073
FXUS63 KJKL 120935
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
535 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorm chances will persist through the end of
  the week. The greatest coverage is expected from today through
  Thursday night. Some of the storms could arrive as organized
  clusters with a distinct potential for strong to damaging wind
  gusts - mainly today and tonight.

- Instances of excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most
  persistent, leading to elevated concerns for flooding -
  particularly today into tonight.

- A Flood Watch is now in effect for the entire forecast area
  through 2 am Thursday morning, primarily for flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 510 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows relatively weak high pressure still
centered southeast of Kentucky with broad low pressure well off
to the northwest along with a nearly stationary boundary arcing
through the lower Great Lakes. This places Kentucky well in the
warm sector of the larger system ripe with fuel for more
convection. Case in point - the latest cluster of storms is
entering our Bluegrass counties and driving south along I-75 but
appear to be sub severe at the moment. The main concern with these
will probably be the heavy to torrential rains that look to train
as additional storms are lined up to its north northwest and on
the same trajectory. Otherwise, clouds from the earlier cluster
remain over the southern portion of the CWA and have prevented
much in the way of valley fog from developing. Rain cooled air
from the initial evening clusters did the trick, though, and
brought temperatures down into the more seasonable levels of the
mid 60s most place with similar dewpoints. Away from the storm
clusters winds have been light at 5 kts or less and generally from
the south. Meanwhile, winds within the latest cluster inbound
are hitting in the mid to upper 40s mph.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
broad agreement concerning the overall pattern but differ on the
more subtle features that will impact our weather through the
short term portion of the forecast. They all depict mid-level
flow of the west northwesterly variety through Thursday on the
northeast side of the persistent 5h ridge. This ridge has
reoriented itself over the Central Gulf States and will build a
bit through the period helping lock in the mid-level flow pattern
over the Ohio Valley on its northern side. Within the resulting
quick mid-level flow, several more impulses will move southeast
through the region and across the central and southern
Appalachians during the period. The latest of these passed just
to the northeast earlier in the night with another more subtle one
slipping through this morning. Then a more defined one looks to
move through this afternoon then the models suggest a bit of a
lull, before one more healthy looking one crosses to the north of
the JKL CWA later Thursday - but moving more easterly than the
earlier southeast ones. Again, each of these will provide the
support for anticipated storm clusters through much of the next 36
to 48 hours but when and where they track is still rather
uncertain. The consensus for their movement places northern
Kentucky most targeted with systems then spreading southerly
through the JKL CWA. On account of the relatively small spread in
the models` solutions for the broader pattern aloft, unadjusted
NBM data was used for the bulk of the grids in this forecast.
However, some enhancements were made to the PoPs and thunder
chances today into Thursday evening primarily through the
inclusion of coverage, timing, and intensity details from the
consensus CAMs` solutions - though generously smoothed and blended
temporally with the best ideas on the timing of these storm
clusters.

Sensible weather will feature late season summertime heat and
humidity continuing to provide plenty of instability and fuel for
storm clusters just about anytime through the period. Today and
tonight is modeled to be active, but probably not as bad as we saw
during the last 24 hours. The caveat is that many places in
eastern Kentucky are better primed for flooding after the rains of
the past day. Again each cluster brings the significant threat of
heavy rain cumulatively heightening the high water concern with
each passing system. Accordingly, the Flood Watch was extended
through the first half of tonight to capture the next three
clusters. In addition, the daytime clusters may also be organized
enough, or with a a potent enough cold pool, to yield strong to
damaging wind gusts. Even at night, strong wind gusts will be
possible. As for the heavy rain - the training of these storms
will be the main concern including a possibility of back building.
Thursday`s weather will be more uncertain but conditions remain
favorable for organized storms along with additional heavy rains
and strong to damaging wind gusts - however they may orient
themselves more to the northeast than the nearer term ones. In
between systems, temperatures will have the opportunity to reach
the upper 80s and lower 90s each day but many locations will also
be somewhat rain cooled. Combined with the very high dewpoints
this afternoon and again on Thursday, we will likely see many
spots hit heat indices between 95 to 100 degrees - highest in the
southwest and perhaps even a notch hotter on Thursday.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include
the latest CAMs consensus scenarios for PoPs and thunder through
the short term. Considering the high humidity levels limiting the
impacts of radiational cooling at night and lack of dry air
available to mixdown for the afternoons (as well as the high level
of convective uncertainty) - both elements were mostly left alone.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 535 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026

The most current model data continues to suggest a pattern aloft
that favors the formation of storm clusters through Friday - most
of which will impinge on the weather for eastern Kentucky. Right
now, SPC has continued a Marginal severe threat into Friday for
the bulk of our area. Meanwhile, WPC continues to highlight
excessive rain threats through Friday - though the concern is
higher earlier in the week. We continue to highlight this in
messaging and social media. Please keep monitoring this
developing, potentially impactful, weather situation. By the
weekend things should be settling down, though

The previous long term discussion follows:

With a strong ridge across the Gulf of America and parts of the
Southern Mississippi Valley, and a strong upper level low in eastern
Canada. The result will be strong NW to SE flow across the Ohio
Valley, including Kentucky on Thursday - a continuation from the
short term portion of the forecast. With an elongated surface
boundary also set up across the Ohio Valley, this could continue the
pain train of MCS`s passing southeast and through the region on
Thursday. In some promising news, the ridge does start to build
northward on Friday, which will push the storm trajectory north a
bit. However, could still impact the northeast portion of the state
during the day. The ridge will continue to build in further as we go
into Saturday, sustaining through Sunday, before it`s pushed back
southward during the day Monday as troughing increases along the
Atlantic Coast, reintroducing the same NW to SE flow to the region
again through the rest of the forecast period.

As has been discussed over the past days, with each round of MCSs
that moves through, another round of heavy to torrential rainfall
will occur on increasingly saturated soils - so the flash flood
threat will remain a concern. CAMS have really not been handling
these MCSs well in the short term, both spatially or temporally. And
if the CAMs aren`t handling it well, the long-term models are also
not lending much confidence. Friday is also a bit interesting
because the upper level forcing will be lessoning, but the surface
boundary will finally drop southward into the state as a cold front,
which could continue some convection across the region - though
still unclear if there will actually be an MCS or just more
scattered to widespread convection. By Saturday, as ridging takes
further hold and the surface boundary drops farther south of the
state, high pressure should generally be in control. This should
persist into Sunday. The NBM does still have some very low end pops,
mainly along the far eastern side of the state, but don`t expect
anything more at this point.

When the pattern begins to set back up with SW flow on Monday into
Tuesday, WPC is also analyzing another cold front shifting southeast
through the state as well, which, if it pans out, would bring yet
another increase in precipitation to the region.

Despite the passage of cold fronts and numerous systems moving
through, overall temperatures are forecast to rather steady-state,
with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Lows will be in the upper

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026

Rain will continue to move out of the area and diminish early
tonight while additional scattered showers and storms develop. The
predictability of the coverage and location of these
showers/storms is low, making the forecast low confidence and
messy. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to
be possible at times through the rest of the TAF period.

Outside of storms, winds will be light and variable. Some fog is
also possible later tonight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW/GREIF
AVIATION...Titus