494
FXUS63 KJKL 201119
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
619 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds and drizzle are likely to linger into the afternoon
  across much of eastern and northeastern Kentucky today.

- Active weather continues through the end of the work week, with
  a seasonably mild and moist airmass in place.

- Another system will bring rain to the area late Monday into the
  middle of next week.

- A strong cold front is expected at the end of the period, on or
  around Thanksgiving Day, and is likely to bring much lower
  temperatures to eastern Kentucky to end next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 531 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025

Pre-dawn update is out with not much in the way of change to the
forecast. Hourly temperatures were updated by using the latest
observations as the initialization and then interpolating into the
morning package hourly temperature forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 233 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025

Stratus is likely to remain across much of eastern and
northeastern Kentucky today as warm and dry mid-level air remains
above a relatively shallow cool and humid layer trapped near the
surface. This pattern will break down later today, as the mid-
levels will moisten with the approach of an ejecting disturbance
from a large upper low over the southwestern CONUS and
northwestern Mexico. This will also allow for the stationary front
over the Tennessee Valley to begin moving north as a warm front
by Friday. Given NBM guidance has been way too warm across the CWA
the last couple of days, especially the northern and northeastern
parts of the forecast area, we have thus lowered temperatures
once again for today, with temperatures remaining fairly steady
through the overnight tonight across the north as weak warm
advection counters the typical diurnal temperature trend.

Extensive cloud cover will across the region from the west later
today into tonight, with rain overspreading the region to the
north and northeast of the stationary/warm front during the
afternoon and evening hours. Increasing instability, though weak,
will move into the region with the passage of the warm front
Friday, allowing for the chance for some heavier showers and some
thunderstorm activity for the second half of the day. However, no
significant flooding concerns are expected with total QPF with
this upcoming system still in the 0.6 to 1.2 inch range.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025

The period begins Friday night with the area within the warm
sector of an approaching mid-level disturbance and cold front.
Thus, high PoPs are expected until cold frontal passage Saturday
morning, with decreasing PoPs favoring the typical cold advection
upslope areas across southeastern Kentucky Saturday afternoon.
Saturday night through the first half of Monday, the NBM has
begun trending cooler as models and their ensemble systems have
come into better agreement that this period will see relatively
dry conditions with decreased cloud cover and light winds.

The next system arrives late Monday into Tuesday with fairly high
confidence, though there are discrepancies in the depiction of
the evolution of the mid-level pattern between the models,
especially heading into the middle of next week and the busiest
part of the holiday travel period. Thus, PoPs have been raised by
around 20 percent on average compared to previous package from
Monday night through Tuesday night, with considerable uncertainty
remaining for Wednesday into Wednesday night based on if the upper
trough and surface front completely clear the area to the east or
if they linger back far enough west over the Ohio Valley for
another round of light precipitation before clearing the area.

A much cooler, if not downright cold, pattern appears likely
behind the expected cold front passage at the very end of the
long-term period or just beyond beginning next Thursday, so these
trends will continue to be monitored over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025

Poor conditions are forecast into the day Thursday-- generally
IFR or worse. Improvement to VFR is possible for a time late in
the day or in the evening. However, showers and deteriorating
conditions are forecast to arrive again from the west by the end
of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC/HAL