363
FXUS63 KJKL 181432
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1032 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs are expected to be about 15 degrees above normal today.

- A strong cold front will bring strong to potentially damaging
  wind gusts as it crosses the area on Sunday.

- Following the front, expect blustery conditions with gusty
  showers and falling temperatures on Sunday afternoon.

- Another round of strong, gusty winds is expected on Tuesday
  afternoon as a second, but dry cold front moves through.

- Much colder air will settle in for mid week, leading to the
  potential for frost in sheltered valleys on Tuesday and
  Wednesday nights.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025

Temperatures are warming quickly late this morning under mostly
sunny skies. Still anticipate widespread high temperatures in the
lower to middle 80s. Given increasing confidence for strong winds
late tonight and Sunday, an SPS has been hoisted for the entire
JKL CWA. A more comprehensive forecaster analysis is planned for
this afternoon`s short-term forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 555 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025

Early this morning, the axis of an upper level ridge extended from
the Caribbean across FL to the eastern Great Lakes to Quebec,
while another upper level ridge extended from pars of the
Pacific into portions of the western Conus. In between, an upper
level trough extended from Central portions of Canada south into
the Central Conus/Plains. Moving within the mean trough was a
shortwave trough that was approaching the TX and OK panhandles
vicinity while another shortwave was moving from MT and WY toward
the Dakotas/Northern Plains. At the surface, the axis of a ridge
of high pressure extended from the Southeast US coast into the
Northeast Conus. Meanwhile, a sfc low was located west of Hudson
Bay with a trailing cold front into the western Great Lakes to
the Southern Plains. Another secondary front preceded the more
northern mentioned shortwave and was moving across the Upper MS
Valley and moving into the Central Plains. High clouds along with
a few mid level clouds have been crossing the region overnight.
Deeper sheltered eastern valley locations have decoupled with
current readings in the mid to upper 40s while some patches of fog
have likely developed along the river valleys.

Today and tonight, the axis of the upper level ridge to the east
of the Commonwealth will shift to and then off of the eastern
seaboard. Meanwhile, the upper level trough axis will move east
and extend south from an upper low that treks into Ontario near
the MS Valley. The lead/preceding shortwave is progged to track to
the vicinity of the Ozarks this evening and into the Lower OH
Valley/Commonwealth overnight. This shortwave trough will move
east of eastern KY by midday on Sunday, with the 500 mb trough
axis moving across eastern KY late Sunday into Sunday evening.
Meanwhile, the initial cold front will more or less merge with
the one upstream and move to the Central Great Lakes to Lower OH
Valley region to southern TX through tonight. This boundary should
precede the initial shortwave mentioned above and cross eastern
KY through early to mid afternoon. One or more convective lines or
area of showers with possible embedded thunder should encroach on
eastern KY late tonight possibly before dawn and then move across
the area through the morning to midday. Behind the front, showers
should linger in advance of the 500 mb trough with breezy winds
with temperatures falling into the 50s.

925 mb winds per the 00Z HREF are expected to reach the 30 to
40KT+ range late tonight to Sunday morning while 850 mb winds
also per the 00Z HREF should reach the 35 to 55KT range during
that timeframe. Stronger convection should mix a considerable
amount of this momentum to the surface and despite the limited
instability strong to isolated to damaging wind gusts should
accompany any convective line. Outside of the stronger
convection, gusts into the 30 to 40 mph range appear probable. For
wind gusts in the grids opted to go above the NBM deterministic
values and blend toward the higher percentiles to reach values
suggested by BUFKIT momentum transfer of some of the guidance as
well as RRFS means. 00Z and 06Z HRRR and 00Z HREF means wind gusts
suggests higher gusts are possible. This scenario will continue
to be monitored. The threat for wind gusts inside and outside of
convection. Although PW rises into at least the 80th to 90th
percentile for this time of year, the quick storm motion and
rather short residence time of these values should keep rainfall
generally below one inch with current forecast values in the third
to three quarters of an inch range. The lower values should
occur in the areas downwind of the VA border/Pine Mtn where
downslope should cut into amounts in areas of Letcher toward Pike
counties.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 600 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025

Height rises/upper level ridging move into the OH Valley and
Great Lakes and Southeast for Sunday night through Monday with sfc
high pressure also moving across these same regions at this time.
The pattern remains rather active and somewhat zonal with this
ridging moving east of eastern KY on Monday night with another
trough, but a moisture starved one will reach the MS Valley late
Monday night and cross eastern KY on Tuesday into Tuesday night.
This will be preceded by a dry cold front. This front, especially
during peak heating behind it on Tuesday should mix some stronger
momentum to the sfc and wind gusts of at least 25 to 30 mph are
possible.

Upper ridging/height rises are progged to follow for Wednesday
into Thursday night. That ridge should begin to shift east of the
area to end the period. Sfc high pressure should build from the
Central conus into the Southeast/OH Valley and Southern
Appalachians from Tuesday night to Wednesday and work across the
area on Wednesday night. That airmass should be drier than recent
ones and clearing skies and light winds should allow for good
radiational cooling mainly in the southwest and western parts of
the area on Tuesday night while some clouds and mixiness may
linger further north and east. Some patchy frost is possible in
some of the more sheltered locations in the Cumberland Valley
that night. The first substantial chance for frost in sheltered
valleys areawide arrives for Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025

Passing disturbances should continue to bring high and some mid
level clouds during the first 6 hours of the period. Valley fog
with reductions to MVFR and IFR is also anticipated through
around 13Z or 14Z and K1A6, KBYL, and KI35 may be affect, through
the TAF sites will not be affected. Outside of that, VFR
conditions will prevail. However, following light and variable
winds through around 13Z, but the approach of a strong cold front
will bring increasing south to southwest winds Saturday peaking
between 5 and 12 KT through 22Z before winds become more southerly
and 10KT or less sustained. Increasing winds just off the surface
will bring a threat for low level wind shear to end the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP