443
FXUS63 KJKL 281014
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
614 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather with mild afternoons and cool nights will persist
  through the end of the work week.

- A potential for rain will return by Sunday and last into the new
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 436 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2026

Our dry and tranquil weather pattern continues early this morning,
courtesy of strong ~1034 mb surface high pressure over the St.
Lawrence Valley. Temperatures are substantially milder than recent
nights though, with readings ranging from the mid 40s in the
coldest sheltered valleys to the mid 50s on thermal belt ridges.
This is largely due to high clouds streaming across the eastern
Kentucky Coalfields early this morning. Looking aloft, this cloud
cover is associated with a weak upper-level disturbance passing
through a broad 500 hPa ridge over the Eastern CONUS. Upstream, a
similarly broad upper-level trough is found over the Western
CONUS.

The upper-level disturbance over the Ohio Valley will depart into
the Northeast today, taking the extensive high cloud cover with it
and bringing clearing skies from west to east this afternoon.
The ridging then prevails both aloft and at the surface through
the remainder of the short-term period. This will allow for strong
radiational cooling tonight, with a sharper ridge-valley temperature
split and more extensive fog likely through the favored river valleys.
This will be followed by bright sunshine and mild temperatures on
Thursday. Look for temperatures peaking in the mid 70s today/Thursday,
and dipping back into the lower 40s to lower 50s tonight/early
Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(After midnight Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 614 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2026

At the start of the long term period, 500 mb ridging will be
centered over the southeastern US, with a deep closed low over the
Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will initially
be located over far western Texas, translating northeastward with
time. At the surface, an associated area of low pressure will be
located near the Oklahoma/New Mexico border, with a surface high
just southeast of eastern Kentucky. As the initial shortwave
translates northeast, this low will lift northeastward as well,
dragging a frontal boundary northward with it. In eastern
Kentucky, a preexisting boundary will dissipate with time, being
displaced from upper level support and any low pressure center;
thus, expect dry weather to continue through the end of the
workweek under the influence of the midlevel ridge, with high
temperatures rising into the mid to upper 70s, above average for
this time of year. Overnight, cloud cover associated with the
approaching shortwave will build, keeping lows warm in the upper
40s and low 50s. Cloud cover should linger through the day on
Friday, suppressing temperatures. Highs will "only" rise into the
low to mid 70s.

Although the weather has been dry, Saturday night will bring the
first mentionable PoPs in over two weeks. A second shortwave will
approach the area, although there are still notable differences in
timing and impacts among deterministic guidance. The ECMWF favors
dry weather through the weekend, although this seems to be an
outlier solution at this time, with LREF probabilities for
measurable precipitation this weekend generally in the 50-60%
range for our southwestern counties, with these chances decreasing
closer to the West Virginia border. Regardless, atmospheric
moisture will be anomalously high at this time, with LREF mean PW
values in the 0.8-1.0 inch range across the forecast area on
Sunday morning, roughly in the 75th percentile or higher compared
to climatology for this time of year. With these ingredients in
place, those looking to enjoy festivities on Halloween night are
encouraged to monitor future forecast changes as the timing and
impact of this shortwave become clearer.

More substantial rain chances will arrive next week as the
remnants of Tropical Storm Vance drift northeast, interacting with
the upper level low initially located over the Pacific Northwest,
although this far out, details are still fuzzy due to increasing
model spread. At the surface, a well defined area of low pressure
should also push eastward toward the forecast area. Rain chances
will increase in the vicinity of this low`s associated warm
front, expected to lift north through eastern Kentucky. This
system will interact with the preexisting moist air mass,
increasing confidence in rainfall; however, with poor model
consistency at this stage, only scattered PoPs are in place early
next week, more a function of low confidence in the evolution of
this complicated pattern than a low chance for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at 06Z TAF issuance and should last
through the remainder of the predawn hours at the TAF sites.
Valley fog (with a potential for IFR or worse conditions) is
expected in some river valley locations overnight and early
Wednesday, but a ceiling of high clouds moving through the region
will probably keep the fog more limited than on other recent
nights. Once this fog dissipates on Wednesday morning, VFR
conditions will prevail area wide again through the rest of the
day amid light winds.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL/GREIF