976
FXUS63 KJKL 180009
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
809 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through
  Thursday, with the potential for high water or flash flooding.

- Seasonably warm high temperatures are forecast through most of
  the week, with heat then building during the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025

Some showers and storms are scattered across the CWA this evening,
bringing gusty winds and heavy downpours to some areas. Rain is
expected to continue into the later evening hours, with some hi-
res guidance hinting at a bit of an uptick in coverage. Still
expecting the primary hazards to be heavy rain and gusty winds.
Made some minor adjustments to PoP and sky grids based on recent
radar/satellite trends and hi-res guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 238 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025

An upper level shortwave will move slowly east toward eastern
Kentucky for the remainder of today, crossing the forecast area late
tonight or Wednesday morning as it becomes absorbed by a stronger
wave and associated jet max approaching from the west the remainder
of Wednesday into Thursday.

Scattered convection has developed already across the western and
southwestern parts of the forecast area early this afternoon, with
activity further developing through the afternoon and evening as it
overspreads the remainder of the region. Increased southwesterly
flow is resulting in quicker than initially anticipated movement of
these showers and storms, but is also helping to keep a continuous
supply of moisture into the area supporting additional development
of showers and storms. There is also enough shear (about 25 kts) and
CAPE (MLCAPE values of 1500 J/kg) for there to be some severe threat
until the atmosphere becomes sufficiently overturned this evening.
Given all this, will keep the Flood Watch in effect until 10 PM this
evening.

The mid-level and low-level southwesterly flow will diminish late
tonight into Wednesday morning, but the atmosphere will quickly
destabilize Wednesday morning into the afternoon with even modest
heating, and convection will likely increase in coverage through the
afternoon and persist into the evening and overnight. With
increasing shear over eastern Kentucky Wednesday into Wednesday
night ahead of an approaching cold front, there will be some severe
weather threat, particularly from any upstream MCS activity that can
hold together as it moves into the forecast area. However, the
limiting factor will likely be instability as the atmosphere is
likely to remain convectively overturned from previous convection,
particularly Wednesday evening into the overnight. Damaging winds
will be the primary severe weather threat given the long, skinny
CAPE profiles.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 626 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025

A progressive upper level trough and its associated surface cold
front will be approaching from the northwest at the start of the
period. An area of showers and possibly thunderstorms is likely to
be ongoing over the area. However, there is still some question
concerning timing of the front and precip. The highest POP will be
in southeast KY where fropa will be latest. Most precip will be
gone by night, and high pressure will then build in from the west
with a somewhat drier air mass as we end the week. However, the
upper trough will continue to be progressive, and upper level
ridging is expected to build in from the west and then park itself
over the central Appalachians as a strong upper high early in the
new week. This will result in building heat and mainly dry
weather. Gradual moisture return and air mass modification could
be enough to fuel a bit of convective precip, mainly in the
afternoon hours on Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025

Scattered storms dot the CWA this evening and will bring sub-VFR
conditions to any TAF sites they impact. Expect to see a
diminishing trend early tomorrow morning though. Late tonight, low
clouds start to make their way into the CWA bringing IFR to
possibly low IFR ceilings. Again, this is expected to improve in
the morning hours tomorrow. Winds outside of any storms are
expected to be around 5 kts out of the southwest. After a brief
lull in the morning, shower and storm activity peaks for a bit in
the afternoon tomorrow before diminishing again heading into the
evening, with prevailing winds out of the southwest peaking
between 5 and 10 kts..

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-104-106>120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...HAS
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAS