987
FXUS63 KJKL 171838
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
238 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through
  Thursday, with the potential for high water or flash flooding.

- Seasonably warm high temperatures are forecast through most of
  the week, with heat then building during the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 238 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025

An upper level shortwave will move slowly east toward eastern
Kentucky for the remainder of today, crossing the forecast area late
tonight or Wednesday morning as it becomes absorbed by a stronger
wave and associated jet max approaching from the west the remainder
of Wednesday into Thursday.

Scattered convection has developed already across the western and
southwestern parts of the forecast area early this afternoon, with
activity further developing through the afternoon and evening as it
overspreads the remainder of the region. Increased southwesterly
flow is resulting in quicker than initially anticipated movement of
these showers and storms, but is also helping to keep a continuous
supply of moisture into the area supporting additional development
of showers and storms. There is also enough shear (about 25 kts) and
CAPE (MLCAPE values of 1500 J/kg) for there to be some severe threat
until the atmosphere becomes sufficiently overturned this evening.
Given all this, will keep the Flood Watch in effect until 10 PM this
evening.

The mid-level and low-level southwesterly flow will diminish late
tonight into Wednesday morning, but the atmosphere will quickly
destabilize Wednesday morning into the afternoon with even modest
heating, and convection will likely increase in coverage through the
afternoon and persist into the evening and overnight. With
increasing shear over eastern Kentucky Wednesday into Wednesday
night ahead of an approaching cold front, there will be some severe
weather threat, particularly from any upstream MCS activity that can
hold together as it moves into the forecast area. However, the
limiting factor will likely be instability as the atmosphere is
likely to remain convectively overturned from previous convection,
particularly Wednesday evening into the overnight. Damaging winds
will be the primary severe weather threat given the long, skinny
CAPE profiles.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 427 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025

The forecast period begins with the area under the regime of the
warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. The parent surface
low is forecast to be moving across the Great Lakes with the
trailing cold front extending southwest down to the high plains of
western Texas. Through the day Thursday, the cold front will slowly
approach the CWA before crossing through the CWA late Thursday night
into early Friday morning. Along and head of the front, showers and
thunderstorms will be likely. Some storms, with this front could
push severe limits but widespread severe weather isn`t expected as
favorable shear isn`t in place and storms won`t be able to grow and
strengthen. Once the front crosses the CWA, surface high pressure
will build into the region for Friday.

Surface high pressure will build into the region for Friday and will
persist through much of the weekend. Accompanying surface high
pressure, more summer-like temperatures are expected through the
weekend and into early next week. Highs are forecast to start in the
mid-80s for Friday before climbing into the 90s for Saturday and
remaining in the low to mid-90s through the end of the forecast
period. Some relief from the heat is expected beginning Sunday
afternoon as the potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms
return each day.

In summary, a stormy and rainy start to the forecast period will
exist before surface high pressure ushers summertime to eastern
Kentucky. Highs will start in the mid-80s for Friday before
starting to climb into the low to mid-90s from Saturday through the
rest of the period. Overnight lows will remain in the upper-60s to
lower-70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will bring
frequent sub-VFR reductions through the TAF period, but will
generally be on a diminishing trend from 00z to 06z this evening.
Any partial clearing is likely to result in fog and low stratus
development this evening into Wednesday morning, especially in
the river valleys. Showers and thunderstorms then increase in
coverage again toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-104-106>120.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC