739
FXUS63 KJKL 150124
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
924 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, seasonably pleasant weather continues across eastern
  Kentucky through the work week.

- Temperatures will remain near or just above climatological
  averages for the duration of the forecast period.

- While confidence in specific details remains low, the next
  chance of showers/storms will come this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025

There remains very little that needs updating with this mid-
evening update. Continued to tweak Sky grids, with considerable
uncertainty as to the degree of stratus formation toward morning
across the area. Used a blend of the NBM, HREF, and GFS1hr Sky
grids through 12z Wednesday.

UPDATE Issued at 628 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025

Lowered the Sky grids in far eastern Kentucky along/near the
Virginia border through the evening as stratus has moved south
into Virginia. Otherwise, just updated the hourly T/Td grids using
the latest hourly observations as the initialization for forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 311 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025

Despite low stratus across portions of the area earlier in the
day, mostly sunny skies now prevail across all but far eastern
Kentucky (roughly east of US-23), with temperatures rising through
the upper 60s to mid-70s. Temperatures remain closer to 60F in
the far east where the lingering stratus persists. The latest
surface analysis shows weak northeasterly flow across our region,
courtesy of clockwise circulation around a strong ~1034 mb high
over southeast Manitoba. A stalled frontal boundary is noted well
to our north, from Lower Ontario through Lower Michigan and out
onto the Central Plains. Aloft, 500 hPa ridging dominates from
the Central Gulf Coast northward into the Upper Midwest and Great
Lake. A disturbance is riding over the ridge across the Upper
Mississippi Valley.

That disturbance will continue to traverse the ridge this
evening, then propagate down its eastern side on Wednesday as it
interacts with additional northern stream energy sinking southward
from Eastern Canada. Meanwhile, the ridge will continue to
translate eastward and slowly subside, as its attendant surface
high similarly weakens and passes over northern Ontario.
Northerly low-level flow will persist across the Northeast US
through the short-term period, sending the aforementioned frontal
boundary sagging southward to eventually cross eastern Kentucky on
Wednesday night into early Thursday. Model guidance from the
RAP13 and SPC HREF both hint at a possible stratus deck advecting
in from the northeast tonight, but overall confidence is low due
to a lack of broad model support. However, fog in the sheltered
river valleys is almost certain. Additional low stratus could
develop again Wednesday night with the frontal passage, but should
be limited overall by a lowering subsidence inversion.

In terms of sensible weather, cool and dry weather will continue
with persistent north to northeast breezes during the day and
light, variable winds at night. Mostly clear skies can be
expected, though patchy low stratus cannot be ruled out tonight or
Wednesday night. Nocturnal radiational fog is almost certain in
the typically favored sheltered river valleys. Wednesday`s highs
will be similar to today, ranging from the lower to middle 70s.
Nighttime lows trend cooler, in the mid 40s to lower 50s tonight,
settling back into the 40s for all locations on Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025

A ridge of high pressure will remain over Kentucky through Friday.
Thursday morning, the HREF is hinting at some low level clouds
around The Big Sandy, and with light northeasterly flow a low
stratus deck could be present such as this morning. However, looking
at some sounding profiles and model output from the NAM, drier air
(RH <40%) and subsidence appear present which may squash out or be
a challenge for any cloud decks sustaining through the morning. Fog
is also a possibility, though with any subsidence fog may be
confined to the deeper valleys and remain shallow in depth and
shouldn`t last deep into the morning, otherwise sunny skies can be
expected, with temperatures rising into the upper 60s to low 70s.
Mostly clear skies under light northeasterly winds will allow for
temperatures to drop into the upper 30s to low 40s at night.

Friday and Saturday, ridging begins to break down and push east of
the area through the afternoon, Friday. Meanwhile an incoming trough
approaches from the west. This will allow for southerly winds Friday
afternoon, and again Saturday. Warmer air will advect into the
region, leading to temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70s
along and south of the Hal-Rogers/KY-80 corridor, and low to mid 70s
north.  Saturday, stronger WAA will allow for temperatures to climb
into the upper 70s, and low 80s.  With added cloud cover
anticipated, and southerly winds temperatures cool into the 50s both
Friday and Saturday night.

A pattern change, and the next good chance at rain looks to occur
next weekend, as a low pressure system will mature and occlude over
the Midwest during the day Friday. With the occluded head located
over the ND/MN area, and its trailing cold front extending further
south down into Texas. This cold front is set to push across the
Mississippi Valley during the day Saturday (including Western
Kentucky), with its arrival into Eastern Kentucky later Saturday
afternoon and evening. A slight chance of thunderstorms will be
greatest early in the evening. Shower chances increase through the
overnight with heavy rainfall possible. Significant hydro concerns
are not anticipated due to the overall dry pattern much of the area
has been in. Showers look to continue through Sunday.

Along with showers on Sunday, breezy conditions are also possible,
with many models highlighting the potential for wind gusts of 20+
mph. That said, model to model runs have been jumpy and inconsistent
on details, so confidence remains low at this point on finer
details. However, the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for the area
shows that the forecast from the ECMWF falls in the 75th percentile
for being anomalous, while the 850 and 925 mb winds from the LREF
were at or above the 90th percentile. All this to say there is an
anomalous signal. Sunday and Monday, temperatures will remain fairly
cool, in the 60s, with night time lows in the 40s.

Tuesday, a ridge begins to build back into the area from the west,
allowing for WAA to return and temperatures to warm into the upper
60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025

Clear skies were observed at TAF issuance across the area, and
will continue into much of the overnight. Some of the guidance
suggests another stratus deck developing and sinking southwest
across portions of the area late tonight into early Wednesday --
forecast confidence in this materializing is low. However, fog
formation is almost certain again in the river valleys overnight
but should not impact the TAF sites. Northeasterly sustained
winds at 5 kts or less will diminish to light and variable
through much of tonight, then become northerly yet still light in
the afternoon Wednesday with a weak cold frontal passage.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC