053
FXUS63 KJKL 311930
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
330 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant and mostly dry weather is expected to continue through
  Labor Day, with only a small chance of showers or a
  thunderstorms over southern Kentucky on Monday afternoon.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, with
  higher rain chances following for Wednesday and Thursday ahead
  of an approaching cold front.

- Rainfall totals through Thursday are expected to remain under or
  around an inch for most locations.

- Below normal temperatures are expected on average through the
  period, with the coolest conditions mid to late next week behind
  the relatively strong cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 327 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025

High pressure has been dominate for a while now. But the tides are
starting to turn - whether that be fortunately or unfortunately. The
more autumn-like temperatures will be sticking around for a while
longer, however the weather will become more unsettled.

Surface high pressure will remain locked northeast of the state.
That part won`t change. However, a shortwave will turn to a upper-
level closed low by this afternoon just northeast of the state
(basically overtop of of the surface high), ultimately placing much
of the Ohio Valley in a trough that starts negative today and
becomes more positively tilted through the day Monday. Ultimately
this troughing pattern will continue to morph over the coming days,
but will remain in place across much of Kentucky. While no actual
frontal feature forms between two airmasses, even WPC notes a more
defined NE to SW oriented boundary across portions of the Ohio
Valley, including all of Kentucky. This boundary will remain nearly
stationary through the duration of the short-term period, and could
be the epicenter for potential convective development.

Speaking of convection, hi-res models are showing any ongoing
showers/storms along the Appalachians and our eastern border to
diminish overnight with the loss of lift and instability. Skies
should then remain dry through the rest of the night and into the
first part of the day Monday. By Monday afternoon, however, as
better mixing takes hold, it`s still looking like some showers and
maybe a thunderstorm could pop up along and southeast of this
developing boundary across portions of the southwestern CWA. These
too will dissipate heading into the overnight with the loss of
daytime heat/lift/instability.

Airmass modification/mostly sunny skies will continue the slight
warming trend through Monday, with winds continuing to be
predominately from the E or NE in the low levels (though there may
be some shifting to the SE on Monday in the southern half of the
CWA). Highs will be very similar to that of today, generally in the
low 80s. Today and tomorrow will likely be the warmest two days for
the next week. Overnight temps will also be generally in the low to
mid 50s both tonight and tomorrow night, with tomorrow being just a
bit warmer due to airmass modification. Do expect coolest
temperatures in the deepest valleys, however, expect the extent of
the fog to be lesser tonight compared to last night (after another
dry day), and possibly even less Monday night as clouds/moisture
advection increases and subsidence decreases.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025

At the onset of the extended forecast period, a broad trough will be
over the eastern third of CONUS. As a result, showers and isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, starting from the
southwest spreading north in coverage through the day. This is due
to some forcing ahead of a trough axis, which will be across Western
Kentucky through the day. Temperatures will range from the upper 70s
to near 80, under light winds. Winds will become southwesterly
through the afternoon.

Showers and a isolated thunderstorm or two are possible overnight
and into early Wednesday morning. Shower and storm chances will
increase through the day, with area wide rain likely. These showers
and storms are due to the trough axis being oriented across Central
and Eastern Kentucky through the day. Southwest flow will feed
moisture-rich air into the area. Dew points rise into the low to mid
60s. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, in the low 70s east of
the I-75 corridor, and mid to upper 70s along and west of it.

Through the day Wednesday another upper level low, upstream in
Southern Manitoba will descend southeast into the Western Ohio
Valley. By Wednesday afternoon a convective line is modeled to
develop along a cold front and move into the Ohio Valley. By
Wednesday evening this modeled line is expected to extend from the
Great Lakes down through the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This convective
line is expected to pass through Eastern Kentucky through Thursday,
brining another round of rain and thunderstorms. Temperatures rise
into the low to mid 70s. Thursday night, skies will clear out west
to east behind the frontal passage from earlier.

Friday, Mostly sunny skies can be expected with temperatures warming
into the mid to upper 70s under southwesterly winds. As the upper
level low previously in the Upper Great Lakes region begins to lift
back into Canada, a secondary frontal passage moves through the area
Friday night. Low end shower chances have been introduced across the
Bluegrass (15% chance) but confidence remains fairly low beyond
that.

Next weekend, dry conditions look to return to the area as high
pressure builds into the area. Temperatures warm into the mid to
upper 70s across the area during the day and cool into the upper 40s
to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025

VFR conditions are currently in place across all TAF sites and
expected to prevail through much of the period. A bit more mixing
today compared to yesterday is leading to some gusts between 10
and 15 knots, but these should quickly dissipate by the evening.
Fog has been decreasing a bit each night over the last few nights
as drier air remains in place and strongest subsidence is now
northeast of the state. That being said, still expect fog in the
deepest valleys, but only going scattered with no impacts to the
TAF sites. Some clouds may begin to work their way into the TAF
sites during the first half of the day Monday, generally VFR.
However, can`t rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm during
the afternoon just past the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JMW