367
FXUS63 KJKL 071438
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1038 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring an area of showers and perhaps some
  thunderstorms to the area today and tonight, followed by cooler
  weather to finish the week.

- There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall today through
  tonight, with isolated amounts of 2 to 3 inches of rain
  possible if storms move repeatedly over the same areas.

- Cooler and dry conditions are expected from Wednesday afternoon
  through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

At 1030 AM, heavier stratiform rain with embedded convection was
slowly transiting southern OH/IN and northern KY, mainly north
and northeast of a weak ~1013 mb surface low passing just south of
Henderson, KY. Regional radar imagery shows the precipitation
focused in a zone of isentropic upglide on the nose of an ~35 kt
850 hPa jet that is feeding ~2 inch PWAT air into the Commonwealth
where it then ascends into the right entrance region of an ~80 kt
300 hPa jet streak centered north of Dayton, OH. The RAP13 favors
a gradual uptick in the strength of the upper level forcing
through the afternoon as this system presses east, but overall
impacts should be offset by increasing propagation speed. With
unseasonably high PWATs coming into play as well as some very
weak, skinny MUCAPE, rainfall processes are likely to be
efficient. Spatially, the strongest and most persistent lifting is
generally modeled north of the Mountain Parkway this afternoon
and evening. Existing abnormally dry conditions and the lack of
antecedent rainfall are significant mitigating factors for
flooding concerns in this area. Additionally, the MUCAPE profiles
may be too skinny for maximizing the moist air mass`s full
potential. With that being said, there is potential for training,
and in those locations that receive multiple hours of sustained
moderate to briefly heavy rainfall, lower-end hydro concerns could
develop, especially along smaller streams by later this afternoon
and evening. South of the Mountain Parkway, the potential for any
minor hydro issues decreases with southward extent.

UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
along with the placement of the measurable rain showers early this
morning. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 455 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

08Z sfc analysis shows a wave of low pressure riding northeast
along a cold front pressing into northern Kentucky. This has
pumped higher moisture into the state with generally light showers
strafing parts of northeast Kentucky. Under plenty of clouds,
temperatures are fairly uniform across the area - in the mid to
upper 60s, for most. Meanwhile, amid light southeasterly winds,
dewpoints are running in the low to mid 60s. There has also been
some areas of fog accompanying the light rain in the I-64
corridor.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in pretty
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict deep toughing swinging south through the
Great Lakes and across the Ohio Valley today and tonight. This
will push decent height falls through Kentucky - particularly
tonight - along with a mid-level impulse pressing past the JKL CWA
on Wednesday morning. Any trailing energy then stays suppressed
to the south and west later in the day while the core of the
trough departs to the northeast. A passing 3h jet streak will
accompany the trough, as well, when it moves through Ohio later
today and tonight adding some enhancement to the lift. The model
spread is rather small concerning these key features supporting
using the NBM as the starting point of the grids with minimal
adjustments needed - mainly just to include the latest PoP
guidance from the CAMs consensus through Wednesday afternoon.

Sensible weather features a cold front passing through eastern
Kentucky by tonight bringing a cooler and drier air mass to
the state by the end of the short term forecast period. This
boundary will activate well above normal PW air for rounds of
showers and potential thunderstorms today into this evening.
Instability will be a limiting factor with thickening clouds
across the area today thanks to deep moisture in place. The
models have come into pretty good agreement on the heaviest rains
and training staying along or north of the I-64 corridor - with a
rather narrow swath of 1-3 inches - showing up in the guidance.
This area will need to be watched for potential training and
localized excessive rainfall. For the most part, this rain will
be beneficial for the entire area as we head into fire weather
season and the leaves start to pile up in the forests. Cooler
temperatures will also be a noticeable trait of this transition
with highs only in the low 70s today and stuck in the 60s on
Wednesday as low clouds linger. The low clouds and diminishing
showers tonight will make for one last sesasonably mild night of
this stretch. The bulk of the heavy rain threat occurs through the
day, today, with just leftover showers in the wake of the front
around in the southeast this evening. Will continue to highlight
the limited potential for isolated flooding in the HWO, on social
media, and via a partner email.

The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
adding in the higher resolution details from the CAMs for the
PoPs, thunder chances, and timing. Temperatures were kept fairly
uniform through Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 520 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

The main changes to the extended forecast this morning were to
enhance the terrain based differences of a ridge to valley split
for temperatures each night through next weekend, along with a
touch of extra drying each afternoon. PoPs are looking quite
limited during the latter part of the work week and into the
weekend.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Showers/thunderstorms end late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning as a cold front and upper trough move across from the west
and northwest. This will leave us with west-northwest flow aloft
and surface high pressure passing east over the Great Lakes on
Wednesday, sending us noticeably cooler and drier air.

Multiple shortwave troughs are expected to move southeast in the
flow aloft late in the week and consolidate into a complex upper
low next weekend somewhere over the Central Appalachians and Mid-
Atlantic regions, with the ECMWF and GFS in generally good
agreement. Along with this, there is development of a coastal
surface low that moves up the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coastline
while remaining offshore, perhaps taking on some subtropical
characteristics. Regardless, the new scenario favors precip being
confined to areas to our east. Thus, after Wednesday morning PoPs
remain generally at or below 10 percent through the duration of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

VFR conditions are holding on - though it is quite tenable at
KSYM - and will hold for another few hours at most sites before an
approaching low pressure system and a cold front brings lowering
CIGS. CIGS and VSBY will fall into a combination of MVFR and then
likely IFR/VLIFR by early afternoon. Along with decreased
CIGS/VSBY, showers and isolated thunderstorms increase in
coverage after 15Z and persist into the evening. Post frontal
later tonight will bring the worst aviation conditions for all
sites - below airport minimums. Winds will be largely light and
variable through the bulk of the period but convection could
bring gusty and erratic flow.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF