114
FXUS63 KJKL 011115
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
715 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions are expected through Friday. Afternoon heat
  indices are forecast to top 100 degrees in many locations today
  through Friday, with Wednesday and Thursday most likely being
  the hottest days.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible at times from late
  Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026

A mid-level cut-off high remains entrenched over the Lower OH/TN
Valley region today, then flattens somewhat Wednesday as its
center moves to the Southern Appalachians. Thus, hot and dry
conditions are expected through the short-term.

The primary impacts will be a warming trend from today through
Wednesday, with highs in the lower 90s for most locations likely
rising 2 to 3 degrees for Wednesday, while dew points seem likely
to drop a degree or two during this time. Heat index values
primarily in the 90s today are likely to rise to near or slightly
above 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon for many areas.

Fog is expected to develop again tonight in the valleys,
especially the larger creeks and rivers, with lows in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

While an isolated shower cannot be totally ruled out toward the
TN/VA border areas this afternoon, model soundings suggest warmer
air near or just above the 700-hPa level will likely keep any weak
convection capped. Have thus kept PoPs down near 5 percent or
less.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 214 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026

The longwave pattern will feature amplified flow across the
majority of the CONUS through early next week. Troughing will
generally dominate west of the Rockies. A more anomalous ridge,
initially sprawled from Kentucky through the Carolinas into
Thursday, will temporarily dampen and retrograde into the
Plains/Central CONUS. The ridge center will then strengthen once
again as it anchors further southwest over the Central to Southern
Plains to end the period early next week. Guidance does vary from
run to run and model to model over the placement and strength of
this feature by the end of the period. However, this general
pattern will allow for the Ohio and Tennessee valleys to be
subject to northwesterly flow aloft, with periodic shortwaves
working southeast across the region. While model agreement is
solid through Thursday to Friday, detail differences bring more
spread regarding weather specifics by the end of the weekend and
into early next weekend.

Confidence remains high for the hot temperatures to continue across
eastern Kentucky through the end of the work week. Highs will remain
in the mid 90s for most locations on Thursday, potentially again
nearing daily records on Thursday of 96 from 2011 for both JKL
and LOZ. Pending the degree of clouds and convection highs may
near records again on Friday (94 degrees from 2007 for both JKL
and LOZ). With the upper level ridge axis overhead, expect the
associated subsidence to keep a lid on convection and cumulus
through Thursday. The ridge will lose its grip by Friday, with a
surface cold front approaching from the north. Rain chances will
return across the area, mainly in the isolated range, with one
more hot and humid day expected for Friday, as temperatures return
to the lower 90s, coupled with dew points in the lower 70s. As
the boundary sags south over the weekend and a couple of
shortwaves pass, there will be additional chances for convection.
These look to peak diurnally on Saturday, though only in the
isolated to scattered range of coverage, with the front in the
area and a shortwave passing near peak heating. Low level
northwesterly to northeasterly flow moves in behind the front,
putting an end to the 90-degree days for the entire area by
Sunday, with highs returning to more seasonable 80s for early
September. While PoPs look to lower into early next week, the
lack of surface features and the lingering northwest flow aloft
continues to preclude going completely dry for any given period at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026

There are no changes to the forecast and forecast reasoning.

High pressure ridging will dominate through the period. Valley
fog with IFR or worse conditions along rivers, larger creeks, and
area lakes will burn off around 13z. TAF sites should not be
impacted. Diurnal cumulus of 4-5 kft develops after 15z, with an
isolated shower possible near the Virginia/Tennessee borders, but
with VFR conditions remaining prevalent. Otherwise, winds will be
light and variable or generally southwest to west at less than 10
kts through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JKL/JP
AVIATION...CMC