319
FXUS63 KJKL 301739
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1239 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front passing through today will bring an end to any
  rain, and keep temperatures from rising much.

- A more significant precip event is expected Monday night and
  Tuesday, with a little bit better potential for wintery
  precipitation, especially north of the Mountain Parkway.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1052 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

Patchy drizzle and an isolated rain shower or two can be expected
over the next few hours as a cold front continues to push east
across eastern Kentucky late this morning. A few flurries are
possible in the higher elevations this afternoon. Otherwise, the
forecast is on track and there were no major changes needed to the
forecast with the late morning update.

UPDATE Issued at 744 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

A cold front with showers along it is over central KY early this
morning, heading east southeast. Based on obs, have sped up the
front by an hour from what was previously forecasted.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

Overnight Saturday night, low pressure was crossing the Great Lakes
with a cold front trailing south through western KY. The cold front
will cross east through the JKL forecast area this morning and will
probably bring light rain along and ahead of the front for some
locations. Behind the cold front, cooler and drier air will arrive
and allow for decreasing clouds, especially in the afternoon.
Despite some limited sunshine returning, temperatures will struggle
to climb much due to the cold air advection.

High pressure behind the front will approach and pass to our north
tonight. Clouds should be sparse enough to allow for radiating,
especially in the evening, and along with light winds, allow for
effective cooling. High clouds may begin to lower and thicken
overnight, slowing the drop in temps.

The high clouds will be in advance of the next system to affect us.
An upper level trough will be moving east over the central CONUS
while associated low pressure develops near the gulf coast with an
inverted trough extending norther on the west side of the
Appalachians. Lift generated by the approaching upper trough and
warm air advection aloft will bring a continued increase in clouds.
However, it looks like precip will hold off to our southwest through
the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 419 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

The extended forecast period opens with an approaching system
knocking on the door. An inverted trough moves across parts of the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and The Appalachians Monday night through
Tuesday. Storm track can greatly vary what happens across the CWA.
At current, a low is expected to strengthen over the Gulf states of
Mississippi and Alabama, before tracking north and east. How far
north will determine precip type across the area. A more northerly
storm track would result in warmer air, and more rain for the area.
A more southerly track, staying south of the Outer Banks of the
Carolinas would result in colder air remaining over the area and
more snow across the area. At current a range of precip types are
expected, with areas south of the I-64 corridor starting as all
rain, and a rain-snow mix north of the corridor. Temperatures will
NOT follow a diurnal trend (fall steadily through the night) as the
inverted trough will progress through the region overnight.
Temperatures are expected to fall through midnight before warming a
degree or two shortly after midnight through 7am, after-which
temperatures will drop through the morning. This is in line with
southwesterly winds becoming northwesterly after sunrise.

Locations south of the I-64 corridor are currently expected to
transition from rain to a rain-snow mix through the morning hours
Tuesday. The transition would start closest to the corridor, slowly
spreading south as colder air advects into the area from the
northwest. POP chances slowly dwindle Tuesday afternoon as the
system progresses into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.

With warm air aloft working in from the southwest, and temperatures
around freezing along and north of the I-64 corridor, freezing rain
can`t be ruled out for a few hours around midnight Monday into
Tuesday. No major ice accumulations are expected. Lows Monday night
will generally range from the mid to low 30s, with the coldest
locations being along and north of the I-64 corridor. As rain
transitions to a rain-snow mix Tuesday, temperatures will struggle
to hit 40, with much of the area remaining in the mid to upper 30s.
With the system having exited the area, Eastern Kentucky skies will
slowly clear out Tuesday night. This will allow for temperatures to
drop into the low to mid 20s.

Wednesday through Thursday, dry weather returns to the region, with
the next systems arriving sometime toward the end of the week and
weekend. The weather pattern looks to remain active heading into
December.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

MVFR/IFR conditions in drizzle, mist, and low clouds will
gradually improve to VFR conditions from northwest to southeast
through the afternoon as a cold front exits to the east. A
secondary cold front may bring another round of MVFR cigs
overnight, with highest probabilities of this occurring at KSYM
and KSJS but with too low confidence to include in the TAFs at
this time. Gusty west-northwest to southwest winds gusting around
20 kts early this afternoon will become westerly behind the front
and gradually diminish.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC