892
FXUS63 KJKL 081940
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
340 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will inch higher through midweek, with humidity
  also climbing a bit into Wednesday and Thursday.

- A cold front moving into the area late in the week will give us
  our next expectation of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday
  or Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026

As of 1930Z, sprinkles and light showers were observed across
southwestern portions of the CWA. Analysis indicates these
showers were driven by weak isentropic upglide near the
850-mb level, though the signal was subtle. Rain activity is
expected to taper off over the next few hours due to a lack
of sufficient forcing and upward ascent. Model soundings
continue to show steep lapse rates and a dry layer within
the lowest 3 km, but deeper convection remains capped by a
strong inversion near 650 mb. Skies should clear out this
evening, leading to decoupled valleys and temperatures
cooling into the low to mid 60s in valleys, while remaining
elevated in the upper 60s to near 70 along ridge tops.
Patchy river valley fog may develop again tonight before
mixing out Wednesday morning.

Wednesday largely remains quiet under high pressure positioned
southeast of the Commonwealth. Warm temperatures in the upper
80s to low 90s are expected with fair skies and dew points in
the upper 60s to low 70s. A strong low pressure system over
Southern Canada will feature a trailing cold front that will
gradually propagate south and east from the Upper Midwest into
the Ohio Valley early Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms
preceding the cold front are expected to work into eastern
Kentucky after midnight Wednesday night, spreading southeast
across the area in the predawn hours Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026

The extended portion of the forecast remains on track with a
fairly strong 5h trough working through the Ohio Valley to close
out the work week as the ridge retreats further to the south. The
trough`s associated sfc front may be wet enough to support
excessive rainfall for parts of the area on Thursday and Friday.
WPC has eastern Kentucky in a Day 3 and Day 4 Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall. We will need to keep tracking this heavy rain
potential during an otherwise benign extended forecast period.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The period begins Wednesday morning with stout ridging over the
southern half of the CONUS, while an active zonal jet stream remains
across the far northern CONUS. The ridge will progressively get
shunted south and east through Thursday and into Friday as a
progressive shortwave pushes a cold front southeast into the
southern Ohio Valley. However, it appears that the shortwave may
outrun the surface front, leaving it to decay over or north of
eastern Kentucky into the weekend as mid-level ridging builds back
over the region.

The NBM was kept for the extended period, with the exception of
adding modest ridge-valley splits for Wednesday night into Thursday
morning ahead of the approaching system. Considerable uncertainty
arises in the greater synoptic pattern as the coming weekend
progresses into next week, particularly concerning the evolution of
a cut-off upper level low over the Pacific Northwest this weekend,
with downstream implications over the Midwest and Ohio Valley as
ensemble systems become increasingly out of phase with each other.

WPC has introduced a Slight Risk ERO for Thursday into Thursday
night across much of WV and into northeastern and far eastern
Kentucky. This is as the approaching system Thursday into Friday
will be intruding into a warm and humid environment characterized by
PWs peaking in the 90th-95th percentile (according to the LREF)
across much of the area northwest of the Cumberland Mountains. The
orientation of the front, the perpendicular upslope wind component
on the backside of the front, and the timing of arrival of heavy
rain and/or thunderstorms at or near peak heating all suggest some
potential for flash flooding along the windward side of the
Appalachians.

PoPs are continued into the weekend as it appears the front decays
over the region to end the week, with the potential for additional
shortwaves and possibly weak surface lows to initiate at least
spotty showers and thunderstorms across the area before mid-level
heights likely rise Sunday into Monday of next week.

There is high confidence that temperatures remain above normal
through the period, with the coolest day (and closest to normal
readings) coming Friday with the upper trough overhead. Highs will
generally be in the mid to upper 80s with lows mostly in the 60s,
though a few lower 70s readings are possible Wednesday night in the
warm humid environment ahead of the approaching front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with
mid- to high-level clouds over the area expected to
dissipate heading into the evening. Some isolated
showers or sprinkles should remain brief this afternoon.
Otherwise, light and variable winds and clearing skies
are expected tonight. Some patchy river valley fog may
develop late tonight, but at present is not expected to
cause impacts to the TAF locations. Following morning
mixing Wednesday, southwest winds may gust up to
15-20 kts at IOB, SYM, LOZ, and SME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC/GREIF
AVIATION...GINNICK