807
FXUS63 KJKL 050844
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
344 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry precipitation, primarily snow, though mixed with sleet,
  freezing rain, rain or freezing drizzle, will taper from the
  northwest through late morning.

- Some additional light accumulation and travel impacts are
  probable for portions of southeast KY within the Winter Weather
  Advisory.

- The pattern remains active through the end of the forecast
  period, although confidence remains low in each passing system`s
  precipitation type and accumulation forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025

Regional radar shows the back edge of the steadier precipitation,
extending from roughly Inez to Somerset at 0830Z, gradually
sinking southeast early this morning. Precipitation has been in
the form of snow for many, but a warm nose of air aloft has led to
some sleet and rain mixing in (both liquid and freezing) across
portions of those counties adjacent to the KY-VA border. Webcams
show minor accumulations across much of the area near and south of
the Mountain Parkway. Temperatures range from the mid-20s north
of I-64, closer to a frigid air mass in place north of the Ohio
River, to the mid-30s in the deepest valleys around Middlesboro
and Harlan. The latest surface analysis shows a frontal boundary
extending north from an approximately 1015 mb low just off the
coast of the Florida Panhandle to a weak wave over the Southern
Appalachians. Well upstream, a weak low pressure system is noted
over Northern Ontario, while a cold front extends southwest into
the Northern Plains. Aloft, a weakly troughed to largely zonal
flow with embedded disturbances is noted across the CONUS east of
the Rockies.

The aforementioned low will pull away to the east this morning,
causing the precipitation shield to shift east with it, likely
exiting the easternmost extreme portions of the CWA by around
10-11 AM EST. Additional snowfall through that time should be an
inch or less and largely in the two tiers of counties adjacent to
the KY-VA border. A weak ridge of high pressure will build across
the Commonwealth later in the day under weak height rises.
However, soundings suggest that moisture will remain trapped under
a sharp low-level inversion, leading to continued low clouds and
ridgetop fog today and tonight. This will continue to limit
diurnal temperature ranges. Meanwhile, the cold front and an
associated upper-level disturbance, initially over the Northern
Plains at the start of the forecast period, will dive southeast.
The front stalls northwest of the Commonwealth, deserted by the
upper-level energy which passes over eastern Kentucky on Saturday.
Soundings suggest sufficient mid-level moistening for at least a
few flurries or sprinkles over the northern third to half of the
forecast area, but overall moisture and lift will be minimal.
Abundant cloud cover will once again limit diurnal heating.

In sensible terms, look for lingering snow or mixed precipitation
over southeastern Kentucky to taper off from the northwest
through late this morning. Abundant cloud cover and ridgetop fog
will then persist through the remainder of the period. There will
be a low chance for a few more sprinkles or flurries on Saturday,
primarily near and north of the Mountain Parkway, with no impacts
anticipated. Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to peak in
the low to mid-30s north to the lower 40s in deep southeastern
valleys. For tonight, anticipate some fog in addition to the low
clouds, as temperatures sink back into the 25F to 30F range. On
Saturday, temperatures should be slightly warmer, ranging from the
mid-30s to mid-40s, north to south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025

The forecast period commences with surface high pressure building
across the region in the wake of Fridays departing synoptic system.
Aloft, persistent upper-level southwesterly flow is anticipated,
which will sustain relatively mild temperatures for Saturday.
However, a pronounced temperature gradient is forecast to establish
itself over the area. Concurrently on Saturday, a perturbation
translating within a stalled upper-level trough positioned over the
Hudson Bay will advect a predominantly dry cold front southeastward
through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. Deterministic
model runs indicate this mostly dry frontal boundary will traverse
the CWA; yet, due to the limited moisture available, PoP are
forecast to be negligible. Subsequently, an approaching shortwave
trough and an associated surface low-pressure feature moving out of
the Rockies will track eastward along this established zone of
baroclinicity.

This secondary, more moisture-rich system is expected to yield
higher precipitation probabilities, with a mixture of rain and snow
beginning early Sunday morning and enduring through late Monday
morning. The specific precipitation type will be critically
temperature-driven; daytime thermal profiles are generally
supportive of rain, whereas overnight temperatures will favor a
wintry mix or snow.Model confidence remains low concerning the
precise thermal profiles and the exact track of the low-pressure
center. Consequently, there is limited confidence in current
deterministic snowfall totals. Following the departure of this
system, surface high pressure is expected to rebuild across the area
for Tuesday. However, model trends suggest yet another system will
approach the region by the end of the forecast period, potentially
bringing another round of rain, wintry precipitation, and the risk
of stronger winds, particularly on Wednesday.

The entire period is characterized by multiple synoptic disturbances
traversing the area, introducing a variety of precipitation types
punctuated by transient interludes of high pressure. Temperatures
throughout the forecast are generally expected to remain below
average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025

IFR or lower conditions with snow and fog are generally expected
at the terminals for the remainder of the overnight, with the
exception being KSYM where MVFR cigs are expected and no
precipitation. Snow should continue spreading east through 09Z
and and then begin to taper off from the west thereafter. A brief
mix with freezing rain or rain may occur before the precipitation
tapers off into early Friday. Reduced ceilings of MVFR north and
IFR or lower south should linger through the TAF period even as
the precipitation tapers during the 12Z to 18Z timeframe. Winds
will generally be light and variable throughout the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for KYZ068-
069-079-080-083>086-107-109-112-114-116.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ087-
088-110-113-115-117>120.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC