120
FXUS63 KJKL 072025
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
325 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow accumulations are anticipated behind a cold frontal
  passage late tonight/Monday, primarily north of the Cumberland
  River Basin. The highest totals are forecast east of US-23.

- Southwesterly winds will become gusty on Tuesday and Wednesday
  ahead of a stronger mid-week system.

- The pattern remains active through the end of the work week,
  although confidence remains low in each passing system`s
  precipitation type forecast.

- A much colder airmass is forecast to move into the region next
  week, with widespread low temperatures in the teens likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 323 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025

The latest surface analysis depicts a surface high-pressure system
centered over the Piedmont Plateau, east of the Appalachian
Mountains, extending its influence to bring fair weather across much
of the eastern CONUS. North and northwest of the forecast area,
however, multiple weak shortwave troughs are rapidly tracking toward
the Commonwealth. The first weak disturbance is positioned over the
eastern Great Lakes with minimal impact on the weather of eastern
Kentucky. Trailing from this feature is a  quasi-stationary boundary
southward through the Ohio Valley. Attached to the trailing edge of
this boundary is a clipper system currently over central Illinois
and rapidly approaching the CWA. A third disturbance is situated
over the Piney Woods region of eastern Texas and western Louisiana.
Outside of these approaching disturbances, the region is dominated
by the surface high pressure, leading to mostly clear skies and
relatively mild temperatures. Current temperatures across the area
have warmed into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

The influence of the surface high pressure will initially persist;
however, all the aforementioned systems are forecast to track
northeast and increase PoP chances later tonight through the early
morning. The upper-level trough and associated surface low-pressure
wave near the Gulf Coast are forecast to track northeastward along
the frontal boundary associated with the central Illinois feature.
The bulk of tonights precipitation is expected to result from the
combined influence of these two disturbances. The current forecast
indicates rain showers developing ahead of the cold front after 03Z.
With CAA expected on the backside of the system, the atmospheric
column will cool rapidly, causing the rain showers to transition to
a rain-snow mix and then predominantly snow before 08Z. Recent model
guidance has trended cooler for overnight temperatures, and forecast
QPF values have increased by a few hundredths of an inch. Due to
this combination, forecast snowfall totals have increased for
Martin, Floyd, Pike, and Letcher counties. Consequently, a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for these locations, where snow
accumulations greater than an inch are now anticipated. Areas not
included in the advisory but located north of a line extending from
Somerset to Harlan are still expected to see light snow
accumulations, but these are not forecast to meet advisory criteria.
Therefore, an SPS has been issued to address the lesser threats in
those locations. Areas not covered by an advisory or SPS will
primarily see rain to isolated instances of rain-snow mix from this
passing feature. The upper-level trough is forecast to rapidly eject
northeastward later Monday afternoon, and the chance of snow will
quickly diminish. Subsequent upper-level height rises will usher in
a return of surface high pressure for the remainder of the forecast
period.

The forecast period begins with another day of dry conditions
featuring partly sunny skies and cloud breaks. This will be followed
by the quick-moving clipper system which will introduce
precipitation, starting as rain and then transitioning to a rain-
snow mix and then snow tonight into Monday morning as the colder air
arrives. Surface high pressure returns for the end of the forecast
period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025

At the open of the extended forecast, Tuesday will feature dry
conditions with a mix of sun and clouds. Southwesterly winds will
gradually increase through the day. This is due to another system
working into the area for Wednesday. Tightening pressure gradients
ahead of the system will lead to breezy conditions Tuesday, and gusty
conditions on Wednesday. Tuesday, southwesterly winds of 10-15 mph
with gusts 20-25 mph can be expected. High temperatures rise into
the mid to upper 40s for most locations through the afternoon, with
temperatures at night remaining above freezing, in the mid 30s.
The exception being The Black Bear Mountain area which is forecast
to drop near or slightly below 30.

By day-break Wednesday, the tight pressure gradient will be
accompanied by a low-level jet. At current, the latest 00Z data of
the ENS, a member of the LREF ensemble, continues to suggest a 25-
40% chance of wind gusts reaching wind advisory criteria (above 40
mph for any duration). While these probabilities have dropped some
from the 12Z run, there has been a fairly consistent signal of
abnormally breezy to gusty conditions. This is also reflected in the
shift of tails methodology using the ECMWF model runs. It has been
noted in previous discussions that the particular data source of the
ENS does have a high bias and tends to overdue winds. BUFKIT
momentum transfer had also previously shown a downward trend, with
forecast sites showing surface winds below or near 30 kts. This has
since changed, at least if looking at the GFS (another aggressive
model). The GFS now has momentum transfer winds at the surface
slightly greater than 35 kts at multiple locations in the forecast
areas. As we get closer to Wednesday more of the CAM models will be
able to aid. The NAM BUFKIT soundings do suggest momentum transfer
winds of roughly 25 kts. Either way, with 40 to 50 kt winds
modeled at 925-mb, strong to gusty winds are certainly a
possibility. Have currently left wind gusts around 25-30 mph for the
area. Locally higher gusts above 40 mph certainly remain possible.
Given the time of year it should be mentioned that winds of this
magnitude are likely to blow any unsecured holiday decorations. With
strong southwesterly winds through the day. WAA should allow
temperatures to rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s. A slight chance
or rain showers exits early in the morning across the north,
starting with Fleming county. As the morning and day continues a
front will drop through the area heading southeast. This will
increase chances and coverage, though only a few hundredths are
expected. Lows will range from the upper 20s to low 30s at night.

With the passage of an upper-level low Wednesday evening, winds
shift from SW to NW and become lighter overnight. This will lead to
colder air advecting into the region for Thursday. Taking a moment
to step back and look at the overall pattern, it should be noted
that a somewhat strong ridge of high pressure remain over the
Eastern Pacific and Western US coast. What this means for sensible
weather for Eastern Kentucky is that a series of clipper-like
systems will "spill" over this ridge over the later half of next
week. This next clipper-like system does just that for Thursday. At
current, this system looks to come out of the Pacific Northwest and
Northern Rockies before moving southeast into the area. If it takes
a more southerly track, south of the state, wintery precip may be
favored. Right now a mix or different precipitation types is in the
forecast given the uncertainty of track and available cold air.
Temperatures will range from the upper 30s to low 40s Thursday with
lows dropping into the low to mid 20s.

Friday as another clipper like system starts to spill over the ridge
out West, another upper-level disturbance over The Upper Great Lakes
is modeled to progress southeast into the Ohio River Valley and Mid-
Atlantic. While models are hinting at some isobaric packing, there
currently doesn`t look like there`s any upper level winds or
indications of momentum transfer towards the surface to indicate
gusty winds. Model spread increases heading into next weekend, so
timing and precipitation details for the Friday type system and
impacts remains a challenge. What is becoming increasingly probable
is the presence of near record braking cold air. Some locations may
be within 5 to 10 degrees of their established record lows, which
currently remain in the upper single digits to low teens. Overall,
temperatures towards next weekend look to be 15-20 degrees below
normal.

Cold air remains in the place Saturday, with highs likely remaining
in the 20s for most of the area. At current, models show the area
briefly in between systems before the next in a series of systems
arrives Sunday. Lows Saturday night are currently around 10 to 15
degrees across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025

VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites with this
issuance. However, a clipper system is forecast to move into the
region later tonight bringing initially rain then quickly
transitioning to rain-snow mix then all snow through 12Z.
Terminals KJKL and KSJS are likely to see the biggest impacts with
this system with KSME and KLOZ being on the southern fringe of
this clipper. KSYM will see some reduction in category but not to
the extent of KJKL or KSJS. CIGS are forecast to fall into
categorical MVFR around 03Z and IFR around 06-07Z and remain there
through the period. Light and variable winds are forecast through
the TAF window.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 5 PM EST Monday for KYZ110-
118>120.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...VORST