600
FXUS63 KJKL 151341
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
941 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather will continue through the first half of the
  new week, with showers and thunderstorms expected on most days.

- Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible today, with gusty
  winds the main concern.

- Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms will bring a low-
  end threat of excessive rainfall, with isolated occurrences of
  high water or flash flooding possible into Monday.

- Look for temperature to climb distinctly above normal for
  daytime highs for the latter part of the new week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025

Fog wording was removed from the forecast for the remainder of the
day and hourly PoPs were freshened to be in line with the latest
CAM trends.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025

08Z sfc analysis shows a weak area of low pressure over Kentucky
early this morning amidst the warm and humid air mass. This is not
only keeping temperatures and dewpoints elevated but also
sustaining some isolated to scattered convection under partly
cloudy skies. Away from any showers or storms winds are light from
the south along with patches of fog where skies are clearer.
Temperatures and dewpoints are currently running in the 65 to 70
degree range for most sites. Expect conditions to remain the same
through dawn, and the fog development will have to be watched for
a potential SPS or NPW if it becomes more substantial.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict the initial 5h shortwave opening up and departing
to the northeast this morning before the next one sets up to enter
western Kentucky on Monday. This will mean that most of the mid
level energy exits the area later today with quieter conditions on
Monday along with an ever so slight uptick in heights. The still
fairly small model spread through Monday evening supported using
the NBM as the starting point for the forecast grids with minimal
adjustments needed - mainly to add in some timing details from the
latest CAMs for the PoPs and Wx grids through the end of the
holiday extended weekend.

Sensible weather features more in the way of diurnally enhanced
convection today and Monday as the air mass remains warm and humid
with no clear focusing mechanism for convection but also a dearth
of real limiting factors like a cap or warming aloft. Conditions
are expected to be similar tonight as they have been for the past
several with perhaps less in the way of convection and coverage
owing to the quieter mid levels. This could promote more in the
way of fog, especially if the clouds also thin out in response to
those height rises through the column.

The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
adjustments to the PoPs per the latest CAMs guidance for timing
and magnitude through Monday evening. As for temperatures (and
dewpoints) - again did not deviate far from the NBM guidance
through the period given the high moisture content.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 520 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025

The main adjustments to the extended were to restore some terrain
detail to the NBM temperatures each night after Thursday. Did
also keep a threat of showers and thunderstorms around into
Saturday afternoon with some uncertainty as to the ability of a
late week front to clear the threat out of the area entirely.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The period will start with the main prevailing westerlies aloft in
rather zonal flow across the Great Lakes and New England, with
a trough in weaker flow extending southward over the Mississippi
Valley. To the east of the trough subtle ridging is expected over
eastern KY. At the surface, a weak, nearly stationary frontal
boundary is forecast to be laid out near or just south of the Ohio
River along the northern border of KY, with a warm and humid air
mass still in place over our area. The ridging aloft, along with
stable surface air in the morning, will probably keep the first
part of Monday dry. However, latest model runs weaken the ridge
and shift the entire regime slowly eastward, which would allow
the trough to provide some upper level support for precip for the
later part of the day, and a likely POP is being carried. Loss of
instability in the diurnal cycle should allow for a decreasing
trend in precip Monday evening.

The upper trough will still be slowly approaching from the west on
Tuesday, and with another diurnal heating cycle, another increase
in convective precip is expected for the afternoon. The weak upper
trough should finally be moving to our east on Tuesday night, and
along with the diurnal loss of instability, a more pronounced
decrease in precip is expected.

Conditions aloft will be more benign on Wednesday, with weak and
relatively flat flow. At the surface, the prior frontal boundary
should be gone, but another cold front will be crossing the
Midwest and bringing us an increase in low level southwesterly
flow as the pressure gradient tightens in front of it. This front
will be supported by a slightly more significant upper level
trough moving east across the CONUS (moving onshore on the West
Coast on Monday). Without any change in air mass and no cap
expected, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms should
develop, but probably less coverage than the preceding couple of
days. The cold front and its supporting upper trough are forecast
to pass through on Thursday afternoon or evening, likely bringing
another round of showers and thunderstorms.

Behind the front, drier and somewhat cooler air will arrive for
Friday into Saturday, but the amount of cooling and drying is
unclear, with models not agreeing on the extent of strengthening
of the upper trough as it passes by. Regardless of the strength,
it should be enough to finally bring at least a couple days of
dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025

Scattered showers and storms continue to move through the
aviation forecast area this morning. These could bring lower
visibilities to any TAF sites they pass over - but for now
conditions are mostly VFR. Some limited fog will clear over the
next couple of hours along with the lowest of the clouds. Similar
to Saturday, the coverage of showers and storms increase going
into the afternoon, bringing gusty winds and lower visibilities
along with them. Later this evening the convection should be more
isolated, but any CIGs will probably fall in addition to the
development of fog due to the moist ground. Outside of storms,
winds are expected to be around 5 kts from the southwest -
becoming light again after dark.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF