161
FXUS63 KJKL 070920
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
520 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring an area of showers and perhaps some
  thunderstorms to the area today and tonight, followed by cooler
  weather to finish the week.

- There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall today through
  tonight, with isolated amounts of 2 to 3 inches of rain
  possible if storms move repeatedly over the same areas.

- Cooler and dry conditions are expected from Wednesday afternoon
  through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 455 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

08Z sfc analysis shows a wave of low pressure riding northeast
along a cold front pressing into northern Kentucky. This has
pumped higher moisture into the state with generally light showers
strafing parts of northeast Kentucky. Under plenty of clouds,
temperatures are fairly uniform across the area - in the mid to
upper 60s, for most. Meanwhile, amid light southeasterly winds,
dewpoints are running in the low to mid 60s. There has also been
some areas of fog accompanying the light rain in the I-64
corridor.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in pretty
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict deep toughing swinging south through the
Great Lakes and across the Ohio Valley today and tonight. This
will push decent height falls through Kentucky - particularly
tonight - along with a mid-level impulse pressing past the JKL CWA
on Wednesday morning. Any trailing energy then stays suppressed
to the south and west later in the day while the core of the
trough departs to the northeast. A passing 3h jet streak will
accompany the trough, as well, when it moves through Ohio later
today and tonight adding some enhancement to the lift. The model
spread is rather small concerning these key features supporting
using the NBM as the starting point of the grids with minimal
adjustments needed - mainly just to include the latest PoP
guidance from the CAMs consensus through Wednesday afternoon.

Sensible weather features a cold front passing through eastern
Kentucky by tonight bringing a cooler and drier air mass to
the state by the end of the short term forecast period. This
boundary will activate well above normal PW air for rounds of
showers and potential thunderstorms today into this evening.
Instability will be a limiting factor with thickening clouds
across the area today thanks to deep moisture in place. The
models have come into pretty good agreement on the heaviest rains
and training staying along or north of the I-64 corridor - with a
rather narrow swath of 1-3 inches - showing up in the guidance.
This area will need to be watched for potential training and
localized excessive rainfall. For the most part, this rain will
be beneficial for the entire area as we head into fire weather
season and the leaves start to pile up in the forests. Cooler
temperatures will also be a noticeable trait of this transition
with highs only in the low 70s today and stuck in the 60s on
Wednesday as low clouds linger. The low clouds and diminishing
showers tonight will make for one last sesasonably mild night of
this stretch. The bulk of the heavy rain threat occurs through the
day, today, with just leftover showers in the wake of the front
around in the southeast this evening. Will continue to highlight
the limited potential for isolated flooding in the HWO, on social
media, and via a partner email.

The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
adding in the higher resolution details from the CAMs for the
PoPs, thunder chances, and timing. Temperatures were kept fairly
uniform through Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 520 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

The main changes to the extended forecast this morning were to
enhance the terrain based differences of a ridge to valley split
for temperatures each night through next weekend, along with a
touch of extra drying each afternoon. PoPs are looking quite
limited during the latter part of the work week and into the
weekend.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Showers/thunderstorms end late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning as a cold front and upper trough move across from the west
and northwest. This will leave us with west-northwest flow aloft
and surface high pressure passing east over the Great Lakes on
Wednesday, sending us noticeably cooler and drier air.

Multiple shortwave troughs are expected to move southeast in the
flow aloft late in the week and consolidate into a complex upper
low next weekend somewhere over the Central Appalachians and Mid-
Atlantic regions, with the ECMWF and GFS in generally good
agreement. Along with this, there is development of a coastal
surface low that moves up the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coastline
while remaining offshore, perhaps taking on some subtropical
characteristics. Regardless, the new scenario favors precip being
confined to areas to our east. Thus, after Wednesday morning PoPs
remain generally at or below 10 percent through the duration of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

VFR conditions are prevailing away from KSYM and will hold for
most of the night before a cold front brings lowering CIGS. CIGS
and VSBY will fall into a combination of MVFR and then IFR/VLIFR
by midday. Along with decreased CIGS/VSBY, showers and isolated
thunderstorms increase in coverage after 10Z persist through most
of the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be largely light
and variable but convection could bring gusty and erratic flow.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC/GREIF
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF