017
FXUS63 KJKL 011915
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
215 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A messy weather event is on track for tonight and Tuesday, with
  a good potential for wintery precipitation, especially north of
  the Mountain Parkway.

- Drier and colder weather will be in place for the middle of the
  week. Temperatures will average between 5 and 10 degrees colder
  than normal.

- The pattern will turn active towards the weekend with additional
  chances of precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 213 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025

The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded south and southwest
given a sufficient number of mesoscale and global models
depicting strong frontogenetic forcing potential extending in
roughly an arc from parts of northeastern Kentucky southwest into
central Kentucky, mainly between around midnight tonight and the
Tuesday morning commute. Snow accumulation forecasts have likewise
been raised in these areas, while the areal extent of ice
accumulations has also expanded slightly, though maximum amounts
look to remain at or below two-tenths of an inch. Some of the
more aggressive guidance which indicate frontogenetic forcing
indicate the potential for isolated strips of up to 4 inches of
snow accumulation, with the Interstate 64 corridor and north the
more likely locations to see such potential. Note that if
frontogenetic forcing is not realized or displaced from current
forecasts, snow and ice accumulations may be significantly lower
with much less impact on travel late tonight through the Tuesday
morning commute.

Otherwise, there is no significant change to the larger-scale
forecast, with a surface cyclone developing currently over the Deep
South with an attendant surface trough extending north to the
Cumberland Plateau region west of the Appalachians. This system will
move to the East Coast Tuesday, with colder air spilling into the
region from the northwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. The latest
forecast does keep low-end PoPs (flurries and light snow showers)
longer into the afternoon and evening Tuesday within the cold
advection and upslope wind regime.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025

Tuesday evening opens with cloudy conditions which are expected to
slowly improving through the night as surface high pressure builds
into the area for Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night bottom out in the
lower 20s, with upper 20s across far Eastern Kentucky, such as Pike
and Floyd counties.

High pressure keeps Eastern Kentucky dry Wednesday and Thursday,
with temperatures rising into the upper 30s to low 40s each day.
Increasing clouds are expected through Wednesday night, but not
before valley locations decouple and drop into the low to mid 20s.
Ridge-tops may stay elevated in the upper 20s to low 30s. Clouds
increase from nearby systems both north and south of the area,
although dry conditions are still expected through Thursday.

The next system with potential to cause active weather for the area
stems from a short wave trough in the Gulf States. While this is
going on a northern stream of energy transiting southeastern Canada
is also taking place. A baroclinic zone will develop from the lower
Mississippi Valley through the Tennessee Valley.

With the time of year, strength and timing of storms deeply matters
in regard to precip-type. At current, deeper moisture and warmth
will be slung toward eastern Kentucky Friday into Saturday, with
precipitation chances remaining around the 60-70% range. Most will
fall as rain, with the exception of the early morning on Friday,
where enough cold air might be in place for light snow. Another low
end precip chance remains for later in the weekend, Sunday, with
another passing cold front. Precip chances for that storm remains in
the 20-35% range. With uncertainty increasing beyond Thursday,
ensemble temperature spread increases, and the plausible range of
temperatures expands to a 10 degree range Friday and beyond,
although the median temperature is generally in the low to mid 40s
each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025

MVFR ceilings continue north of the Mountain Parkway, and as of
1730z were slowly rising and beginning to show initial signs of
trying to scatter out over the next couple of hours. Meanwhile,
VFR conditions under clear or fair skies were occurring. Clouds
and precipitation are forecast to overtake the area from the south
and west between 01z and 06z, with conditions deteriorating to
generally IFR or worse. The precipitation is expected to be rain
for most of the forecast area tonight, except for a wintery mix
north of the Mountain Parkway. Conditions will improve from
northwest to southeast toward the end of the period, but models
differ on the timing of the end of precipitation as well as how
quickly conditions improve.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-104-106-108.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC