170
FXUS63 KJKL 182038
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
438 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well-above normal temperatures persist into the weekend.

- The heat, humidity, and a nearby frontal boundary could foster
  isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the area at various
  times over the next several days.

- Rain chances increase early next week as the persistent upper
  level ridging breaks down.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 234 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026

Weak anticyclonic northwesterly flow continues aloft on the
northeast periphery of a strong upper high over the Arklatex
region, with an embedded shortwave crossing the area today. By
tomorrow, the upper flow trends more westerly and increasingly
cyclonic ahead of a more developed shortwave which looks to be
over the Bluegrass region at 12z Sunday.

At the surface, a weak cold front will continue to move toward the
area from the north, and may reach to the I-64 corridor early this
evening before reaching near the Mtn Parkway corridor later tonight
into Saturday. This front then lifts north Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night as the aforementioned shortwave approaches from the
west Saturday night.

A subtle shortwave rounding the periphery of the upper ridge
combined will continue to tap into a moist and broadly unstable
environment to fire off scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through the remainder of the afternoon into the
evening. This activity will quickly diminish near and after sunset
this evening. Note that remnant shower and thunderstorm activity may
keep northeastern Kentucky counties more stable and less prone to
such development this afternoon.

With a humid air mass in place and cooler air behind the front,
expect fairly widespread low stratus and/or fog, especially along
and north of the remnant frontal boundary. Ridge-valley splits are
likely to be quite low to nearly non-existent. Fog may be dense
particularly where rain is heaviest in the late afternoon and early
evening.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
again in the afternoon Saturday, with highest chances along the near
the frontal boundary. By late afternoon into the evening, PoPs were
raised higher than the NBM as confidence is increasing that upstream
MCS activity will begin to impact at least parts of eastern
Kentucky. Timing, strength, and location of such activity is in
question but the potential is there for showers and thunderstorms at
anytime through the overnight. Though shear is weak, any clusters of
storms that can organize near or shortly after peak heating will
have the potential to produce gusty winds, with an isolated severe
storm or two possible, though this is low confidence.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 438 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026

The models are in decent agreement with an overall amplified
pattern over the CONUS through the long term portion of the
forecast. On Sunday, a ridge will be centered over the Ark-La-Tex
region, with zonal flow spread from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
through New England. Upstream, a dampening closed low will be
moving through the northern Rockies, with a broad short wave
trough aligned south through the Four Corners region. The models
are in good agreement into early next week with the Ark-La-Tex
ridge continuing to retreat southwest and weaken with time, while
the upper level low/short wave trough translates east from the
central/northern Plains to the Midwest region. The pattern then
turns more blocky through the middle and latter portion of the
work week, with a broader closed low potentially taking shape over
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region, while ridging reasserts
itself across the southern Plains. The closed low will continue to
broaden and expand towards the Eastern Seaboard through the end of
the period. Confidence is lower on the details, as model guidance
typically does not handle larger cutoff evolutions very well.

Sensible weather for eastern Kentucky will feature gradually
relenting heat for the second half of the weekend and early next
week, with high temperatures near and above 90 mainly reserved for
locations near and southwest of I-75. Some convection will also
threaten Sunday and especially on Monday, as another frontal
boundary drops south across the Ohio Valley and likely stalls in
the vicinity of our area. Some stronger storms and locally heavy
rainfall will be possible, although higher PWATs will likely
remain concentrated more so just north of the Ohio River.
Unsettled weather will continue through the middle of the work
week, as the upper level low holds sway aloft. Thankfully, these
lower 500 mb heights will also result in a welcomed cooler air
mass to take hold over the region. Highs will retreat back to the
70s each day from Wednesday through Friday, with rain chances
diminishing Thursday into Friday, as the low gradually pulls to
our east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026

At 17z, remnant shower activity continues on a dissipating trend
from this morning`s shower and thunderstorms. However, scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely redevelop by
20z as strong diurnal heating and a humid atmosphere increases
instability. While most of the daylight hours should remain VFR,
showers and storms could lead to MVFR or lower reductions. Light
and variable winds currently will increase to around 5 kts from
the northwest to northeast as we near peak heating/mixing.
Locally stronger and erratic winds are possible near convection.

Fairly widespread low stratus and/or fog is expected for much of
eastern Kentucky tonight, especially in the wake of today`s
convection, with reductions to MVFR/IFR and perhaps lower are
possible, especially between 06z and 14z, with improvements back
to VFR conditions afterward through the end of the TAF period as
low clouds burn off with daytime heating.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...CMC