041
FXUS63 KJKL 021827
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
227 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front moving from north to south will bring showers and
  perhaps a few thunderstorms to the area this afternoon through
  tonight. Rain chances will linger through the weekend in some
  locations, especially in southeast Kentucky.

- Dry and cooler weather will arrive area wide for the new
  workweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026

Lowered today`s temps and brought in POP faster where clouds and
light showers are already showing up in our northwest.

UPDATE Issued at 747 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026

Modifications to Sky and PoP grids were made through this
afternoon, with the more significant changes in the near term
based on latest satellite and model trends with the arrival and
development of showers and possible thunderstorms toward midday.
The Sky and PoP grids blended in latest CAMS to slow the arrival
of lower clouds and PoPs by a couple of hours from the previous
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 238 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026

A disturbance with associated leading (downstream) southwesterly
jet streak will move east across the Ohio Valley this afternoon
and evening, pushing a cold front south across eastern Kentucky
this afternoon into tonight. The associated shortwave shears out
over the Ohio Valley tonight into Saturday, keeping synoptic-
scale forcing for ascent over at least southeastern Kentucky
lingering into Saturday. The cold front then begins to lift north
as a warm front through eastern Kentucky Saturday ahead of a
stronger disturbance aloft moving through an active jet stream
digging into the Upper Midwest to end the period Saturday evening.

Expect mainly dry conditions this morning to give way to increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances from the northwest as the
disturbance and cold front approach, with the best chances for
storms this afternoon immediately along and ahead of the front where
weak instability and moisture are likely to be sufficient to
support such in the warm advection environment. Low ceilings with
more stable conditions will develop into the evening immediately
behind the front as dry air and subsidence move in aloft.

The front stalls southeast of the area tonight into Saturday with
post-frontal light north to northeasterly winds, but the presence of
the disturbance upstream will keep sufficient forcing for ascent to
support continued shower activity over much of eastern Kentucky,
especially for areas south of Interstate 64 by the daytime hours
Saturday.

Above normal temperatures today within the pre-frontal warm
advection environment will support highs once again above normal in
the lower to middle 80s, with temperatures cooling normal for lows
in the 50s to lower 60s south tonight with the passage of the cold
front. Noticeably cooler temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s
can be expected Saturday in the post-frontal environment
characterized by cool advection and clouds with shower chances.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 238 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026

The long term period will open with broad troughing over the eastern
CONUS, with the trough axis initially west of the forecast area in
the Midwest. Meanwhile, a midlevel high will be centered over the
Four Corners region, with a fairly broad area of ridging over the
western CONUS. At the surface, an area of low pressure will
initially sit due south of the forecast area in Tennessee; this low
will attempt to lift north towards the forecast area early Sunday
morning before an additional cold front pushes through the area by
Sunday afternoon. Rain will remain likely in southeastern Kentucky
throughout the day given closer proximity to the surface low, with
lesser chances to the northwest. Thankfully, widespread cloud cover
and a relatively cool and saturated air mass will keep instability
very low (with LREF mean surface based CAPE of 100 J/kg on Sunday
afternoon), so rain rates with this activity should remain meager,
mitigating any flash flood risk.

By Monday morning, the front will have departed our area, with
northerly to north northeasterly postfrontal winds ushering in a
cooler and drier air mass. At the same time, midlevel ridging will
expand east, leaving eastern Kentucky in a region of northwest flow
aloft near the base of the original trough. This pattern will
persist through Wednesday, with highs remaining quite cool
(generally ranging from the upper 60s in the northern forecast area
to low 70s in the south). It will feel dry early next week, too;
dewpoints will largely be in the 40s across the forecast area
through Tuesday, courtesy of continued northeasterly winds around a
surface high over the Great Lakes region. Each night, clear skies
and light winds will allow for temperatures to cool significantly,
particularly in valleys. Raw NBM output is running noticeably cooler
than deterministic models, even in valley locations, although MOS
guidance does suggest valleys could reach the low 40s overnight
Monday and Tuesday. Adding uncertainty, deterministic guidance still
disagrees regarding the magnitude of the pressure gradient over our
forecast area; a tighter pressure gradient, favored by the GFS,
would prevent full decoupling, keeping valleys warmer. Thus, there
is less confidence in exact low temperatures, although confidence is
high that overnight temperatures will be below average.

By Wednesday, the surface high will continue to shift east, with
winds becoming more westerly during the afternoon hours, allowing
dewpoints to rise modestly into the 50s. Lows will be a bit warmer
Wednesday night, only falling into the mid 40s. Still, weather
looks to be sunny through the end of the period, with high
temperatures climbing a few degrees by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026

Conditions are a mix of VFR and MVFR as showers have begun across
the area along and near the passing cold front. Instability is
sufficient for a few thunderstorms, handled with PROB30 groups in
the TAFs. Ceilings will worsen from northwest to southeast through
06Z or so, with a period of IFR conditions expected through this
evening and overnight. Ceilings will then begin to improve through
the remainder of the TAF period starting in the northwest (06-18Z).
Winds should generally remain under 10 kts behind the front,
veering from northwest to northeast over the next few hours.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...GINNICK/CMC