587
FXUS63 KJKL 102032
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
332 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The coldest airmass so far this season will remain over the area
  through early Tuesday morning.

- The first snow the event of the season will affect the region
  into tonight. Rounds of snow showers will result in mainly light
  accumulations, especially on grassy and elevated surfaces.

- Locations at 2000 feet and above near VA should experience more
  sustained travel impacts. However, rounds of snow showers will
  lead to some accumulations and reduced visibilities areawide.

- Temperatures moderate back to near normal levels by Wednesday,
  then rise to above normal levels by the end of the week and
  lasting at least through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025

A powerful vort max resides over southern and eastern Kentucky and
much of middle Tennessee. Not surprisingly, some of the more intense
snow showers resulting in quick snow accumulations on roads have
occurred across the southern parts of the forecast area, while with
most other areas the roads are staying just wet. A trailing weaker
vort max moving south-southeast from western Ohio through West
Virginia and eastern Kentucky will likely represent the end of any
measurable precipitation this evening, with flurries lingering in
upslope areas through the overnight. The air mass overall is fairly
dry, which should mean fairly decent evaporation rates for any
precipitation remaining on roads. Nevertheless, temperatures in the
upper teens to lower 20s tonight will allow for a few slick spots to
develop on untreated roads, especially for those areas who
overperform with today`s snow.

Northwesterly flow becomes more west-northwesterly with time through
the day Tuesday, with a mostly dry disturbance approaching the area
within the still active jet stream in the afternoon and then passing
across the area Tuesday night. This will promote a warm advection
regime with a warm frontal passage across the area Tuesday evening
into the overnight. A few sprinkles are possible in the afternoon
Tuesday ahead of this warm front, mainly across the north.

Temperatures will moderate significantly with a warm advection
regime replacing an arctic air mass currently in place over eastern
Kentucky. Highs rebound into the 40s Tuesday, and then fall only
back into the lower to mid 30s for most areas Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025

The models are in general agreement with an amplified long wave
pattern to continue across the CONUS. Troughing will start out
entrenched from north central Canada through the western Atlantic.
Further west, ridging will be aligned from British Columbia through
the Four Corners region. Another deeper trough will be positioned
across the eastern Pacific. Through the end of the work week, the
western ridge axis will gradually move eastward, becoming positioned
near the Mississippi Valley by late Friday. Meanwhile, the
eastern Pacific trough will move in across the West, while
troughing only slowly moves away from the Eastern Seaboard. Model
agreement really breaks down this weekend and into early next week
regarding the evolution of the trough as it crosses the Rockies
and eventually the Plains, most likely in a split-flow fashion.

Eastern Kentucky will be under the influence of mainly increasing
500 mb heights through Friday, thanks to the upstream ridge moving
in. This will allow for moderating temperatures, with highs starting
out in the mid to upper 50s Wednesday and Thursday, and then lower
to middle 60s Friday. Lows will modify from the 30s to the 40s,
with more low to moderate (5-8 degrees) ridge/valley temperature
differences. The next small chance of precipitation (20%) will
arrive late Friday into Friday night, as a warm front lifts
northeast across the area. Better rain chances (40-50%) move in
late this weekend and into early next week, as the main trough
axis approaches the region. Again, there is lower confidence on
the details this far out, given the split energy and timing
differences. As such, will not stray from the blended guidance,
which allows for more of a prolonged period of precipitation
chances. Temperatures will average above normal (5-10 degrees)
this weekend, with highs in the mid to upper 60s, and lows in the
40s and 50s. Highs on Monday will retreat back to the mid and
upper 50s following a cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025

Along and south of JKL, snow showers through ~00z this evening
will result in sharp reductions to MVFR or lower, with a low
potential for a lightning strike or two in some activity in the
strongest shower(s), with prevailing conditions possibly dipping
into the MVFR category for up to a a couple of hours late this
afternoon. Along and especially north and northeast of JKL, a more
steady light snow is expected with more persistent reductions to
MVFR or IFR conditions as the afternoon progresses. As 00Z
approaches, improvements to VFR should occur in more northern
locations with improvements to VFR near the VA border through
around 03Z as the upper low departs departs and snow showers taper
to light snow showers and flurries and then end in most places
toward 06Z. West to northwest winds will generally be around 10KT
with gusts as high as 20 to 25KT, especially in the heavier snow
showers. Winds will tend to remain northwest to westerly from 00Z
to 12Z, but decrease to around 5KT with gusts diminishing after
sunset.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106-108-111-114.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for KYZ085-
086-107-109-110-112-113-115>117-119.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for KYZ087-088-
118-120.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...CMC