Breezy onshore winds
will highs in the mid to upper 70s for locations along and east
of I-95, while low to mid 80s forecast for inland locations west
of I-95. Lows will range from the lower and mid 60s inland to
the upper 60s to around 70 at coastal locations.

High pressure will shift offshore of coastal New England on
Sunday,  allowing low level flow to veer to southerly ahead of
the approaching shortwave trough by the afternoon hours. Deep
moisture will overspread our region ahead of this shortwave`s
associated surface trough, likely allowing at least scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms to traverse our area from
west to east, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
Forecast trends have been increasing rain chances for our entire
area on Sunday and Sunday night, with activity potentially
persisting into Monday along the I-95 corridor. Persistent
onshore winds will keep highs in the mid to upper 70s for
coastal locations, while low to mid 80s remain forecast for
inland locations. Lows will only fall to the mid and upper 60s
on Saturday night, with 60s likely prevailing again on Sunday
night as multi-layered cloudiness overspreads our region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...

Lighter NNE winds about 5-10 kts continue for most sites through
sunrise before increasing again to sustained 15-20 kts with
gusts 20- 25 kts generally after 15Z. MVFR CIGS will linger over
SGJ through sunrise and may linger into the late morning.
Rounds of light showers will pass by SGJ through 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure to the north and an area of low pressure to the
south  will maintain breezy northeasterly winds and elevated
seas through Thursday. Rounds of showers will continue to move
over the coastal waters through the week. The high will weaken
slowly to the north this week with winds and waves subsiding
below advisory levels by the end of the week.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High Surf Advisories have been
extended through Thursday night for the northeast FL beaches,
where breakers of 7 to 9 feet today will build slightly to the
8-10 ft range on Wednesday, followed by breakers of 6 to 8 feet
on Thursday. Breakers of 4 to 6 feet will prevail at the
southeast GA beaches through Thursday. These elevated, rough
surf conditions will maintain a high risk of deadly rip currents
at all area beaches through the upcoming weekend, and major
beach erosion is likely to occur around times of high tide
during this extended duration onshore wind event.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
  ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

Isolated to widely scattered showers will continue to
occasionally  move onshore along the northeast Florida coast
through tonight, mainly for locations from St. Augustine to
Palatka and points southward. Shower coverage will increase on
Wednesday and Thursday for coastal northeast Florida and the St.
Johns River basin to the south of Jacksonville. Otherwise, dry
weather will continue during the next several days for southeast
Georgia and the Suwannee Valley, with a seasonably dry air mass
dropping humidity values to around 30 percent on Tuesday
afternoon for locations north and west of Waycross in southeast
Georgia.

Strong northeasterly surface and transport winds will continue
along  the northeast Florida coastal counties through Thursday,
with breezy conditions elsewhere yielding fair to good daytime
dispersion values area-wide. Breezy surface and transport winds
during the overnight hours will result in elevated nighttime
dispersion values for locations along and east of I-95 each
night through Thursday. Surface and transport winds will then
shift to east-northeasterly on Friday and easterly on Saturday,
with breezy speeds keeping fair to good daytime dispersion
values in the forecast area-wide.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog
formation is not expected during the next several days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Northeasterly winds will remain breezy and will combine with
high astronomical tides due to the lunar perigee to maintain
moderate tidal flooding this week within the St. Johns River basin,
with minor to moderate flooding continuing during times of high
tide along the Atlantic coast and intracoastal. Water levels
will generally reach 2-3 feet above Mean Higher High Water
(MHHW) during times of high tide. The long duration of this
strong onshore wind event will likely produce major beach
erosion during each high tide cycle through at least Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  53  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  74  62  75  64 /   0   0  10   0
JAX  77  64  78  66 /   0   0  10   0
SGJ  78  70  78  71 /  20  10  40  40
GNV  81  64  81  67 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  82  65  82  69 /  10   0  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ038-124-125-
     132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late Thursday night for FLZ124-
     125-138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Thursday night for GAZ154-
     166.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$