446
FXUS63 KJKL 080933
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
433 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow accumulations are forecast on Monday, primarily north of
  the Cumberland River Basin.

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for locations northeast
  of a line from Harlan to Estill County, including the I-64 and
  Mountain Parkway corridors.

- Gusty southwesterly winds between 30 and 40 mph are likely on
  Wednesday.

- The pattern remains active through the end of the work week,
  although confidence remains low in each passing system`s
  precipitation type forecast.

- A much colder airmass is forecast to move into the region for
  the weekend, with widespread low temperatures in the teens
  likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025

Radar echoes are increasing in coverage across eastern Kentucky
early this morning as a cold front sags southeast of the area and
a potent upper level disturbance and shortwave trough (embedded
within broadly cyclonic 500 hPa flow) approach from the Mid-Mississippi
Valley. As the precipitation is developing, temperatures range
from near freezing north of I-64 and over the highest southeastern
mountains to the lower 40s near Lake Cumberland and in the deeper
mainstem Coalfield river valleys. The precipitation has been
primarily in liquid form thus far; however, that will change
heading through the remainder of the morning.

As precipitation increases over the next several hours, northerly
low-level flow will feed colder air into the forecast area
causing the precipitation to transition to all snow from north to
south and higher elevations to lower elevations. The transition
will occur latest, perhaps around noon in the deeper valleys along
the KY/TN border. By that time, the strongest forcing associated
with the 500 hPa disturbance and trough will begin its departure.
Thus, the longest period of snowfall can be expected over the
northeastern half of the forecast area and most notably in and
adjacent to Pike County. In that area, the greatest snowfall
amounts can be expected, ranging from perhaps an inch in the
warmest valleys to as much as 2 or 3 inches in the cooler high
elevation locales. Farther west, from Harlan to Estill counties
and northward, amounts will be generally up to an inch, though
isolated higher amounts cannot be ruled out. In fact, RAP13
soundings do show a very small amount of elevated instability
extending into at least the middle of the DGZ. If any instability
is fully realized, counties along and adjacent to the US-460
Corridor would be favored for briefly moderate to heavy snowfall
rates capable of producing locally higher 1 to 2 inch snowfall
tallies. The snow will taper off through the afternoon, exiting
through Pike County around 00Z as the 500 hPa shortwave trough
axis and trailing vort lobe depart. Low-level moisture gradually
diminishes tonight into Tuesday morning amidst overall weak
height rises as a surface high pressure center scoots eastward
along the Gulf Coast and brushes the JKL CWA. This will bring us a
drier, sunnier, and milder day for Tuesday.

In sensible weather terms, look for a cold light rain to develop
area-wide over the next few hours, gradually transitioning from
north to south through noon. That snow will then taper from west
to east between noon and 7 PM. It will be a cooler day with high
temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 30s in the north to the
lower 40s in the deepest valleys along the TN-KY border. High
temperatures will largely be established this morning. For
tonight, clouds gradually break up across portions of the area
while temperatures sink back into the upper teens north to mid 20s
south. A cool but nicer Tuesday follows with partly to mostly
sunny skies and afternoon highs in the lower to middle 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 420 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025

The long term forecast period continues look quite active here in
Eastern Kentucky. A series of quick-moving, clipper-type systems are
forecast to move across the Greater Ohio River Valley between
Wednesday and Friday. Confidence is increasing that the primary
impacts from the first system on Wednesday will come from gusty
winds, but forecast guidance continues to disagree upon the exact
track/timing/evolution of the ones later in the work week. This
model spread leads to uncertainty in the late week precipitation
type and accumulation forecasts, but guidance collectively points
towards much colder and drier air advecting into the region behind
these systems.

The first clipper system is expected to deepen and dig into the
Southern Great Lakes at the beginning of the period on Tuesday
night. As it does so, an intensifying low level jet will yield
southwesterly winds of 40-50 knots at 925mb by daybreak over the
forecast area on Wednesday morning. BUFKIT momentum transfer model
soundings indicate that these winds are likely to mix down to the
surface after daybreak on Wednesday, but it remains uncertain if
these winds will reach traditional advisory criteria (gusts in
excess of 40mph). The more aggressive GFS soundings yield gusts
between 35 and 40 mph across western portions of the forecast area,
whereas the NAM continues to resolve values closer to the 30 mph
mark. While the EPS Ensemble probabilities for advisory-crtieria
gusts greater than 40mph have continued their recent downward trend,
30-40% probabilities remain in locations along/west of the I-75
corridor and in locations along/north of the I-64 corridor. In
collaboration with neighboring WFOs, forecast wind gusts were
accordingly blended towards the 90th percentile NBM data on
Wednesday, yielding widespread gusts between 30 and 35 knots in
these aforementioned corridors and in high-terrain locations closer
to the Virginia state line. Elsewhere, winds are still forecast to
be breezy, with peak gusts closer to 25 knots. Regardless of exact
magnitude, Wednesday`s winds will likely produce nuisance-level
impacts across the region. Outdoor holiday decorations and temporary
structures like tents could be blown around/away, and interests are
encouraged to take advantage of the drier and milder conditions on
Tuesday night to secure loose objects ahead of time.

The persistence and strength of this southwesterly low-level flow
will yield the warmest MinTs and MaxTs of the forecast period on
Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon, respectively. Increasing
cloud cover will combine with warm air advection to keep
temperatures well above freezing on Tuesday night. Most of the area
will see overnight lows in the mid 30s, giving Wednesday`s highs
(upper 40s/lower 50s) a head start. With temperatures solidly above
freezing, the prefrontal precipitation associated with this first
system will fall as a plain, liquid rain. Once the system`s cold
front passes through, a shift to west-northwesterly winds will
facilitate cold air advection overnight. A changeover/mix with light
snow cannot be ruled out, but the antecedent warmth should keep
precipitation impacts at a minimum.

Additional disturbances are forecast to pass through the mean NW
flow aloft in the latter stages of the work week, and depending upon
their track/evolution, they could produce more substantial winter
precipitation chances. Model spread increases substantially in this
time frame though. The Euro Ensemble`s temperature guidance goes
from 2 degrees of standard deviation on Wednesday night to 7 degrees
on Friday afternoon. Given the uncertainty in the thermal profiles
and individual system evolution, p-types were limited to a rain/snow
mix in this forecast package. The passage of these additional
disturbances will likely culminate in the arrival of a much colder
airmass on Saturday, although there is less of a signal for extreme
cold than there was at this time yesterday. The 00z forecast
guidance suite now relegates the coldest air to north of the Ohio
River on Saturday morning, although 850mb temperatures should still
fall well below freezing on Friday night. This favors snow with any
lingering precip before a drier continental polar airmass settles
into the region for the weekend. Drier conditions are forecast on
Saturday and Sunday as a Canadian high pressure system builds into
the area. Forecast lows are currently in the teens on Saturday,
Sunday, and Monday mornings, with daytime highs struggling to warm
above freezing amidst persistent cold air advection. The CPC
continues to outline a 40-60% chance for much below normal
temperatures in Kentucky on December 15th, but the compounding
forecast uncertainty and aforementioned northward trend with the
coldest air aloft reduces confidence in the idea that temperatures
could dip into the single digits. The average temperatures for mid-
December in Eastern Kentucky are highs in the mid 40s and lows near
freezing. Thus, it will still be noticeably colder than usual at the
end of the long term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025

Primarily VFR was reported at issuance time across eastern KY
though MVFR ceilings are encroaching on locations west of I-75
and north of I-64 behind a cold front. An upper level disturbance
will bring increasing rain coverage initially early this morning
transitioning to a mix of rain and snow and eventually all snow.
Terminals KJKL, KSJS, and KSYM are likely to see the longest
period of snow while KSME and KLOZ will be on the southern fringe.
Ceilings are forecast to fall to IFR or worse from northwest to
southeast between 6 and 12Z. From 12Z to 18Z some gradual
improvements to MVFR should occur in northern and western
locations such as KSYM, KLOZ, and KSME and eventually KJKL and
KSJS between 18 and 00Z. Further improvement to VFR can be
expected north of the Mountain Parkway toward the end of the
period. Winds will be northeast to north at under 10KT through the
day.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-088-104-106>113-118>120.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON