418
FXUS63 KJKL 291704
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
104 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant fall-like weather continues through this weekend,
  featuring mild, sunny days and cool nights.

- Aside from the chance of a few sprinkles for a few locations
  this afternoon, dry weather should prevail through the weekend.

- Rain chances return for Labor Day though the middle of next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 104 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2025

The weak cold front is sagging through eastern Kentucky early
this afternoon and a robust cumulus field is developing across
most of the area. The tallest towering cumulus could produce
sprinkles through early evening, primarily south of the Mountain
Parkway.

UPDATE Issued at 944 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2025

Last lingering remnants of fog are quickly burning off in the
upper Cumberland valley, leaving skies mostly sunny. Latest
surface analysis suggests that the cold front is now roughly along
the I-64 corridor. Anticipate that a cumulus field will develop
later morning and early afternoon, especially ahead of this
southward sagging boundary. A few of the cumulus may become tall
enough to produce a few sprinkles this afternoon and early
evening, mainly south of the Mountain Parkway.

UPDATE Issued at 644 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2025

Scattered low clouds have been developing over central and
northern Kentucky ahead of a cold front moving southeast into
eastern Kentucky this morning. Increased cloud cover slightly to
account for this, with no other significant changes otherwise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2025

A cold front will slowly move south across the forecast area this
afternoon into the early evening on the south side of a mid-level
jet streak rounding the base of a mid-level cut-off low centered
over far southeastern Canada. Weakening northwesterly flow aloft
will then persist through the end of the short-term period
Saturday afternoon, with the primary mid-latitude jet stream
shifting well south of the area.

Models suggest a well-mixed atmosphere this afternoon with plenty
of dry air in the boundary layer below the expected cloud base
layer of around 7kft to 8kft. This will limit the potential for
any isolated shower activity to reach the ground. For this
reason, 1-hourly PoPs were kept below the 15 percent threshold
that would warrant mention in the point-and-click and text
forecasts. However, a few sprinkles or raindrops are certainly
possible.

After highs today in the upper 70s to mid-80s, temperatures will
only cool off a degree or two for Saturday, as the better push of
cooler air behind the front gets ushered quickly into the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast. Lows tonight will again fall into the
upper 40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2025

Weak cyclonic flow aloft persists over the Eastern U.S. the second
half of the weekend into at least the middle of next week, with a
weak mid-latitude jet stream remaining well displaced to the
south through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, low-level high
pressure will strengthen this weekend into early next week across
the northern and northeastern CONUS, increasing easterly and then
southeasterly flow along with increasing warm/moist advection
from the western Atlantic into the region.

The result of this will be a ramping up of PoPs from Sunday
(limited to the immediate VA border area) becoming more widespread
across eastern Kentucky by Monday and persisting through the
remainder of the long-term period Thursday night. As of right now,
the highest PoPs are depicted for Tuesday by the NBM as eastern
Kentucky is forecast to reside near a warm front extending
southwest to northeast across the area.

Of additional concern for the mid- and late-week period is a
digging jet stream and deep cut-off low diving southeast toward
the Upper Midwest and Upper Mississippi River Valley mid-week,
pushing a stronger cold front across the area sometime around
Thursday within a significant re-amplification of the upper
pattern. Would thus not be surprised if PoPs continue to trend
upwards for Wednesday and/or Thursday if models continue trending
in this direction. The bottom line is that this period is looking
increasingly more unsettled, but there are details on timing and
possible rainfall amounts to be resolved.

The NBM continues trending cooler for next week, especially for
daytime highs, as there seemingly becomes increasingly better
agreement among its constituent members that unsettled weather
returns to the region. Thus, it appears below normal temperatures
are expected to continue for at least the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2025

VFR CIGs will prevail, even with a weak cold front crossing the
area later this morning through this afternoon. Winds will remain
light through this morning, but will pick up in the afternoon to
5 to 10 kts from the northwest with the cold front passage before
diminishing to 5 kts or less from the northeast behind the cold
front tonight.

Fog is expected again in the sheltered valleys overnight, but is
currently not expected to impact the terminals.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC