757
FXUS63 KJKL 021800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across
  the area through Thursday, with the highest probabilities
  immediately ahead of a cold front on Thursday.

- Widespread rainfall totals between 0.5 to 1.0 inches is likely
  with locally higher totals up to 1.5 inches are possible in the
  Cumberland River basin.

- Below normal temperatures are expected through the period, and
  the coolest low temperatures are forecast next weekend behind a
  secondary cold front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025

The lone rogue shower in our northeast over portions of Pike and
Martin counties is finally dissipating. Our expectation is still
for convection to develop over Middle Tennessee and the Lake
Cumberland areas early this afternoon, where the greatest
instability, is now present and gradually spread northeast
through the sunset.

UPDATE Issued at 905 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025

A couple of showers have already developed this morning, the
first near the Tennessee border in far southeastern Kentucky
while a second rogue shower developed over Elliott County. Still
anticipate that convection will increase through the late morning/afternoon,
generally from southwest to northeast, with the greatest coverage
and intensity in the I-75 Corridor counties and across the Lake
Cumberland area.

UPDATE Issued at 655 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025

Did a quick refresh of the grids to account for current radar
trends as showers and storms have started to develop to our south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 451 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025

An area of surface high pressure is centered over Maine, but its
influence is providing much of the northeastern CONUS and Midwest
with mostly clear skies and dry weather. Locally, similar conditions
are in place. The clear skies have also allowed for locally dense
river valley fog to develop, primarily in the Cumberland and Big
Sandy river valleys. However, a weak surface low is centered over
western Tennessee with a weak frontal boundary oriented into the
Commonwealth.

Throughout the rest of today, most of the area will experience
mostly dry weather, with highs climbing into the upper 70s and low
80s. However, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the quasi-front/inverted trough that is oriented across the
Commonwealth. Forecast sounding SBCAPE values suggest that up to
1,500 J/kg of instability will be available this afternoon, but with
bulk shear values under 20 knots, severe storms are not likely.
Additionally,PW values of around 1.30 inches exist, which is
climatologically normal, but these widespread showers could help
alleviate the persistent drought conditions that have prevailed for
the past couple of weeks. Showers and storms will taper off toward
sunset, and clearing skies could bring locally dense valley fog.

While all this is happening on Tuesday, an upper-level trough will
begin to track southeast toward the Commonwealth. As the trough
pivots, its associated surface low and accompanying cold front will
slowly begin to approach the area on Wednesday afternoon. Models
show the first part of the day will be dry, but as the front
approaches, increasing shower and thunderstorm threats will exist
throughout the afternoon and into the evening.

The period will be highlighted by a chance of widespread showers and
storms this afternoon, with better chances arriving on Wednesday
afternoon. Temperatures will remain pleasant today, climbing into
the upper 70s and low 80s, with overnight lows falling into the mid
to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 451 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025

The start of the long-term period will feature the forecast area in
the midst of a cold frontal passage. Showers and storms are forecast
to continue overnight Wednesday into Thursday before FROPA occurs on
Thursday afternoon. Behind the exiting front, a surface high-
pressure system will build into the region. However, as another
perturbation tracks through a closed circulation, another system
will track from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes for Friday and
linger into Saturday. The two systems are forecast to Fujiwhara over
southern Canada and remain mostly stationary through the early part
of the weekend. The second system will bring a renewed threat for
showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday afternoon and persisting
through Saturday morning before the front exits on Saturday.

While the area will experience multiple rounds of showers and storms
throughout both the short- and long-term periods, the ground is
currently experiencing drought conditions and can handle multiple
rounds of showers; therefore, significant hydrological issues are
not expected.

The period will be marked by multiple upper-level disturbances that
will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity from
Wednesday through early Saturday morning. Several fronts will move
through the region, the first late Wednesday night and again late
Friday night. Temperatures will remain nearly seasonal, with highs
in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid-
50s. Behind the final front, below-average temperatures and dry
weather will build into the region for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed at TAF issuance
time and are leading to localized brief reductions in visibility
and/or ceilings. This activity will continue to increase in
coverage through the afternoon. The most widespread convection is
favored to occur near and west of I-75 with the least amount of
activity near and east of US-23. Convection will diminish later
this evening, allowing for some fog to develop, especially in the
favored in river valleys, though some impacts cannot be ruled out
at TAF terminals that experience rainfall this afternoon/evening.
The SME and LOZ TAF sites have the greatest opportunity for
experiencing convection through mid-evening while that threat is
lowest at SJS. Another round of showers and storms may develop
late tonight into early Wednesday morning but may be favored to
stay largely southeast of the terminals. Winds will be light and
variable, except the potentially for briefly gusty winds with
convection.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON