071
FXUS63 KJKL 272115
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
515 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant and dry weather continues through the end of the work
  week with cool, comfortable nights.

- Labor Day weekend will remain mostly dry, though a few isolated
  showers may develop Sunday afternoon, especially in southeastern
  Kentucky.

- While better chances for rain arrive early next week, any
  rainfall looks too light to provide significant relief to the
  current drought conditions near Lake Cumberland.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 341 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2025

A large scale eastern CONUS trough will persist through the short
term period. Surface high pressure bringing us our our cool and
dry air mass will remain nearby, with dry weather persisting.
A weak cold front will approach from the north toward the end of
the period, but will be moisture starved.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2025

A large upper level trough will continue to push east across
Quebec on Friday, ejecting an attendant cold front to eastern
Kentucky. While moisture will increase ahead of FROPA,
precipitable water values remain at the 50th percentile for this
time of year. A stray shower or two cannot be ruled out, but
guidance continues to keep things relatively dry. If any showers
do form, rainfall amounts will be negligible.

The upcoming weekend will be dominated by northwest flow aloft,
allowing high pressure to push into the region. By Sunday,
easterly surface winds will aid in a slight moisture increase
across southeast Kentucky. Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to
depict spotty shower development Sunday night. At this time,
thunder chances appear low (<20%) with any precipitation that
forms Sunday.

Long term forecast models begin to diverge in solution for the
beginning of next week, partly due to uncertainty regarding how
much moisture is able to filter into the region. The LREF depicts
greater ensemble spread in QPF amounts on Tuesday. However, even
the greatest amounts sit around 0.75 inches. Therefore, additional
rain chances are anticipated early next week, but rainfall
amounts will not be enough to make a measurable dent in the
current D1 drought conditions around Lake Cumberland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2025

Late night and early morning valley fog will bring localized IFR
or worse conditions. TAF sites are not likely to be impacted.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SCHLESSIGER
AVIATION...HAL