339
FXUS63 KJKL 072029
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
329 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will arrive this afternoon and
  evening. A few storms could be strong to severe, especially west
  of Interstate 75.

- The primary threats are damaging winds and hail up to quarter
  sized, though a brief tornado or isolated hail cannot be ruled
  out.

- It will be warm and gusty today before the storms, with southwesterly
  wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph anticipated.

- The coldest air so far this Fall arrives to end the weekend.

- The first snowflakes of the season are possible Sunday night
  into Monday. Light snow accumulations are possible, mainly on
  above 2000 feet near the Virginia border.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1111 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025

Late morning obs are blended into the forecast and the POP for
this afternoon and tonight has been updated with recent model
runs, but there are no substantive changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 545 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025

Early this morning, an upper level low was centered over the
Hudson Bay vicinity with an upper trough south over the Central
Conus/MS Valley vicinity. A shortwave extended from the western
Great Lakes to the mid MS Valley while another was upstream from
the upper MS Valley to the Central Plains. Some shortwave
ridging extended across parts of the Rockies. Further upstream, a
series of shortwaves were moving from the Pacific across BC and
the Northwest Conus with one over the Northern Rockies vicinity at
this point. At the surface, an area of low pressure was centered
in the Up of MI Vicinity with the cold front trailing to the mid
MS Valley to Southern Plains. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure was
centered east of the eastern seaboard. In between these systems
the pressure gradient has increased overnight and after lows in
the 30s and 40s for most locations, some areas have become more
mixed on ridgetops and in the more western locations with
temperature shaving climbed into the 50s. However, more sheltered
valleys in the south and east have temperatures currently in the
30s with some areas still below freezing.

Moisture will increase today as the initial shortwave passes
north of eastern KY through early afternoon and the next one
upstream nears the Lower OH Valley. This should result in a fairly
tight pressure gradient today with some stronger winds aloft as
well. The sfc low should track into Ontario today and reach Quebec
this evening with the trailing cold front moving into the Lower
OH Valley and KY this afternoon and moving across eastern and
south central parts of the region this evening, generally after
sunset. This system will have some shear to work with bulk shear
reaching as high as 40 to 55KT or more but CAPE will be very
limited, on the order of 200 to 500 J/kg MUCAPE or less per recent
RAP runs. Prefrontal showers and perhaps some storms are
expected. A couple of stronger storms may be able to mix down some
higher momentum from aloft. Any storms that manage to rotate
generally along or west of I-75 could produce some hail perhaps up
to quarter size or perhaps a brief spin up. However, strong to
damaging wind gusts appear to be the more probable hazard. Even
outside of storms, gusts on the order of 25 to 35 mph are
anticipated as some higher momentum should mix to the surface
once the nocturnal inversion lifts and dissipates.

The shortwave moves east across the Commonwealth this evening
into the overnight, with the cold front preceding it. Chances for
showers will diminish once the front passes as moisture decreases.
Shortwave ridging and sfc high pressure dominate on Saturday in
between systems. The next series of shortwaves will begin to
approach the Commonwealth late on Saturday and will result in a
significantly colder temperatures to end the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 327 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025

As a cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms pushes through
Eastern Kentucky Friday afternoon, the next system begins to take
shape over the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level low is modeled to
spill out of the Pac. NW deepening into a large trough over the
Central Plains by Saturday. While strong ridging builds over the
West Coast, multiple shortwave impulses re-enforce cold air working
down from Hudson Bay, Canada.

By Sunday morning, rain showers are expected to move through the
area as part of the first shortwave. Diurnal spread is expected to
be minimal with temperatures starting in the upper 40s in the
morning warming into the upper 40s to low 50s by early afternoon.
After-which, cold air is re-enforced heading into the later
afternoon, evening, and overnight. P-type will likely change over
from rain to snow after sunset, becoming all snow overnight into
Monday morning. Looking at the Grand Ensemble for snowfall Sunday
through Monday there remains a 40-60% chance the area receives up to
0.5 inches of snowfall. While the probability of exceeding 1 inch of
snow remains greatest (50-60% chance) around the Black Mountain area
and vicinity in the highest terrain along the Virginia boarder. Low
temperatures Sunday night will be the coldest we`ve seen in some
time, in the low to mid 20s for much of the area.

By Monday morning, snow showers will likely be ongoing, as a 524-dm
low is modeled over the Ohio Valley. As this low pulls to the
northeast through the afternoon snow showers will taper off. High
temperatures will be chilly, in the mid to upper 30s. Clouds will
slowly dissipate in the evening, leading to low temperatures in the
low to mid 20s.

Tuesday through Friday, a warming trend will follow for the
remainder of the long-term period as height rises return to the area
under quasi-linear flow. Winds will be breezy in the afternoons,
with gusts up to 20-25 mph both Tuesday and Wednesday (lighter winds
beyond). Temperatures Tuesday will generally remain in the mid to
upper 40s, before warming into the mid to upper 50s Wednesday and
Thursday, reaching 60 in some spots Friday. Overnight lows generally
remain in the mid 30s through Thursday night, and low 40s Friday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025

Largely VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period, but
a line of showers and a few thunderstorms was beginning to advance
into the area from the northwest. The area of precipitation will
continue to transition southeast across the JKL forecast area
this afternoon and evening. With this, generally MVFR conditions
are forecast to develop, with a potential for IFR at times.
Precipitation will end from northwest to southeast tonight, but
MVFR ceilings will probably persist longer. A return to VFR
conditions is expected generally from west to east late tonight
and on Wednesday morning. However, where clouds break up well,
there will be a potential for valley fog to develop and last
through early Wednesday morning. This would result in localized
IFR or worse conditions.

There will also be southwesterly wind gusts of about 20-30 kts
this afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL