Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
817 FXUS62 KJAX 042331 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 731 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Rip Current Risk through the Weekend - Daily Heat Index near 105 through the Weekend - Daily Thunderstorms Localized Flood Risk through Monday. Today: Local Rainfall Amounts to near 4 inches. Possible localized - Patchy Inland Late Night & Early Morning Fog && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Highlights Tonight: - Isolated thunderstorms this evening, with locally heavy rainfall The coverage of showers and storms will continue to decrease this evening. A dry overnight is expected. Lows in the middle 70s will be common Tonight. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: (Saturday through Sunday night) - Localized Flooding Rain Threat - Isolated Daily Strong Storms Afternoon/Evening, mainly near the east coast A ridge of high pressure will stretch across southern FL Saturday, as a front approaches from the north. The low level flow between these features will be from the southwest. With this flow, the east coast sea breeze will have a hard time getting much further inland than the I95 corridor. Anticipate moisture moving off the Gulf Saturday morning, and producing showers early in the day. With diurnal heating, these showers will strengthen into thunderstorms, as the activity moves east northeast later in the morning and through the afternoon. A maximum of convective activity is expected to occur across the I95 corridor during the afternoon, due interaction with the east coast sea breeze. The greatest chance for strong storms will be along the sea breeze. With loss of heating, this activity is then expected to dissipate during the evening. On Sunday, the ridge will move further south, as the front sinks across GA. The low level flow Sunday will more from the west and the east coast sea breeze will likely not get much pass the beaches. Once again with moisture flowing in from the Gulf, convective activity will get going in the morning, with an area coverage max occuring in the afternoon along the east coast due to the sea breeze. Once again the greatest chance for strong storms Sunday will be along near the coast in the afternoon. The front is expected to sink to near the GA/FL line Sunday night, with convergence along this boundary keeping convective chances in the forecast through the night. Temperatures will trend a little above normal this period. The flow is fairly light this period, so would anticipate that any storms which form will be slow moving, and the potential to produce localized heavy rainfall. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: (Monday through Friday) - Gusty onshore winds Monday night through Wednesday - Potential for strong thunderstorms each day - Elevated Tides with Approach of Sept 11 New Moon A surface front will weaken as it pushes south across the area Monday through Tuesday. Convergence along this boundary will result in higher than average chances for convection both these days, with activity possibly extending into Mondy night as well. High pressure will build to the northeast behind the front Tuesday through Wednesday. As the front clears an area from north to south during these two days, the onshore flow will increase with gusty conditions near the coast. An upper high will build overhead during these two days. While precipitation chances will remain higher than average Wednesday, expect potential for stronger storms to decrease with ridge building aloft. Another front will approach from the north Thursday, and push into the local area Friday. Will trend toward seasonal averages for convective chances late in this period, as models diverge on high fast that front gets into area. Temperatures will trend near to a little below average for much of this period, then above late in the period. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Convection will continue to decrease in intensity and coverage early this period. Low level moisture is expected to result in areas of low clouds overnight. Convection is expected to start inland late in the morning, then spread northeast. Restrictions and gusty winds are forecast in and near storms. && .MARINE... Winds will be southeast to south today into tonight over area waters as high pressure becomes situated east of our area. Prevailing westerly winds are then expected from Saturday through at least Monday morning as a frontal boundary sinks southward towards our region, with this feature maintaining a stormy weather pattern. Stronger high pressure will build down the southeastern seaboard early next week in the wake of this boundary, likely pushing the front over the northeast Florida waters. Onshore winds will then redevelop over the area waters by Tuesday. Rip Currents: Rip current risk will be moderate at all area beaches rest of today as winds will be onshore with occasionally rough surf at times. The risk will tend to drop for the weekend with more offshore winds prevailing. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy Low Dispersions Ne Fl Monday The region will be between a high pressure ridge to the south, and a front to the north A frontal boundary will move south across the area through Saturday. A frontal boundary will sink south across the area Sunday through Tuesday. High pressure will build to the northeast following this front mid week, bringing onshore flow, which will be gusty at the coast. Another front will approach the region late in the week. Above average chances for thunderstorms can be expected for much of this week. Fog Potential: Gusty and erratic winds will occur with thunderstorm activity. Patchy inland morning fog each day. && .HYDROLOGY... Coastal water levels begin to increase mid week next week with the approach of the New Moon on Sept 11th combined with onshore easterly flow. At this time, extended probabilistic guidance keeps water levels below action stage through Wednesday both along the local Atlantic coast and within the St. Johns River basin. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 92 75 94 / 20 20 10 50 SSI 77 91 77 93 / 10 20 20 60 JAX 74 92 74 93 / 30 40 20 70 SGJ 75 91 75 93 / 30 50 20 60 GNV 73 91 73 91 / 30 50 10 70 OCF 74 91 74 92 / 20 40 20 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$