652
FXUS63 KJKL 011540
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1140 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant and mostly dry weather is expected to continue through
  Labor Day, with only a small chance of showers or thunderstorms
  this afternoon, mainly over southern Kentucky.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible area wide Tuesday, with
  higher probabilities for Wednesday and Thursday ahead of an
  approaching cold front.

- Rainfall totals through Thursday are expected to be around an
  inch or less for most locations.

- Below normal temperatures are expected through the period, with
  the coolest conditions mid to late week behind the relatively
  strong cold front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2025

Forecast is largely on track. Isolated sprinkles/brief showers
have developed adjacent to the Tennessee-Kentucky border late this
morning. Expect convective coverage increase somewhat and spread
northeast through mid-afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 840 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2025

Forecast has been updated to include the latest CAM trends as a
weak inverted trough along the western foothills of the Central/
Southern Appalachians will provide a focus for sporadic convective
initiation later this morning and afternoon. In fact, isolated
convection is already occurring over the Cumberland Plateau and
upper Tennessee Valley. In this latest update, there is now a
mentionable chance of showers and thunderstorms from Lake
Cumberland northeast to near US-421 and a small chance of
sprinkles or a light shower even further to the northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 434 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2025

An area of surface high pressure is centered over southern Canada
and the Great Lakes. This high-pressure dome is providing much of
the northern CONUS with mostly clear skies and dry weather. Locally,
similar conditions are in place. The clear skies have also allowed
for locally dense river valley fog to develop, primarily in the
Cumberland and Big Sandy river valleys.

Throughout the rest of the day, the surface high-pressure dome will
remain, leading to mostly dry weather and warmer temperatures, with
highs forecast to climb into the low to mid-80s. However, a
negatively tilted upper-level longwave trough with a closed
circulation is located northeast of the CWA. This longwave trough
and its associated closed circulation will assist in CI this
afternoon. Areas in southern Kentucky and the Cumberland River
Valley have the best chances for showers and storms (10% to 30%).
These showers and storms will taper off toward sunset. Clearing
skies are expected overnight, leading to the potential for locally
dense river valley fog.

Tuesday will bring a shortwave perturbation through the mean upper-
level flow. This disturbance will bring widespread chances (20% to
50%) for showers and thunderstorms to the area through the end of
the forecast period. Severe thunderstorms are not expected due to
meager shear values, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out.
Temperatures will be cooler, with highs forecast to be in the mid to
upper 70s.

The period will be highlighted by a slight chance of showers and
storms this afternoon, with better chances arriving on Tuesday.
Temperatures will remain pleasant today, climbing into the low to
mid-80s, with overnight lows falling into the mid to upper 50s.
Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday due to the increased threat
of showers and storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 434 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2025

The start of the long-term period features the remnant of Tuesdays
shortwave. In addition to this disturbance, an even stronger trough
is forecast to develop and track southeastward toward the
Commonwealth. Throughout the day Wednesday, the first disturbance
will bring increased PoP to the forecast area, but as the second
trough tracks southeast, a surface cold front will approach the
region. Showers and storms will accompany both features and will
persist through the day Wednesday into Thursday before FROPA occurs
late Thursday afternoon.

The upper-level trough and its closed circulation will remain
persistent over the Great Lakes, and another perturbation will track
through the mean flow, bringing another system through the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes. As the two systems Fujiwhara around each
other, another round of showers and storms is expected for Friday
into Saturday before the associated cold front moves through the
area on Saturday morning. A surface high-pressure system will build
into the region behind the exiting cold front, bringing below-
average temperatures and much more fall-like weather for the
remainder of the forecast period.

The period will be marked by multiple upper-level disturbances that
will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity from
Wednesday through early Saturday morning. Several fronts will move
through the region, the first late Wednesday night and again late
Friday night. Temperatures will remain nearly seasonal, with highs
in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid-
50s. Behind the final front, below-average temperatures and dry
weather will build into the region for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2025

VFR TAFs are prevailing with this TAF issuance and TAFs are
expected to remain largely VFR through the period. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon which could
cause brief reductions in category for KSME and KLOZ through
sunset. River valley fog could develop again overnight and create
other reductions in category should fog leak into any terminals.
Lastly, light and variable winds are expected through the period
outside of convection.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST