416
FXUS63 KJKL 101155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
755 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorm chances will persist through the end of
  the week. The greatest coverage is expected from Tuesday through
  Friday. Some of those storms could arrive as organized clusters
  with a potential for strong to damaging wind gusts.

- Isolated to scattered instances of excessive rainfall may occur
  where storms are most persistent, leading to elevated concerns
  for flooding - especially for mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows weak high pressure centered in eastern
Tennessee holding sway over the weather for the area early this
morning. This has resulted in thinning high clouds and light winds
allowing for some radiational cooling and fog formation in the
valleys - initially in the far southeast but spreading north and
west with time. Given this environment, temperatures are showing
some variation - from low 70s on the ridges to the upper 60s in
the valleys. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints
remain in the muggy mid to upper 60s most places.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in broad
agreement concerning the overall pattern but differ on the more
subtle features that will impact our weather through the short
term portion of the forecast. They all depict mid-level flow
becoming slightly more northwesterly through Tuesday on the
northeast side of a persistent 5h ridge over the Four Corners
region. Several impulses will move southeast within the flow
through Tuesday and beyond. A decent one is passing by to the
northeast this morning but with little sensible weather to show
for it - as of yet. The next one appears inbound for the area
later tonight followed by another better defined perturbation for
Tuesday afternoon/evening. Each of these will provide the support
for anticipated storm clusters through much of the week but when
and where they track remains highly uncertain with the loose
consensus for eastern Ohio and West Virginia most "under the
gun" at least with these first waves. Given the small spread in
the models` solutions for the broad pattern aloft, the unadjusted
NBM was used for the bulk of the grids in the forecast. However,
some enhancements were made to the PoPs and thunder chances today
through Tuesday evening primarily via the inclusion of coverage
and intensity details from the consensus CAMs` solutions - though
again generously smoothed and extrapolated, at times.

Sensible weather will feature continued late season summertime
hot and humid conditions with isolated to scattered, diurnally
driven, storm chances generally each afternoon and early evening.
For today, we will probably see the lowest coverage of the week
with the main threat likely holding off until evening and starting
in the north. The majority of the high resolution models favor
bringing a round of storms into the area after sunset from the
north, though the latest (06Z) HRRR has tamped it down while the
NAM has leaned into these clusters impacting eastern Kentucky
through the night. Accordingly, confidence in the details remain
near rock bottom. Should we see those clusters, temperatures will
be fairly uniform tonight with little in the way of dense fog
developing. Otherwise, should the latest HRRR prove more correct,
a small terrain based temperature split is possible along with
some typical valley fog. Certainly excessive rains will be a big
threat along with gusty to damaging winds on the leading edge of
any cluster which we should all prepare for even if the specifics
remain murky. Tuesday proper will probably see better overall
coverage of storms during the day but the stronger more organized
ones will also be highly dependent on sfc boundaries left behind
from earlier convection. Barring a washout system working through,
temperatures will again reach the upper 80s and lower 90s on
Tuesday afternoon yielding heat indices peaking between 95 to 100
degrees.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include
the latest CAMs consensus scenario for the PoPs and thunder
potential throughout the short term. Considering the high humidity
levels limiting the impacts of radiational cooling at night and
any dry air mixdown for the afternoons (as well as the convective
uncertainty) - both elements were only slightly tweaked.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 505 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026

The most current model data continues to present a pattern aloft
that favors the formation of storm clusters - any of which could
intrude on the weather for eastern Kentucky through the bulk of
the week. Right now, SPC has Tuesday highlighted as the greatest
concern for severe weather (damaging winds) from this development
with a Slight Risk outlined in our northeast counties - will
continue to highlight this in messaging and social media. Please
keep monitoring this developing, potentially impactful, weather
situation.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Eastern Kentucky is still poised to experience rather active weather
during the long term forecast period, although specific details
remain shrouded in mesoscale uncertainty. Confidence is increasing
that swaths of very heavy rainfall will set up across portions of
the Ohio River Valley as a significant pattern change takes place.
An amplifying ridge over the South-Central CONUS will budge up
against the forecast area on Tuesday and turn the flow aloft
northwesterly. A series of low-predictability shortwave disturbances
will ride around the periphery of that ridge and produce multiple
organized thunderstorm complexes known as MCSes (Mesoscale
Convective Systems). Seasonably warm temperatures (highs in the
mid/upper 80s and lows near 70) and a very moist airmass (dewpoints
in the 70s and PWATs between 1.7 and 1.9 inches) combine to provide
more than enough instability for strong thunderstorms. Each passing
shortwave will provide sufficient shear for these organized storm
complexes, which could modify their own environment as they evolve.
Textbook theory suggests that the SW side of each complex could be a
prime area for renewed development with subsequent rounds, and we
will also need to monitor for any residual outflow boundaries left
behind by earlier rounds. While the first rounds of activity are
progged to primarily affect NE KY and the Big Sandy Basin, the
threat should shift southwest over time. This is reflected in the
SPC and WPC outlooks.

With the afternoon forecast update, SPC added a Slight Risk of
severe weather on Tuesday for most of the JKL CWA. Damaging wind
gusts are the favored convective hazard type given the MCS/clustered
storm mode, but mesoscale boundaries could yield a localized risk
for additional hazard types. Any severe weather risk will be
accompanied by a threat for excessive rainfall, and WPC has
maintained a Slight (Level 2/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook for NE KY
on Tuesday. These NE locales will be the areas with the potential
for antecedently wet grounds from activity during the short term
forecast period. Given the more widespread coverage of strong storms
and heavy rain on Tuesday though, the Slight ERO expands to the
entire CWA on Wednesday. Flash flooding is most likely wherever
storms engage in training and/or backbuilding behaviors. So, we will
need to monitor the output of higher-resolution forecast models for
parameter spacing that favors said behaviors.

All of this activity will culminate in the approach of a cold front
in the latter stages of the period. In general, increased late week
cloud cover should work to suppress the early week heat as time
passes. Temperatures are forecast to modulate back towards more
climatologically-appropriate values in NE KY by Thursday while
higher temperatures remain in the forecast for the Cumberland River
basin. The resultant temperature gradient is visible in the grids on
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, which tracks given that forecast
guidance has trended towards the aforementioned boundary stalling
out in the vicinity of the area. On the south side of this boundary,
there will be additional rounds of showers and storms. The intensity
and organization of that late-period activity is highly uncertain,
but this trend towards a prolonged period of wet weather is
concerning. Stay tuned for further forecast updates, and ensure that
you have multiple reliable ways to receive watches and warnings
should they be needed.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026

VFR conditions are prevailing at all the TAF sites at the start
of the 12Z forecast period. The valley fog is not too extensive
this morning and will dissipate over the next hour or so. Then
attention turnd to the possibility of more showers/thunderstorms
developing during the day. However, there isn`t enough confidence
for anything more than a PROB30 group in TAFs, and pretty much
after sunset - especially those sites outside of the Cumberland
Valley. A better chance of storms may intrude from the north to
northwest later tonight and PROB30s have been included for this
affecting the sites outside of the Cumberland Valley most
directly. Away from any storms, winds will be light at less than
10 kts generally from the southwest through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF