084
FXUS63 KJKL 260330 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1130 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure bringS dry and cool early autumn weather to
  eastern Kentucky into early next week.

- Warmer temperatures make a comeback late next week, along with
  our next reasonable potential for rain.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids -
beefing up sky cover for much of the night in the northern parts
of the area. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 725 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a large area of high pressure centered
over the Great Lakes in control of the weather over eastern
Kentucky this evening. This is helping to settle the winds and
keep skies mostly clear. Currently, temperatures are running in
the mid 50s for some of the sheltered northeast valleys to the
lower 70s in the open areas of the southwest. Meanwhile, amid
northeast winds of 5 mph or less, dewpoints are generally in the
mid 40s to mid 50s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 339 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026

A large, deep, stacked low is centered well offshore of VA late
today. A blocking high is to the north, and the storm system is
moving only very slowly northward. Strong meridional upper level
ridging is laid out over the length of the Mississippi River
Valley. In between the low and the high/ridging, our flow up
through the troposphere has largely a northerly component and is
moving mainly dry air over our area, with mainly cold air
advection.

The scenario will change very little during the short term period.
The low should make it to a position near the NJ coast by Sunday
morning, but our general synoptic scenario will remain the same.
With the exception of a few high clouds at times, our skies should
remain clear. This will allow for good radiational cooling each
night, with lows mostly in the 40s (coldest in valleys). High
Saturday will be similar to Friday, mostly in the lower to mid
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026

Eastern Kentucky will begin the period on the far outer fringes
of a large mature low pressure system along or just offshore the
Mid-Atlantic seaboard, with surface high pressure ridging
extending south from a surface high in southern Canada. This
system will eventually lift northeast early next week, with weak
ridging building over the area. Complexity in the forecast
increases significantly toward the latter half of next week as
models struggle on the timing, location, and strength of the next
upper low/trough that moves into the middle of the country, which
will eventually bring the next chance of precipitation.

Confidence is high in the temperature trends through the long term
period, with cool and dry conditions through this weekend giving way
to an increasingly warmer and more humid regime as the upper flow
transitions from a northerly to more southwesterly direction. By the
middle of next week, highs should be returning to above normal,
though to what degree is somewhat uncertain, with NBM deterministic
values in the upper 70s to lower 80s for Wednesday and Thursday,
which is on the lower end of the probabilistic envelope. Lows will
also increase from the 40s for lows this weekend to the 50s and 60s
by the second half of next week. Confidence is also low as to the
timing of arrival of possible precipitation associated with the next
system moving into the center of the country next week, with low
chances (generally around 15 to 25 percent) introduced to the grids
beginning Wednesday night and gradually increasing (to 15 to
35 percent) through the end of the long-term period Thursday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026

Valley fog is expected to develop late tonight and last into
Saturday morning before dissipating. It will bring localized IFR
or worse conditions, but is not expected to affect any of the TAF
sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds will hold through
the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF