191
FXUS63 KJKL 231752
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1252 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier weather returns to the area through Monday afternoon.

- A series of frontal boundaries will move across the region
  between Monday night and Wednesday morning, leading to
  widespread rain chances on Tuesday.

- A colder, but drier, airmass will settle into the region for the
  beginning of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025

Updated the forecast with the latest observations and forecast
trends. No major changes were made to the forecast. The Dense Fog
Advisory was allowed to expire out at 10 AM. Conditions
surrounding fog continue to improve through the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 456 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025

As of the most recent surface analysis, surface high pressure is
firmly established across much of the eastern CONUS. Concurrently,
an occluding surface low is centered over James Bay, with its
associated cold front extending southwestward through the Great
Lakes, into the Central Plains, and northwestward through western
Montana. Locally, the region remains under the influence of this
surface high, which has primarily favored clear skies. However, the
lingering low-level moisture from antecedent rainfall has
facilitated the development of widespread dense fog, leading to the
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory.

Forecast upper-level flow indicates a trough with an embedded jet
streak diving through the Great Lakes region. This upper-level
perturbation is supporting cyclogenesis associated with the
aforementioned James Bay low. To the southwest, upper-level ridging
and associated height rises are developing over the Mississippi
Valley. During the day, the upper-level trough will pivot southeast,
steering the James Bay surface low through eastern Canada and the
surface cold front through the Great Lakes toward the local area. A
dry cold FROPA is anticipated later today. The moisture-starved
nature of this front suggests minimal impact, likely limited to a
subtle increase in surface wind speed this afternoon. Throughout the
frontal passage, the building upper-level ridging and height rises
will continue to support the dominance of surface high pressure
through the day.

By later this evening, the ridge axis will shift
overhead and move eastward. As this occurs, southwesterly flow ahead
of an approaching upstream trough will build into the region,
ushering in WAA late Sunday night into Monday. Monday brings the
continued presence of surface high pressure, but the upper-level
southwesterly flow will sustain WAA. This pattern shift is courtesy
of an approaching upper-level trough that has been progressing
northeastward out of the Desert Southwest. By Monday, this upper-
level trough will be positioned over the Central Plains. The related
surface feature will then lift northeast through the Plains, with a
dry warm front also lifting northeastward and supporting the
aforementioned WAA for Monday.

In simpler terms, a dry front will cross the area today, but surface
high pressure will primarily dominate the period. Temperatures today
are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 50s. Behind the warm
front on Monday, highs will climb into the upper 50s in the north to
the lower 60s across the south. Overnight lows Sunday into Monday
will fall into the mid to upper 30s. All while the area remains dry.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 456 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025

The long-term forecast period begins with the approach of a surface
low from the southwest. The upper-level trough from the short-term
period will eject into the Ohio Valley, advecting a warm front
through the area beginning late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Showers associated with this frontal system are expected throughout
the day Tuesday. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible across the
CWA ahead of a quick-moving cold front. The severe weather threat
appears limited as forecast CAPE is marginal and vertical wind shear
is almost nonexistent.

The upper-level trough responsible for Tuesdays surface low will be
absorbed into the mean flow, but simultaneously, another stronger
trough is forecast to dive out of the northern Rockies into the
Upper Midwest. This second system is forecast to move through the
Great Lakes and drag another cold front through the area throughout
the day Wednesday before quickly exiting the area late Wednesday
night. Through the two frontal passages (Tuesdays and Wednesdays),
total rainfall accumulation will range from approximately 0.60
inches along and west of the I-75 corridor to 0.30 inches east of
the I-75 corridor.

Behind the exiting front on Wednesday night, surface high pressure
is forecast to build into the region and remain in place from
Thanksgiving through late Saturday night before another system is
progged to move in from the west.

The long-term period will be highlighted by a couple of mid-week
surface low-pressure systems, followed by high pressure building
into the region on Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be
pleasant and seasonal up until Thursday, when the cold front ushers
in a significantly colder air mass for Thanksgiving and Black
Friday. Behind the front, overnight low temperatures will bottom out
in the 20s for the mornings of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday before
beginning a warming trend for Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025

Surface high pressure continues to build over the area. All sites
have returned to VFR. Light and variable winds are expected for
the TAF window. However, fog is expected to develop again this
evening, likely causing a reduction in category to all TAF sites.
Fog may not be as dense or widespread as Sunday morning, but IFR
to MVFR conditions will result.

One limiting factor to watch for this evenings fog remains the
drier air moving in from the dry frontal passage earlier today. If
the surface dries out heading into this evening, fog would be
favored in the valley locations and may not effect the TAF sites
as much.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GINNICK