180
FXUS63 KJKL 190705
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
205 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An area of low pressure and its trailing cold front will track
  through the Ohio Valley and bring widespread rain chances to the
  region early this morning.

- Active weather continues through the end of the work week, with
  a seasonably mild and moist airmass in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 146 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025

Increasing mid-level geopotential heights this morning through
tonight with near-surface weak cold advection and a moist air mass
behind a weak cold front will mean widespread low stratus with
fog development this morning, with widespread stratus that is
expected to persist through much if not all of the daytime hours
and into the nighttime hours tonight. Given high confidence with
this occurring, we have lowered highs today a few degrees,
especially across the northern half of the forecast area. To the
far south, some clearing could occur in the afternoon that allows
temperatures to rise well into the 60s, but even here forecast
highs were lowered slightly in relation to the NBM.

By Thursday, extensive high clouds and increasing warm advection
will allow for the stratus to burn off and/or retreat north toward
the Ohio River, with highs rising to the upper 50s to lower 60s
in the north and remaining in the upper 60s in the south. An
ejecting shortwave moving toward the OH/TN valley region from a
large upper low over the Southwest CONUS and northwestern Mexico
will push rain into the area along and north of a quasi-
stationary front situated to our south and west, especially late
in the afternoon and into the early evening.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025

An active long-term period is expected, beginning Thursday night
with a warm front moving north through the area and rain
overspreading the region from the west in association with a
system ejecting from a large low over the Southwest CONUS and
northwestern Mexico and moving across our region Friday. As the
warm front moves slowly north with time, moisture and instability
will increase along with temperatures allowing for some
thunderstorm activity with localized pockets of heavy rain at
times from late Thursday night through early Saturday. At this
times, there are no significant flood concerns expected as
precipitation will not be continuous across the region, though
widespread QPF of 0.75 to 1.25 inches is expected.

Models are in agreement in a shortwave passage later Saturday with
a likely cold frontal passage bringing briefly cooler and drier
conditions to the region for Sunday, before warm advection begins
again early next week with another system ejecting out of the
southwest CONUS and moving east and northeast across the eastern
CONUS. Thus, rain probabilities increase again through early next
week, typically one of the busiest travel periods of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025

At 05z, a weak cold front located just north of KJKL and KSJS was
moving east and southeast. Ahead of the front, rain with embedded
showers and storms are moving across the southern half of the
forecast area and impacting KJKL, KSME, and KLOZ, where VFR
conditions are occurring but with brief reductions to MVFR
conditions expected within heavier cells. To the south of the
front, these conditions are expected to continue for the next
several hours. However, behind the advancing boundary, CIGS are
forecast to fall into categorical LIFR in fog after 06Z beginning
at KSYM and moving south through the remainder of the overnight.
Terminals are then expected to stay LIFR in fog through the
remainder of the overnight with very slow improvement expected
through Wednesday morning.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC