238
FXUS63 KJKL 031147 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
647 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm conditions are expected today and continue into Wednesday ahead
  of a cold front that will reach eastern Kentucky Wednesday
  night.

- This cold front will bring widespread rain and meaningful rain
  rain totals to most locations from Wednesday into early on
  Thursday.

- A cooling trend will take place during the second half of the
  week into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2026

Grids were freshened up based on recent observation trends. This
led to no substantial changes at this point. Valley fog present
in some locations south of the Mountain Parkway should lift and
dissipate within a couple of hours after sunrise. Otherwise,
a mile day is in store with temperatures expected to climb to 10
to 15 degrees above normal for early November.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2026

Early this morning, the axis of an upper level ridge extended from
sections of Mexico across western portions of the Gulf and then into
the Southeast to near the Appalachians. Meanwhile the axis of an
upper level trough extended from west of Hudson Bay to near the
Ontario and Manitoba border into the Plains/Central Conus. Within
this trough an upper level low was centered over KS. Further west,
an upper level ridge extended from portions of the Pacific into the
southwest Conus to Northern Rockies vicinity. At the surface,
high pressure was centered off the mid Atlantic coast with ridging
extending west into the mid Atlantic states to sections of the
Central to Southern Appalachians to OH Valley. A frontal zone
associated with the trough in the Central Conus extended from the
upper MS Valley to Central to Southern Plains. Locally, mainly
just a few high clouds were crossing eastern KY at present, with
valley fog having developed per satellite imagery and KY Mesonet
webcams. Temperatures as of 3 AM EST ranged from the mid to upper
40s in the more sheltered valleys to mainly the 50s elsewhere.

Today and tonight, the axis of upper ridging will shift further east
to the Southeast US coast to the mid Atlantic by this evening and
then to the eastern seaboard tonight. At the same time, the upper
level low currently centered near KS is expected to cutoff as the
northern portion of the trough shears to the north and east into
Canada. This upper low will trek to the northeast today and tonight
reaching the the IA/MN border vicinity late tonight. Meanwhile, a
lead shortwave trough will reach the MS Valley this evening and
then enter the Lower OH Valley tonight. The associated sfc low
should be centered in the IA vicinity this evening and then move
into the upper MS Valley/MN/WI border vicinity by late tonight.
The trailing cold front/frontal zone should sweep east to the MS
Valley and then to the Lower OH Valley to northwestern Gulf toward
dawn on Wednesday. This system will transport moisture into the
OH Valley and eastern KY from the south and southwest. Mean PW per
the 00Z REFS is progged to climb from the 0.85 inch near VA
border area to 1.35 inch near Lake Cumberland range this evening
to the 1.1 inches near the VA border to 1.6 inches near Lake
Cumberland range or to roughly the 93rd to 99th percentile for
this this time of year. Showers ahead of the shortwave trough and
boundary should arrive into areas near the I-75 corridor first and
spread across western sections of the area toward dawn on
Wednesday. Winds aloft will increase from the south southeast to
south as the system approaches this evening and tonight and with
925 mb winds reaching roughly 30 to 40KT per the RAP and 850 mb
winds climbing to the 30 to 50KT range late tonight. Some of this
higher momentum could reach into the higher terrain above 2500 or
3000 feet in the form of gusts into the 30 to 40 mph range.
Sustained wind speeds and gusts in the higher elevation areas
were increased above the NBM deterministic values.

Wednesday and Wednesday night, the upper level low meanders toward
the western Great Lakes with a trough axis southwest into the
Central Plains to NM as the period ends. Meanwhile, the lead
shortwave trough should reach the eastern Great Lakes to Southern
Appalachians by late tonight. At the same time, the sfc low will
trek into the Great Lakes to portions of Canada while the trailing
cold front gradually moves across the Commonwealth and nears the VA
border late. Mean PW per the 00Z REFS is progged to peak in the 1.3
to 1.6 inch range or the 97th to 99th percentile on Wednesday.
Moisture decreases from west to east Wednesday evening into
Wednesday night, with mean PW per the 00Z REFS dropping to the 55th
to 80th percentile range late Wednesday night.

There remains a good amount of uncertainty with event total rainfall
from showers and some thunderstorms as the lead shortwave trough and
front move into and through the area. Some locally higher amounts
may focus in areas that experience thunderstorms, while the low
level flow will have a downslope component off of the higher
terrain in SW VA and the Pine Mountain/VA border area. This would
support a min in QPF in that area downwind of Pine Mountain. NBM
QPF decreased across the board compared to 24 hours ago,
particularly in areas downwind of the VA border. 00Z REFS 10th
percentile rainfall through 7 AM EST on Thursday is around or less
than a quarter of an inch in some areas of the southeast downwind
of the higher terrain near the VA border similar to the NBM.
Meanwhile, higher end amounts, 90th percentile totals from the 00Z
REFS were in the 0.85 to 1.8 inch range. Overall, the potential
is there for rain-shadowing and lower amounts in parts of the
southeast downwind of the higher terrain despite the presence of a
good amount of moisture in the column for this time of year.
Locally heavier amounts could occur in any areas that experience
multiple thunderstorms.

WPC has maintained a marginal risk (Level 1/4) for excessive
rainfall for the Wednesday to Wednesday night timeframe. The recent
dry weather remains a mitigating factor.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 425 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2026

Behind the shortwave trough and a cold front departing to the
east, drier air will spread across the remainder of eastern KY on
Thursday. This will result in a trend to drier weather as a trough
begins to take shape over sections of the Central to eastern
Conus. The upper low that will have reached the Great Lakes is
progged to weaken to an open wave as it moves into Canada and a
500 mb shortwave trough axis should trek across the Great Lakes
and near the Lower OH Valley by late Thursday night or Friday.
Another upper low may develop in the Great Lakes vicinity and
track into the Northeast/St Lawrence Valley to begin the weekend,
while the 500 mb shortwave trough axis moves across the OH Valley
and eastern KY area later Friday into early on Saturday. Another
sfc cold front associated with trough will cross eastern KY at
that point. Guidance generally has an increase in low and mid
level rh with this boundary but moisture will be quite limited
this far to the south. Isolated showers producing light rainfall
cannot be ruled out. Yet another upper low/shortwave trough may
move into eastern Canada to eastern Conus troughing to end the
weekend and pass north of the OH Valley and send another cold
front across eastern KY.

With upper level troughing moving across the eastern Conus this
weekend, before shifting east of the OH Valley and eastern KY
early next week, northwest flow aloft will be present. A trend to
near normal if not a bit below normal temperatures is anticipated.
Highs are forecast to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s this
weekend, before temperatures trend colder for Sunday night and
Monday behind the second cold front as sfc high pressure builds
in. Lows could near the freezing mark or possibly fall below
freezing for several valley locations and low lying areas over
the weekend or early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2026

VFR was observed across much of the area to begin the period, with
valley fog likely resulting IFR or worse conditions in some non
TAF site locations. This fog should lift and dissipate through
around 14Z, and give way to VFR areawide. VFR ceilings should
prevail through the period as an upper ridge shifts to the east,
while an upper trough and associated cold front approaches from
the west. The return of mid clouds is anticipated after about 18Z
as moisture begins to increase in advance of the approaching
system, with some low clouds arriving during the last 12 hours of
the period. Showers should begin to arrive from the west to end
the period. Winds are expected to remain southeast to south at
10KT or less through the period, except stronger winds are
possible in the higher terrain near the VA border mainly after
00Z. Winds, especially aloft will increase late in the period and
some marginal LLWS cannot be ruled out. Opted to include the
threat of low level wind shear at JKL where surface winds are
forecast to be lightest.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP