717
FXUS63 KJKL 290734
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
334 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant fall-like weather continues through this weekend,
  featuring mild, sunny days and cool nights.

- Aside from the chance of a few sprinkles for a few locations
  this afternoon and evening, dry weather should prevail through
  the weekend.

- Rain chances return for Labor Day though the middle of next
  week, but a widespread soaking rainfall is not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2025

A cold front will slowly move south across the forecast area this
afternoon into the early evening on the south side of a mid-level
jet streak rounding the base of a mid-level cut-off low centered
over far southeastern Canada. Weakening northwesterly flow aloft
will then persist through the end of the short-term period
Saturday afternoon, with the primary mid-latitude jet stream
shifting well south of the area.

Models suggest a well-mixed atmosphere this afternoon with plenty
of dry air in the boundary layer below the expected cloud base
layer of around 7kft to 8kft. This will limit the potential for
any isolated shower activity to reach the ground. For this
reason, 1-hourly PoPs were kept below the 15 percent threshold
that would warrant mention in the point-and-click and text
forecasts. However, a few sprinkles or raindrops are certainly
possible.

After highs today in the upper 70s to mid-80s, temperatures will
only cool off a degree or two for Saturday, as the better push of
cooler air behind the front gets ushered quickly into the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast. Lows tonight will again fall into the
upper 40s to mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2025

Weak cyclonic flow aloft persists over the Eastern U.S. the second
half of the weekend into at least the middle of next week, with a
weak mid-latitude jet stream remaining well displaced to the
south through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, low-level high
pressure will strengthen this weekend into early next week across
the northern and northeastern CONUS, increasing easterly and then
southeasterly flow along with increasing warm/moist advection
from the western Atlantic into the region.

The result of this will be a ramping up of PoPs from Sunday
(limited to the immediate VA border area) becoming more widespread
across eastern Kentucky by Monday and persisting through the
remainder of the long-term period Thursday night. As of right now,
the highest PoPs are depicted for Tuesday by the NBM as eastern
Kentucky is forecast to reside near a warm front extending
southwest to northeast across the area.

Of additional concern for the mid- and late-week period is a
digging jet stream and deep cut-off low diving southeast toward
the Upper Midwest and Upper Mississippi River Valley mid-week,
pushing a stronger cold front across the area sometime around
Thursday within a significant re-amplification of the upper
pattern. Would thus not be surprised if PoPs continue to trend
upwards for Wednesday and/or Thursday if models continue trending
in this direction. The bottom line is that this period is looking
increasingly more unsettled, but there are details on timing and
possible rainfall amounts to be resolved.

The NBM continues trending cooler for next week, especially for
daytime highs, as there seemingly becomes increasingly better
agreement among its constituent members that unsettled weather
returns to the region. Thus, it appears below normal temperatures
are expected to continue for at least the next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2025

Nocturnal valley fog will continue to be an issue across eastern
Kentucky this morning. However, any vsby reductions will be
outside of terminals. Otherwise, VFR CIGs will prevail, even
with a weak cold front crossing the area this afternoon. Winds
will remain light through this morning, but will pick up in the
afternoon to 5 to 10 kts from the northwest with the cold front
passage before diminishing to 5 kts or less from the northeast
behind the cold front tonight.



&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC