313
FXUS63 KJKL 221754
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1254 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active weather continues into next week, with a strong cold
  front expected to cross the Commonwealth by mid-week.

- A colder, but drier, airmass will move into the region for the
  start of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025

Refreshed the forecast with the latest observations across the
forecast area, and also added shower chances across far Eastern
Kentucky to address the secondary line of light shower activity
going on across Martin, Floyd, and Pike counties. Overall forecast
remains largely unchanged.

UPDATE Issued at 727 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025

Just a quickly little refresh to the forecast to incorporate the
latest surface observations. Also, touched up PoP based on the
latest radar trends. Grids have been saved and sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 432 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025

The latest surface analysis depicts a quasi-stationary front
meandering along the Ohio River, oriented west to east. This
boundary is connected to a surface low-pressure system centered over
the Missouri Bootheel. A trailing cold front extends southward from
this low, through the ArkLaTex region and into northern Mexico.
Locally, showers and thunderstorms are currently traversing the CWA,
producing instances of heavy rainfall.

Through the remainder of the morning, convective activity associated
with the quasi-stationary front and the advancing cold front will
persist across the CWA, leading to continued instances of heavy
rainfall. As the synoptic surface low and its associated frontal
boundaries track eastward across the Commonwealth, the cold frontal
passage is anticipated later this morning into the early afternoon
hours. Following the exiting system, surface high pressure will
rapidly build into the region, leading to cooler and drier
conditions for the rest of today and through the end of the short-
term forecast period.

The highlight of the short-term period is the cold frontal passage
later today, which will usher surface high pressure back over the
area. Daytime high temperatures today are forecast to reach the
upper 50s to lower 60s Fahrenheit, before dropping into the upper
30s to lower 40s Fahrenheit tonight. Post-frontal CAA and the
dominant high pressure system will result in slightly cooler
conditions for Sunday, with high temperatures expected to climb only
into the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 432 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025

The long-term forecast period begins with the continued influence of
surface high pressure as an upper-level ridge begins to build across
the southern Plains. Concurrently, an upper-level trough featuring
an embedded jet streak to the northeast will help to drive a dry
cold front through the CWA Sunday night into Monday. This moisture-
starved cold front is expected to pass without significant weather
impacts, as surface high pressure remains the dominant feature into
early next week. During this same timeframe, a progressive upper-
level shortwave trough will track northeastward from the Four
Corners region toward the Central Plains by early Monday morning.
The CWA is forecast to remain dry for Monday; however, as the
associated surface low-pressure system continues its eastward track,
increasing chances for showers will arrive late Monday night into
early Tuesday. Showers and isolated thunderstorm chances will then
be present from the time of the frontal arrival on Tuesday through
the subsequent cold frontal passage late Wednesday night. A cold
surface high-pressure system will subsequently build back into the
region for Thanksgiving Day and remain overhead through Black Friday.

The long-term period will be highlighted by a midweek surface low-
pressure system that becomes situated between two centers of high
pressure. Temperatures are expected to be pleasant and seasonal up
until Thursday, when the cold front ushers in a significantly colder
air mass for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Overnight low
temperatures will follow this same trend before bottoming out in the
20s for the mornings of Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025

Current conditions range from LIFR, IFR and MVFR as low clouds
from earlier rain showers reduced these categories. Throughout the
day, there will be very slow and gradual improvement to VFR as
surface high pressure builds back into the region. Winds are
forecast to be light and variable through the TAF window.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GINNICK