Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
261 FXUS62 KJAX 070617 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 217 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Rip Current Risk at All Area Beaches Today. - Patchy Fog Possible Early on Monday and Tuesday Mornings Inland. - Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Early Evening Thunderstorms Possible Inland on Monday and Tuesday. - Increasing Chances for Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Late this Week and Next Weekend. - Afternoon Heat Index Values Rise to 100-105 on Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Dry & Very Warm Conditions Continue. - Moderate Rip Current Risk At Area Beaches. Weak surface high pressure centered east of the region through tonight will persist a rather light onshore southeasterly flow area- wide. PWATs do start to increase from the west/northwest late this evening and through tonight thanks to a shift in the flow aloft as upper ridging starts to weaken/flatten, though this should not have a significant impact on expected conditions today and tonight outside of continuous high clouds and a very low chance (around 5- 10%) of an isolated shower over western portions of the CWA late this evening and tonight. But otherwise, mostly dry and very warm/hot conditions prevail today, with highs in the low to perhaps mid 90s inland and upper 80s closer to the coast. Low temps also continue to moderate, with upper 60s to mid 70s expected tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Isolated to Widely Scattered Mainly Afternoon and Evening Showers and Thunderstorms, Mainly Across Inland Southeast GA. - Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at the Northeast FL Beaches. Deep-layered ridging positioned over the northeast Gulf on Monday morning will flatten during the afternoon and evening hours as a shortwave trough progresses eastward across the Deep South. Moisture levels will increase from northwest to southeast during the afternoon and evening hours, with PWATS climbing above 2 inches across inland southeast GA and for locations southward through the Interstate 75 corridor in the Suwannee Valley and north central FL. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop at these locations as mesoscale boundaries collide within this increasingly humid air mass, with activity potentially extending into the evening and overnight hours, especially across inland southeast GA. Thickening multi-layered cloud cover associated with the approaching trough upstream should keep highs in the mid to upper 80s for locations north and west of Waycross, GA, while filtered sunshine elsewhere boosts highs to the low and mid 90s at inland locations, while the afternoon sea breeze keeps coastal highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Dewpoints should still mix down to the 60s during the afternoon hours, keeping heat index values generally below 100. Thickening multi-layered cloud cover should overspread our region on Monday night, keeping inland lows in the low to mid 70s, except mid to upper 70s at coastal locations. High pressure building along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday in the wake of a "backdoor" cold front that will dissipate over the Carolinas will briefly wedge down the southeastern seaboard, shifting low level flow to northeasterly and advecting a drier air mass across northeast and north central FL, where PWATs will fall to below 1.5 inches along the I-95 corridor during the afternoon hours. Troughing aloft will weaken over our area, with leftover multi- layered cloud cover keeping highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s, except around 90 along the I-75 corridor. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms should remain confined to interior southeast GA and perhaps northern portions of the Suwannee Valley. Troughing should continue to shear out over the Deep South on Tuesday night, with convection likely ending early in the evening across inland southeast GA. Decreasing cloud cover may allow lows to fall back to near 70 degrees at inland locations, ranging to the mid 70s at area beaches. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Increasing Chances for Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Late this Week and Next Weekend. - Afternoon Heat Index Values Rise to 100-105 on Friday and Saturday. High pressure will weaken by midweek as it shifts southward off the southeastern seaboard, with ridging aloft over the U.S. eastern seaboard setting up a return to the typically hot and humid June weather pattern for our area. The unseasonably dry air mass that advects into our area on Tuesday may linger into Wednesday along the I-95 corridor, with isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening convection mainly confined to inland locations. Highs will rebound into the lower 90s at most inland locations, with breezy onshore winds developing in the wake of the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze again keeping coastal highs in the mid to upper 80s. The lingering dry air mass should again allow dewpoints to mix down into the 60s at inland locations on Wednesday afternoon, keeping heat index values below 100 degrees. Convection should dissipate early on Wednesday evening at inland locations, with thinning debris cloud cover overnight yielding lows in the lower 70s inland, with mid to upper 70s forecast at coastal locations. Deep-layered ridging will retrograde westward late this week, allowing troughing to take shape over our region. Deep-layered flow will likely become southerly, which will allow moisture levels to increase from south to north, especially by Friday and Saturday. Thursday will likely be a transition day, as PWATs climb to near 2 inches and a loose local pressure gradient allows the Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes to develop by early afternoon and progress inland. Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms should develop in this increasingly hot and humid air mass, favoring inland locations, where mesoscale boundaries will collide late in the afternoon and evening. Convection will become likely for inland locations south of I-10 on Friday afternoon and evening, with these likely POPs then expanding into portions of inland southeast GA by Saturday, per long term model guidance blends. The bigger story later this week and next weekend will be the return of heat and humidity. Highs will soar to the low and mid 90s, with heat index values peaking in the 100-105 degree range each afternoon. Lows will only fall to the low to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s at coastal locations. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... VFR is expected to prevail for most through the morning hours, except for periods of MVFR and possibly IFR FG/BR at VQQ. Winds will peak around 10kts once again with a diurnal sea breeze this afternoon and evening, especially by the coast and eastern Duval terminals before easing after sunset tonight. && .MARINE... High pressure will be east northeast of the region through today, then becoming centered more toward the north to northeast Monday through Wednesday. Chances for showers and t`storms gradually increase Monday onward. Rip Currents: Rip current risk remains moderate at all area beaches through the rest of the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Unseasonably Dry Weather Continues At Inland Locations Today. - Low Daytime Dispersion Values Possible on Tuesday for Inland Southeast Georgia. An unseasonably dry air mass will remain in place at inland locations today, where afternoon humidity values will fall to around 30 percent. Widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday, mainly across inland portions of southeast Georgia and along the Interstate 75 corridor. Otherwise, light surface and transport winds today will likely yield poor daytime dispersion values across portions of southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley. Strengthening easterly surface and transport winds in the wake of the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze will create fair to good daytime dispersion values for portions of inland northeast and north central Florida. Similar conditions will prevail on Monday, with elevated mixing heights yielding good daytime dispersion values for inland northeast and north central Florida, with fair values generally forecast elsewhere. Surface and transport winds will shift to northeasterly across our region on Tuesday, with persistent cloud cover likely yielding poor to low daytime dispersion values across southeast Georgia, while fair to good values prevail across northeast and north central Florida. Chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase from south to north later in the upcoming week. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog formation will be possible at inland locations during the predawn and early morning hours on Monday and Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 90 72 88 72 / 0 0 10 10 SSI 87 75 87 76 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 92 72 91 74 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 88 73 89 75 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 93 71 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 93 72 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$