243
FXUS63 KJKL 082229
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
629 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cool and dry weather pattern is expected to continue through
  the weekend and into early next week. Expect sunny days and
  clear nights with seasonable temperatures.

- Thursday night will be the coldest night of the week.
  Temperatures in some of the most sheltered valleys could fall
  into the mid-30s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025

The forecast is on track. There are no changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 304 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025

Low clouds continue to erode southeastward into the upper reaches
of the Cumberland River Basin, as a brisk north to northeasterly
breeze ushers in a drier airmass, leaving mostly sunny skies and
fair-weather cumulus across the remainder of the area.
Temperatures at the lower elevations are quite pleasant, ranging
in the 60s to lower 70s, coolest in areas where clouds have been
most persistent. The latest analysis shows a 500 hPa trough axis
extending from Eastern Canada southward into the Central and
Southern Appalachians, while broad 500 hPa ridging is in place
over the central CONUS. At the surface, an expansive surface
highwith a ~1032 mb center over northern Wisconsinis exerting
its influence over the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and adjoining
regions.

Over eastern Kentucky, 500 hPa heights will rise through Thursday
as the ridging slowly propagates eastward. Heights will then
become nearly neutral or fall slightly on Thursday night as a
potent northern stream disturbance dives southeast toward the
Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure sinks southeastward to
over Southern New England by the end of the period. The surface
pressure gradient and low-level CAA will linger tonight, keeping
any radiational fog formation quite limited, even in the sheltered
mainstem river valleys. That gradient relaxes more by Thursday
night, permitting more extensive and deeper fog formation in the
favored valley locales. Temperatures will be quite cool compared
to recent weeks, but still seasonable for heading into mid-
October.

In terms of sensible weather, sunshine should develop by 5 PM in
locations where it has not yet done so. It will be mild with highs
primarily in the upper 60s to lower 70s, though cloudier
locations may struggle to out of the mid 60s. For tonight, expect
clear skies and a continued weak north to northeast breeze,
though the more sheltered valleys are favored to mostly decouple.
Temperatures are forecast to fall into the low to mid-40s. Some
fog is possible in the most fog-prone valley locales. Looking
ahead to Thursday, it will be sunny and cool, with high
temperatures mainly in the 65-70F range. On Thursday night, clear
skies persist aside from the fog formation in the mainstem river
valleys. Lows are forecast to be even cooler, ranging from the
upper 30s to low 40s in most locales. A few of the coldest
sheltered hollows could flirt with the mid-30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025

An upper low over southern Georgia Friday morning will serve to
quickly develop a strong surface low off the Southeast coastline
Friday. This cyclone will then move up the East Coast and combine
with an upper low diving southeast across the Great Lakes region
into the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. This cyclone then moves off the
Mid-Atlantic coast through the first half of next week, while
ridging builds north-northeastward through the Mississippi and Lower
Ohio Valleys.

Though differing in the exact details, the global ensemble solutions
generally keep precipitation out of the forecast area with weak or
northwesterly flow aloft through the period, with temperatures
slowly warming through the period from below normal to near normal
or slightly above normal by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025

Cool and dry air filtering in behind a cold front continues to
erode the low cloud deck from earlier in the day. The back edge
of the MVFR cloud deck stretches PBX to SME, southward, at TAF
issuance and will continue eroding southeastward through 21Z.
Behind that cloud deck, expect just a few fair weather cu with
bases in the 3-5k ft AGL range. Valley fog should be limited
tonight with a larger dewpoint depression keeping the fog out of
the TAF terminals. Winds will be north to northeast with speeds
up to 10 kts possible before weakening tonight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GEERTSON