172
FXUS63 KJKL 080836
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
436 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms persist across the
  entire area throughout the week.

- The greatest rain chances are today, Tuesday, Wednesday, and
  Friday and the potential for multiple rounds of locally heavy
  rainfall poses a risk for isolated flooding in this time frame.

- Warm and rather humid conditions are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 436 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026

Partly cloudy skies are found across eastern Kentucky this morning
while temperatures range from the lower to mid 60s in the cooler
valleys to the lower 70s over the thermal belt ridges. Regional
radar imagery has shown isolated convection earlier this morning
through south-central Ohio and adjoining West Virginia associated
with a stalled cold frontal boundary located under the stabilizing
influence of a high amplitude ridge. That ridge extends from the
Southeast US northward across the Great Lakes to near James Bay.
Upstream showers are noted from the mid-Tennessee Valley
northwestward into the Upper Midwest. This activity is associated
with a 500 hPa shortwave trough extending from Minnesota
southward to Missouri and Arkansas. A broad area of 2-plus inch
PWATs is advecting northward up the Mississippi Valley and over
western Kentucky and Tennessee ahead of this trough.

The upper level ridge will gradually shift east today and begin to
break down tonight as the 500 hPa shortwave troughing presses
eastward to over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Tuesday. HREF
and LREF mean PWATs rise to near 2.0 inches later today and
tonight over eastern Kentucky; however, the most favorable
combination of weak upper level forcing, instability, and low-
level moisture convergence with this feature will likely stay west
and north of the JKL CWA. The initial leading band of showers and
embedded thunderstorms, forced by a modest vorticity lobe, is
slated to reach the Lake Cumberland area around 13Z to 15Z but
will struggle to hold together and press eastward into the
lingering upper level ridging and drier air over the Central
Appalachians. In fact, it could very well be 21Z or later before
any notable precipitation chances reach the Big Sandy Basin.
Given recent dry weather, flash flood guidance (FFG) is robust,
generally greater than 2 inches in 1 hour and 2.5 inches in 3
hours. So while the high PWATs and deep warm cloud layer are
likely to support torrential downpours, limited forcing and
antecedent dry conditions should mitigate any notable hydro issues
today. An overall lull in the precipitation is likely tonight as
forcing shifts east and instability wanes. Another vort max
crosses the area on Tuesday and will interact with the juicy air
mass which by that time will be more firmly in place over the
entire CWA. This combined with renewed diurnal destabilization
will bring better rain chances (likely to categorical) area-wide.
Through 00z Wednesday, the 25th to 75th percentiles of the HREF
would support highly variable rainfall amounts of generally 0.1 to
1.5 inches of rain in the Big Sandy Basin to 0.5 to 2.0 inches
near Lake Cumberland. However, much higher localized amounts are
possible under the strongest and most persistent convective cores.
The latest HREF continues to favor the Cumberland River Basin as
the most likely portion of our area to pick up localized rainfall
amounts in excess of 2 inches. Weak flow today will limit the
overall severe threat. Shear increases slightly on Tuesday,
perhaps leading to more organized multicell thunderstorm
structures, though any severe threat would still remain low.

In sensible weather terms, clouds will thicken from the southwest
today with the first threat of showers arriving in the Lake
Cumberland area this morning and slowly spreading east into the
US-23 corridor by late afternoon or early evening. A few
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. It won`t be a washout for most
locations. In fact, it will still be quite hot over the eastern
half of the CWA with some of the communities in the Levisa and Tug
Fork valleys nearing 90F. Cooler daily max readings in the upper
70s to lower 80s can be expected near and west of I-75 where
clouds and showers move in sooner. Showers diminish the first
half of tonight, leaving a quiet second half for most. It will be
muggy and mild with lows in the 60s. For Tuesday, showers and
thunderstorms should become numerous to widespread again during
the late morning and afternoon. It will also be cooler for most
of the area with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s but with
muggy dew points near 70F.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 430 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026

The period is expected to begin with an upper level ridge centered
in the vicinity of the Carolinas and extending into the mid Atlantic
States to Quebec and another upper ridge centered in the Arklatex
region. In between, a slow moving trough should initially extend
from the Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley and TN Valley. Further west,
an upper level trough should be moving across the western Conus as
the period begins. At the surface, a frontal zone is expected to
extend from near the NC/SC border into the SOuthern Appalachians to
eastern Ky to western Great Lakes at that point. Deep moisture will
be in place near and head of the shortwave trough with 00Z LREF mean
progged in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range or 94th to 99th percentile.

Tuesday to Tuesday night, the axis of upper level ridging is progged
to shift off the eastern seaboard while the 500 mb trough axis
should gradually shift into the Appalachians and potential east of
eastern KY late. Some of the guidance, mainly GFS, has another
shortwave/MCS type feature potentially nearing the area late Tuesday
night. The sfc boundary is expected to move little and perhaps
linger across the eastern portion of the area and weaken. PW should
remain in the 97th percentile or higher for this time of year during
this timeframe as well. Storm motions should be rather slow, roughly
10 to 15 mph at the most and any additional rounds Tuesday into
Tuesday evening or Tuesday night on top of locations that could
receive heavier rain Monday to Monday night would have a risk of
localized flooding. WPC maintains a marginal risk for Excessive
Rainfall for Day 3, Tuesday to Tuesday night.

Wednesday to Thursday night, the upper trough axis should gradually
shift further to east of eastern KY and the Appalachians with at
least a period of brief height rises/shortwave shifting across the
Commonwealth later Wednesday to Wednesday night. Also during this
period, the upper level trough that will have began the period in
the western Conus will have migrated into the Plains/Central Conus
with a lead shortwave progged to reach the Great Lakes to mid MS
Valley. Although total moisture in the column will decrease somewhat
as ridge axis shifts across the area, with PW per the 00Z LREF
dropping back to the 90th to 95th percentile or the 1.5 to 1.7 inch
range. However, it will still be rather humid, with sfc dewpoints
are progged in the upper 60s to lower 70s range. Chances for
convection during these days should be highest on Wednesday with the
500 mb trough shifting east and the additional potential
MCS/convectively driven shortwave possibly tracking across eastern
KY as well. The degrees of height rises and loss of daytime heating
and decreasing instability will determine the extent of coverage of
any convection from late Wednesday evening through early Thursday
and that period should be a relative lull in activity. Pending the
ultimate degree of ridging and capping, isolated to scattered
showers and storms are probable particularly during peak heating on
Thursday and there could be another uptick Thursday night pending the
timing of the approaching shortwave and associated frontal zone.

Friday to Sunday, guidance has the shortwave trough crossing the
Central and Eastern Great Lakes and OH Valley including eastern KY
from Friday to Friday evening. There is quite a bit of spread in 500
mb heights over the upcoming weekend with ridging generally centered
in the Southern Plains to start the weekend gradually becoming
centered in the Rio Grande Valley to Mexico area. Further and north
an upper low is expected to meander across central portions of
Canada with a broad trough to its south and southwest. This would
result in generally west to southwest flow across the commonwealth.
The frontal zone may sag into eastern KY as the shortwave passes
Friday to Friday night and then become diffuse. Another frontal zone
may drop across the western and Central Great Lakes to mid MS Valley
and sections of the Plains to end the weekend. Mild and quite humid
weather should persist across the region with chances for convection
generally peaking each afternoon and evening. The greatest chances
for convection to end the week and over the weekend are forecast
with the shortwave trough Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026

VFR conditions prevailed across the JKL CWA at TAF issuance.
However, lower ceilings will gradually move from southwest to
northeast through the morning and afternoon hours as a slow-moving
storm system approaches in from Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Shower/storm chances increase starting with the southwestern
terminals after ~15-16z. This activity is poised to reduce
ceilings and visibilities to MVFR conditions and potentially IFR.
Expect light and variable winds to persist.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEERTSON