828
FXUS63 KJKL 080625 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
225 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It will turn cooler today as a brisk northerly breeze brings in
  drier air.

- Seasonably cool and dry conditions are expected to continue from
  this afternoon through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 200 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
and a touch up to the PoPs per the latest radar and CAMs. Did also
preserve some trace sprinkles/drizzle through the rest of the
night along with areas of fog - locally dense. These adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening
of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1010 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

With the loss of daytime heating and the passing of a shortwave
earlier this evening combined with no lightning having been
detected over the past 2 hours in the region, opted to lower
thunder chances below 15 percent for the remainder of the night.
Otherwise, rounds of showers will continue as a cold front drops
across the region through the predawn hours, though chances will
linger behind the front with low level flow becoming upslope and
moisture lingering. Some stratus build down is also anticipated at
times overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

Hourly grids were updated based on recent observation and radar
trends. This led to lowering hourly pops over the next few hours
as the main area of prefrontal convection associated with a
passing shortwave is exiting into VA. The threat for heavy rain is
also ending as the deeper moisture and better forcing will also be
pulling out of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

At 19z, the regional radar mosaic shows steady moderate rain
occurring across most locations north of the Mountain Parkway with
more intermittent rainfall further south. This rainfall is driven
by a very moist airmass (PWATs of 1.7 to 1.8 inches) that is
feeding into the region on a 30 to 35 kt, 850 hPa jet, then
ascending isentropically over a warm frontal boundary and into the
favored right-entrance region of an 80+ kt, 300 mb jet streak.
That warm front extends from ~Middlesboro northwest to
Elizabethtown and into a weak elongated surface low over southern
Indiana and western Kentucky. A cold front trails south from the
low into Middle Tennessee. A second more potent cold front
stretches from the St. Lawrence Valley, across the Eastern Great
Lakes, through the Missouri Bootheel and down across Texas. Aloft,
there is a 500 hPa trough extending from the Hudson Bay region
down into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

The 300 hPa jet streak will gradually eject northeast through
early evening but may also intensify slightly. Thus, while
stratiform precipitation is currently diminishing over Central
Kentucky, the increased forcing should support an increase in the
low-level jet and maintain steadier light to moderate rainfall
over northeastern Kentucky until near sunset. South of the
Mountain Parkway, activity will remain more showery with the most
substantial activity occurring with the cold frontal passage
between 4-6 PM in the Lake Cumberland area to around midnight in
the far east. Where the steadier rains are most persistent
(primarily near and north of the Mountain Parkway), the concern
for excessive rainfall continues, potentially leading to urban and
small stream flooding. Additional rainfall amounts through the
evening could exceed 1 inch and locally approach 2 inches north of
the Parkway. Further south, additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to
1.0 inch are expected. Rainfall, steadier in the north and
showery in the south, will taper off with the passage of the cold
front.

Behind the first cold front, low stratus, drizzle, and fog are
expected overnight as low-level flow turns northerly and upslope.
The low-level moisture will linger into the morning hours on
Wednesday before gradually sinking southeast as a secondary cold
front slides across the area. Clearing skies and drier air will
follow that front on a brisk northerly breeze, gusting between 15
and 20 mph at times in the afternoon. As the upper-level trough
pulls away, chilly high pressure will build over the Great Lakes
on Thursday night. Some nocturnal radiational fog is probable in
the more sheltered valleys, but any widespread fog will be
mitigated by a subtle northerly gradient flow. Temperatures will
drop considerably over the next 36 hours. Tonights lows are
forecast to range from the mid-50s in the Bluegrass to the low 60s
southeast of the Hal Rogers Parkway. Looking ahead to Wednesday,
cool high temperatures are expected, peaking in the upper 60s to
low 70s, followed by lows in the low to mid 40s on Wednesday
night. A few of the coldest hollows could briefly dip into the
upper 30s by around dawn Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

The period begins Thursday morning with a small yet vigorous
disturbance over the Tennessee Valley within overall northwesterly
flow aloft between a strong ridge over the center of the country and
a deep trough exiting New England. This disturbance digs south to
the Southeast coastline and helps to develop a strong surface low
along the coast through Monday. Meanwhile, another upper low digs
southeast through the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and combines
with the Southeast low to form a large complex low off the Mid-
Atlantic coastline. Models are then in good overall agreement in
upper ridging building northeastward from the south-central CONUS
into the Ohio Valley to end the period Monday into Monday night.

Models continue to trend lower with Friday morning`s low
temperatures, especially in the most sheltered northeastern valleys,
where some isolated patchy areas of frost cannot be completely be
ruled out as temperatures dip into the mid-30s. Otherwise, cool and
dry conditions are expected to end this week, this weekend, and
early next week, though temperatures will be slowly trending upwards
after bottoming out behind the cold front that moves across the area
tonight. Any precipitation with the coastal low will remain east of
the area through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025

A range of conditions were reported at issuance time with some
locations IFR or lower while others were VFR. There continues to
be some uncertainty in conditions to begin the period with patchy
rain or upslope drizzle behind a cold front during the early
morning hours. Confidence is greater for a general trend of
deterioration in ceiling and visibility categories though the
first 3-6 hours of the period to widespread IFR or lower with some
lingering MVFR followed by widespread IFR or lower area-wide 9 to
12Z. Improvements gradually spread in from northwest to southeast
into VFR conditions between 12 and 21Z. During the first 12 or so
hours, there should be several hours of near or below airport
mins observed at the TAF sites on upslope stratus and drizzle
behind the front. Winds will be west and then northwest through
09Z and then finally trend to the north to northeast through the
end of the period with speeds of generally 10 kts or less.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...JP/GREIF