616
FXUS63 KJKL 182150
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
450 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An area of low pressure and its trailing cold front will track
  through the Ohio Valley and bring widespread rain chances to the
  region tonight.

- There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms
  across western portions of the forecast area this evening. Hail
  and damaging winds are the primary threats.

- Active weather continues through the end of the work week, with
  a seasonably mild and moist airmass in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 425 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025

Late this afternoon, an upper low was nearing the Chicago area
with a lead shortwave tracking through portions of OH and eastern
KY at this time while another shortwave was over the mid MS Valley
vicinity. Further southwest and west, an upper level ridge  was
centered in the western Gulf with ridging extending northwest and
north into the Plains. At the surface, a warm front extended
across the Commonwealth from low pressure moving into the Lower
oH valley and the boundary bisected the JKL CWA with temperatures
in the low 40s north of the Mtn Parkway and temperatures in the
upper 60s to around 70 along the TN border. Convection was ongoing
across northern sections of eastern KY west into western KY, IL,
and MO. Some lighting was embedded within the showers in eastern
KY.

This evening and tonight, the initial shortwave trough will depart
early this evening while the upper low continues to weaken to an
open wave as it treks to the mid Atlantic states and the trailing
shortwave trough crossing eastern KY this evening into the
overnight. Behind this trough the upper ridge axis will move east
to the MS Valley and then into the Gulf to southeast to MS and TN
Valley. A trend of rising heights is progged from late tonight
through Wednesday. The axis of this ridge shifts across the area
through the end of the period and height tendencies late in the
period should be neutral to falling a bit. Meanwhile multiple sfc
waves are progged to move east along the boundary with the first
crossing the northern portions of the area to the mid Atlantic
states tonight and the second moving into central to eastern KY
late tonight and into early on Wednesday. The frontal zone will
gradually sag south into eastern KY late tonight and eventually
south of the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Instability over eastern KY is very limited, but will be best in
the southwest near the TN border. MUCAPE per the RAP may reach as
high as 200 to 600 J/kg. Shear is ample, however, with bulk shear
of 50 to 60KT. Mid level lapse rates per RAP runs reach the 6 to
7C/km range briefly for a couple hours either side of 00Z or 8 PM
EST. SPC has western and southwestern portions of the area in a
Marginal Risk for severe weather and hail and perhaps strong wind
gusts will be the main risks in quick moving storms. With storms
to the west and northwest arriving into the region around or after
sunset, that is also a limiting factor. Thunder chances decrease
by late evening into the overnight hours and showers should also
decrease in coverage behind the shortwave. Temperatures will
remain mild in the low to mid 40s to mid 50s for lows tonight. As
the night progresses, stratus build down may lead to reduced
visibilities fog in the northern half of the area.

Wednesday into Wednesday night, near the boundary and the passing
surface wave, showers or areas of rain will possible Wednesday to
Wednesday evening. Temperatures will again be milder in the south
ahead of the boundary for highs on Wednesday. Lows for Wednesday
night will again be milder, in the mid 40s to around 50.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025

At the open of the long term period Thursday, models and ensembles
depict 2 areas of low pressure, upstream from Kentucky. One of the
upper-level lows are located over the Southwest U.S. and the other
over the Ozarks area. Through Thursday both progress east across the
Central Plains. A warm front will move across Eastern Kentucky
through Thursday leading to showers through the afternoon and
isolated to scattered thunderstorms Thursday evening and overnight.
Storms are not expected to be severe.

By Friday morning, the warm front that was over the area yesterday
is modeled to become a stationary front, continuing to provide
showers to the area. Morning thunderstorms may be possible, but they
are not expected to be severe. With any thunderstorm, strong and
erratic gusty winds are possible under or around them.

Saturday morning, A cold front in the Ohio Valley from a passing
Canadian low will help progress the stationary front sitting over
Kentucky. This will lead to showers and thunderstorms tapering off
in coverage in in the afternoon-evening. Sunday should be pretty
quiet with the Saturday system exiting overnight. Leading to partly
cloudy skies and dry conditions.

Another upper low over the Southwest U.S. will move into the Ozarks
overnight Monday and bring another chance of rain to the area
Tuesday. Model spread has decreased some toward the end of the
forecast period. In general temperatures will remain in the mid to
upper 60s for most of the area Thursday through Saturday.
Afterwards, seasonable temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s
return to the area. At night, lows Thursday and Friday night will
remain in the 50s. With a cold front expected to move through
Saturday, lows will range in the upper 30s to low 40s both Saturday
and Sunday nights. Lows gradually recover beyond that, in the mid
40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025

A warm front is forecast to lift north across most of the area
through the first 6 to 9 hours of the period before stalling south
of the OH River. This boundary should then sag back south into
eastern KY through the end of the period as a series of sfc waves
move along it. A mixture of MVFR and VFR was reported at issuance
time with some IFR or lower in spots in central KY. An area of
showers and some storms near the frontal zone should continue to
progress eastward across the area, affecting areas north of JKL to
SJS initially and then one or more rounds of showers and isolated
storms moving across the remainder of the area into this evening.
Any storms could produce wind gusts to upwards of 30KT or so.
Southeast to south winds at 10KT or less should prevail outside of
storms during the first 6 hours of the period. As the boundary
sags south, winds in the more northern locations will become
generally from the north to northeast at 10KT or less and remain
southwest to west and less than 10KT over the south. In any heavier
showers or storms during the first 12 hours of the period, breif
reductions to MVFR or IFR are anticipated. Otherwise, as the
boundary sags south and southeast and the lower levels saturate,
ceilings should deteriorate to MVFR to IFR as far south as a KSME
to KLOZ to KSJS between 00Z and 06Z, and then most areas into the
IFR to VLIFR range between 06Z and 12Z. Mainly IFR or lower is
forecast to prevail to end the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP