819
FXUS63 KJKL 162208
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
608 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through
  Thursday, with a small potential for high water or flash
  flooding at times.

- Seasonably warm high temperatures are forecast through most of
  the week, with heat then building during the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 235 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025

An upper trough will approach eastern Kentucky slowly from the west
through Tuesday evening, before crossing the area Tuesday night.
Deep southwesterly flow will increase as the trough approaches,
increasing moisture transport across the forecast area. The slow-
moving nature of the trough and the increasing moisture advection
supports an increased excessive rainfall risk, with the Weather
Prediction Center issuing a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for
parts of northeastern and eastern Kentucky for Tuesday into Tuesday
night, with the Marginal Risk continuing through this afternoon
and evening. The increased southwest flow aloft will also support
a threat of strong storms Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be primarily in the 60s, with
any partial clearing allowing for fog formation, especially in the
valleys. Highs Tuesday are forecast to reach the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 608 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025

A weakening upper level shortwave trough moving into the region
in the short term period will be exiting to our east Wednesday
morning. Showers and thunderstorm are likely to be ongoing, with
the extent of coverage dependent on the progress of the trough as
it gets ready to exit the area. More showers and thunderstorm may
occur in the afternoon with diurnal destabilization, but coverage
would probably be more limited than in preceding days due to more
benign conditions aloft. This activity should further diminish in
the evening with loss of heating.

That lull will only be short-lived, as another more significant
upper trough and an associated surface cold front head in. This
trough is currently moving onshore on the West Coast. An area of
showers/thunderstorms could begin to move in from the northwest
by dawn on Thursday, and would then move through during the day.

Somewhat drier air is forecast to arrive behind the cold front for
Friday into Saturday. However, the upper trough will continue to
be progressive, and upper level ridging is expected to build in
from the west and then park itself over the central Appalachians
as a strong upper high early in the new week. This will result in
building heat and mainly dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025

Scattered showers and storms have already developed and will peak
in coverage this afternoon into the early evening before waning
again towards midnight. Winds outside of any storms will be light,
around 5 kts, generally out of the southwest through the period.
Fog is likely where any partial clearing occurs tonight,
especially where rain occurs this afternoon and evening, and
should dissipate by ~14z Tuesday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...CMC