557
FXUS63 KJKL 161836
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
236 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather will continue through the first half of the
  week, with showers and thunderstorms expected most days.

- Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms will bring a low-
  end threat of excessive rainfall, with isolated occurrences of
  high water or flash flooding possible through Tuesday.

- Look for temperatures to climb above normal for daytime highs
  late this week into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 235 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025

An upper trough will approach eastern Kentucky slowly from the west
through Tuesday evening, before crossing the area Tuesday night.
Deep southwesterly flow will increase as the trough approaches,
increasing moisture transport across the forecast area. The slow-
moving nature of the trough and the increasing moisture advection
supports an increased excessive rainfall risk, with the Weather
Prediction Center issuing a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for
parts of northeastern and eastern Kentucky for Tuesday into Tuesday
night, with the Marginal Risk continuing through this afternoon
and evening. The increased southwest flow aloft will also support
a marginal risk for severe storms Tuesday into Tuesday night,
with damaging winds the severe threat.

Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be primarily in the 60s, with
any partial clearing allowing for fog formation, especially in the
valleys. Highs Tuesday are forecast to reach the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 525 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2025

The main adjustments to the extended were again to restore some
terrain detail to the NBM temperatures each night after Thursday.
Did also keep a threat of showers and thunderstorms around for
Sunday afternoon with some uncertainty as to when return flow will
be enough for renewed convection on Saturday following a dry
Friday. Confidence in the temperatures for the extended is higher
than normal given the NBM guidance came in near the center point
of the PDF spread.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The period will start with the main prevailing westerlies aloft in
rather zonal flow across the Great Lakes and New England, with
a trough in weaker flow extending southward from the Great Lakes
over the lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a weak and
decaying, nearly stationary frontal boundary is forecast to be
near the northern edge of the JKL forecast area, with a warm and
humid air mass still in place over our area. The upper trough
will weaken as it approaches on Tuesday, but with the diurnal
heating cycle it should bring another increase in convective
precip. The weak upper trough should finally be moving to our
east on Tuesday night, and along with the diurnal loss of
instability, a more pronounced decrease in precip is expected.

Conditions aloft will be more benign on Wednesday, with weak and
relatively flat flow. At the surface, the prior frontal boundary
should be gone, but another cold front will be crossing the
Midwest and bringing us an increase in low level southwesterly
flow as the pressure gradient tightens in front of it. This front
will be supported by a slightly more significant upper level
trough moving east across the CONUS (moving onshore on the West
Coast on Monday). Without any change in our air mass for
Wednesday, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms should
develop, but probably less coverage than on preceding days. The
cold front and its supporting upper trough are forecast to pass
through on Thursday, bringing another more plentiful round of
showers and thunderstorms.

Behind the front, somewhat drier air will arrive for Friday into
Saturday, but the extent of air mass change is still uncertain.
Regardless, it`s looking to be enough to result in mainly dry
weather from Friday through the weekend. This prospect will be
bolstered by the quick eastward departure of the upper trough and
a large ridge/upper high building/developing eastward into the
area. The rising geopotential heights and warming aloft will also
allow daily sun to warm the air mass, with many locations
potentially breaking 90 degrees for highs by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025

Scattered showers and storms have already developed and will peak
in coverage this afternoon into the early evening before waning
again towards midnight. Winds outside of any storms will be light,
around 5 kts, generally out of the southwest through the period.
Fog is likely where any partial clearing occurs tonight,
especially where rain occurs this afternoon and evening, and
should dissipate by ~14z Tuesday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...HAL/GREIF
AVIATION...CMC