358
FXUS63 KJKL 250958
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
458 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A series of frontal boundaries will move across the region
  between today and Wednesday morning.

- Isolated strong storms are possible on this afternoon/ evening
  for areas along and south of the Mountain Parkway.

- A cold and dry airmass will settle into the region for
  Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

- There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for Saturday and
  beyond.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 456 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025

Surface analysis indicates a weak warm front is lifting northward
through the forecast area, currently situated just south of the Ohio
River, based on the latest surface observations. Concurrently, a
surface low-pressure system is tracking across the Hill Parishes of
northern Louisiana. Showers, associated with the warm front, are
currently moving across the CWA. Strong LLJ winds are mixing down to
the surface, resulting in increasing wind speeds, particularly
across the southern CWA. Consequently, an SPS for wind gusts up to
35 mph has been issued through the mid-morning hours.

Upper-level flow analysis shows an upper-level trough positioned
over the Flint Hills of eastern Nebraska. This trough is forecast to
rapidly eject northeast, drawing the northern Louisiana surface low
into the Tennessee Valley. This evolution will lead to an increased
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. There is a potential for
strong thunderstorms during Tuesday afternoon, ahead of a weak cold
front. Forecast soundings for the afternoon suggest that some storms
could be marginally strong. Instability indices indicate a few
hundred Joules of elevated CAPE, along with adequate shear and ESRH,
and a veering vertical wind profile. However, mid-level lapse rates
and the overall CAPE magnitude are characterized as marginal.
Despite the marginal metrics, the potential exists for an isolated
strong to severe storm, with the possibility of storms exhibiting
rotation. Areas along and south of the Mountain Parkway are favored
for seeing these stronger storms. The weak cold front passage is
forecast for later this evening.

The trough driving todays surface low will be absorbed into the mean
flow later this morning. Simultaneously, a stronger shortwave trough
is forecast to dive southeastward from the northern Rockies across
the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes region. At the surface,
another cold front will propagate southeastward into the
Commonwealth and eventually traverse the area throughout Wednesday
before quickly exiting the forecast area.

The overall short-term period will be characterized by the approach
of an occluding surface low on Tuesday. A second cold front is
forecast to arrive on Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to climb
into the low to upper 60s for Tuesday. Overnight low temperatures
will be mild, ranging from the upper 40s in the west to the mid-50s
in the east. Daytime high temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler
due to CAA following the frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 456 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025

A surface high-pressure system is forecast to build into the region
and remain in place from Thanksgiving Day through late Saturday
night. While surface high pressure prevails, the upper-level flow
will persist from the northwest, supporting the advection of colder
air for both Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

Long-term deterministic models and a significant portion of their
individual ensemble members indicate an active conclusion to the
extended forecast period. While differences exist among the
individual model runs, the consensus trend is for a shortwave
perturbation to track from the southern Plains into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. This feature will bring increasing chances of
rain showers, along with the potential for a rain/snow mix early
Sunday morning before temperatures warm sufficiently to support an
all-rain precipitation type. The forecast area is expected to remain
on the warm side of the system during its passage, leading to long-
duration rainfall.

The long-term period will be highlighted by high pressure building
into the region on Thursday. Due to the northwesterly flow, CAA will
favor colder temperatures beginning Thursday and persisting through
early Saturday. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to bottom
out in the 20s for the mornings of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday
before a warming trend commences on Sunday morning. Another low-
pressure system is forecast to impact the area toward the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025

VFR conditions still prevailed at the start of the period. Rain
has struggled to reach the ground due to downslope flow and dry
air aloft. Enough moistening should eventually occur for light
rain to arrive in some locations overnight (especially far western
and northern portions of the forecast area), but it will probably
take longer for significant deterioration in conditions. Low
level flow will also pick up overnight, especially just off the
surface, and low level wind shear will be a concern overnight into
Tuesday morning over the western portion of the area. During the
day Tuesday showers will become more numerous area wide, with a
deterioration to mostly MVFR conditions expected during the
course of the day.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL