416
FXUS63 KJKL 170317
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1117 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through
  Thursday, with a small potential for high water or flash
  flooding at times.

- Seasonably warm high temperatures are forecast through most of
  the week, with heat then building during the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1117 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025

An area of showers and storms is traveling across the middle of
the CWA tonight. This cluster of storms has brought gusty winds
and heavy rainfall to those areas. The storms are expected to
continue their roughly east/northeast journey through the region
before gradually dissipating. Heavy rain continues to be the main
issue to watch for. Made some minor tweaks to the PoP and sky
grids based on recent trends, as well as blended in obs and
freshened product wording.

UPDATE Issued at 755 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025

It`s another humid evening across eastern Kentucky, with
temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s and dewpoints
in the low 70s across the region. Showers are storms are scattered
over the area, with chances continuing through the evening. Recent
sounding analysis shows plenty of moisture and a long, skinny
CAPE profile, indicating these have the potential to be efficient
rain-makers with the risk of producing high water/flash flooding
issues. Made some slight adjustments to the PoP grids based on
recent trends in radar imagery and hi-res guidance. Otherwise,
stuck to blending in recent observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 235 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025

An upper trough will approach eastern Kentucky slowly from the west
through Tuesday evening, before crossing the area Tuesday night.
Deep southwesterly flow will increase as the trough approaches,
increasing moisture transport across the forecast area. The slow-
moving nature of the trough and the increasing moisture advection
supports an increased excessive rainfall risk, with the Weather
Prediction Center issuing a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for
parts of northeastern and eastern Kentucky for Tuesday into Tuesday
night, with the Marginal Risk continuing through this afternoon
and evening. The increased southwest flow aloft will also support
a threat of strong storms Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be primarily in the 60s, with
any partial clearing allowing for fog formation, especially in the
valleys. Highs Tuesday are forecast to reach the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 608 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025

A weakening upper level shortwave trough moving into the region
in the short term period will be exiting to our east Wednesday
morning. Showers and thunderstorm are likely to be ongoing, with
the extent of coverage dependent on the progress of the trough as
it gets ready to exit the area. More showers and thunderstorm may
occur in the afternoon with diurnal destabilization, but coverage
would probably be more limited than in preceding days due to more
benign conditions aloft. This activity should further diminish in
the evening with loss of heating.

That lull will only be short-lived, as another more significant
upper trough and an associated surface cold front head in. This
trough is currently moving onshore on the West Coast. An area of
showers/thunderstorms could begin to move in from the northwest
by dawn on Thursday, and would then move through during the day.

Somewhat drier air is forecast to arrive behind the cold front for
Friday into Saturday. However, the upper trough will continue to
be progressive, and upper level ridging is expected to build in
from the west and then park itself over the central Appalachians
as a strong upper high early in the new week. This will result in
building heat and mainly dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025

Shower and storm chances will continue through the evening. These
chances decrease some, but generally stick around through the
overnight. Outside of storms, VFR conditions are generally
expected with light winds. Some patchy fog may try to work into a
TAF site, depending on cloud clearing, but confidence was not high
enough to add to the TAFs at this time. Shower and storm chances
increase again tomorrow afternoon, bringing the usual risk of low
visibilities and gusty erratic winds should any storm impact a TAF
site directly. Outside of storms, winds are expected to be between
5 and 10 kts out of the southwest.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAS
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAS