756
FXUS63 KJKL 032015
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
315 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier and cold weather will persist through Thursday.

- Wintery precipitation is possible late Thursday night into
  Friday morning, with the greatest chances in Southeastern
  Kentucky.

- The pattern will remain active through early next week, although
  long term forecast confidence is low.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025

Extensive low clouds remain across the Commonwealth and much of
KY. A few higher elevations in the Cumberland plateau and Southern
Appalachians are above the cloud level. Guidance has moisture
decreasing as the afternoon progresses and there may be a few
hour window of scattering out before mid level clouds increase
ahead of the next system. Opted to increase sky cover a bit and
lower high temperatures a couple of degrees on average for today.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025

Under extensive cloud cover, temperatures did not bottom out
quite as low as was forecast, and the starting point for this
morning has been adjusted upward. It`s also observed that the
cloud layer has become is so thin that high terrain is poking
above it now. Black Mtn. is seen with a tiny break in clouds in
satellite imagery, as is some of the high terrain in WV. It will
be interesting to see what transpires as the overcast erodes, and
it is probably safe to say that it will differ from what is
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025

Shallow low level moisture lingers in the wake of Monday night`s
weather system, with cold air advection in upslope flow helping to
keep it trapped beneath an inversion up to this point. This has
kept low clouds socked in. The clouds extend all the way west to
IL, MO, and AR early this morning, near the surface ridge. The
high will shift east today and cold air advection will ease. Along
with minimal heating (albeit just about the weakest solar
insolation of the year), this should finally allow clouds to break
up. However, timing is still very uncertain. Have used a gradual
decrease in clouds due to the uncertainty in timing, when in
reality it may be much more abrupt whenever it happens in any
given location.

Assuming clearing happens by tonight, the night should start out
relatively clear, along with light winds as the high center passes
over. This should allow a quick drop in temperatures after sunset.
A large lobe rotating through a mean upper trough over eastern
Canada will support another cold front to drop south and approach
us from the north overnight, reaching near the Ohio River by dawn.
Clouds will increase overnight as the front nears, slowing our
drop in temperatures.

Some light precip could occur to our north with the front.
However, the front will be running out of available moisture as it
drops south, and we shouldn`t see anything more than clouds with
its passage on Thursday. The clouds and cold fropa will hold max
temps down.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025

The forecast period begins with a surface low-pressure system
tracking northeastward from the Tennessee Valley, traversing the
CWA. This system straddles the short-term and extended forecast
periods. We have opted to segment the discussion based on the
phasing transition from wintry precipitation to all rain.
Consequently, this discussion begins Friday afternoon, where warm
frontal passage and diurnal warming will support precipitation
primarily as rain. The system is forecast to exit the region by late
Saturday morning. However, a brief period of wintry mix remains
plausible on the back side of the departing system as cold-air
advection returns to the region. Surface high pressure builds into
the area following the systems departure. Nevertheless, upper-level
southwesterly flow will maintain relatively mild temperatures for
Saturday.

An upper-level trough stalled over the Hudson Bay area and
an impinging shortwave trough moving off the Rocky Mountains will
interact beginning Sunday, driving the weather pattern from Sunday
through late Monday. The first of these perturbations is associated
with a dry cold front extending from the Hudson Bay trough. A key
feature is the zone of baroclinicity that the secondary low-pressure
system, originating from the Rockies, can track along. This
secondary system is more moisture-rich and should yield higher
probabilities for rain and snow beginning early Sunday morning and
persisting through late Monday morning. Precipitation type (p-type)
will be temperature-driven, with daytime temperatures generally
supporting rain, while overnight temperatures will favor a wintry
mix or snow. Model confidence is low regarding thermal profiles and
the precise track of the low-pressure center. Therefore, little
confidence is placed in deterministic snowfall totals. Behind this
system, surface high pressure will rebuild across the area for
Tuesday, but model trends indicate another system approaching by the
end of the forecast period.

The period will be characterized by multiple synoptic disturbances
traversing the area, bringing an array of precipitation types
followed by interludes of high pressure. Temperatures are generally
forecast to remain below average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025

With high pressure and upper ridging passing through the region,
low clouds were mixing out nearer to the TN and VA borders at
issuance time, but MVFR lingered at the TAFS sites. Through the
next 2 to 5 hours, the low clouds should continue to mix
out/erode to the north and west with improvements through the MVFR
range and into the VFR range for all the TAF sites. VFR should
then prevail in most areas until about 03Z when clouds may begin
to spread back into the area as a cold front approaches and a
general trend toward MVFR for all TAF sites that continues into
the last 6 hours of the period. The more southern TAF sites, KLOZ
and KSME, and areas nearer to the VA border and TN border may
largely remain or return to VFR during the last 6 hours of the
period. Light west to southwest winds will prevail during the
first 18 hours of the period and then a gradual shift to the west
and then northwest at around 5KT to end the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP